ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1574111142275821568

[Hammy]

18z Best Track with 40kt that is less than the 45kt at 12z.

AL, 09, 2022092518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 800W, 40, 1003, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

It probably hasn’t weakened. I don’t think there were any direct observations that supported 45 kt. But yeah a storm remaining this anemic and wasting all this time in an ideal environment is 2022 at its finest.

If it's struggling than clearly the environment isn't ideal. Storms that have these sorts of internal issues take days and days to recover, and today it's only begun that process.

[Patrick99]

Moving outside the track.

https://i.ibb.co/Hq32VFr/720db82547fa086d09eee9f8a28bbdfd85c14492302e472f410c57c221bc98d3.gif

Whats a few miles when trajectory makes a huge difference...weaker storm moving to the right, odd

Watch it pull an Irene, kinda move with the shear and come ashore at Cape Sable instead of Tampa. Not a forecast of course

[Frank P]

IMO, watching if Ian moves R of the track and the where he crosses Cuba will tell us the point on FL.

Almost looks like it’s going NNW on sat loops..

The 2:00 Intermediate Advisory still says WNW

I know right but go look at the vis loops, that is not WNW…imo

[SapphireSea]

Can I ask a stupid question? Been looking at the storm surge risk maps here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
It seems like in FL especially south of Ft Myers that a major could easily inundate 5-10 miles inland if not more.
My question is how widespread could these scenarios play out? I assume this map is the absolute worst case for each point on the map if a hurricane was perfectly placed to flood it. That's why it shows flooding in TX, LA, FL all at the same time - it's not responding to a specific storm. Is there a way to visualize what kind of hurricane would create the surge needed to flood a specific place? Or theoretical flooding for a theoretical storm? This map makes it hard to estimate because it just shows hundreds if not thousands of continuous square miles flooded up and down the coast without any way to see what's realistic.

Depends. Surge is determined by storm size, direction of approach, strength, and speed of approach (how much time onshore winds would be pointed at the area(s)). The map does assume good positioning/size for the storm of the selected strength, so it is indeed making assumptions. Much like a forecast it could be slightly overstating or understating risk given the local circumstances.

It disclaimers that you should look at the NHC/Local forecasting office for actual storm guidance since the factors could be drastically different than the assumptions.

[ElectricStorm]

Structure certainly looks much better than yesterday but convection is still shallow. With DMIN approaching I'm not expecting that to change much over the next several hours. It should finally get going sometime tonight, but obviously the longer it takes the better it is for those in the path. I'm still fully expecting this to become a major, but I'm starting to question if my original prediction of a 115kt peak might be a bit too high. Either way this is clearly still a dangerous storm and I hope everyone in the path is fully prepared.

Fingers crossed it continues to struggle

[jlauderdal]

Moving outside the track.

https://i.ibb.co/Hq32VFr/720db82547fa086d09eee9f8a28bbdfd85c14492302e472f410c57c221bc98d3.gif

Whats a few miles when trajectory makes a huge difference...weaker storm moving to the right, odd

Watch it pull an Irene, kinda move with the shear and come ashore at Cape Sable instead of Tampa. Not a forecast of course

Yeah that took sofla by surprise, that was also a very different in track forecasting

[pgoss11]

Almost looks like it’s going NNW on sat loops..

The 2:00 Intermediate Advisory still says WNW

I know right but go look at the vis loops, that is not WNW…imo

Yeah it doesn’t look WNW to my untrained eye. We’ll have to see what the NHC says at 5

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

[Frank P]

Moving outside the track.

https://i.ibb.co/Hq32VFr/720db82547fa086d09eee9f8a28bbdfd85c14492302e472f410c57c221bc98d3.gif

Whats a few miles when trajectory makes a huge difference...weaker storm moving to the right, odd

Either that is a bogus vortex spinning out of control, or we have a system moving NNW to N… I have no idea what it is doing.

[Craters]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

i’m 14 miles inland is that safe from wind and surge?

Well, a quick internet search for the elevation of Brooksville says that you're at roughly 194 feet above sea level. So, unless you're in a very deep gully that points toward the Gulf (!) and the Earth is about to undergo major crustal shifts,* you're safe from the surge. Wind, though, is another thing completely.

*See the movie 2012 for extreme examples.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

It's early. Remember when you were thinking this might be a top 10 record slowest ACE year not too long ago?
You know how quick that can change. Will it? Just have to wait and see.

[Jelmergraaff]

I may be wrong, but to me it seems like Ian is definitely intensifying. Starting to look like a well-oiled machine. At least the best it has looked so far.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

Yes most of the models had full blown hurricane by 2am this morning

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

Yes most of the models had full blown hurricane by 2am this morning

That's why the hurricane models are never good to go by with intensity.

[SapphireSea]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

The logic of the models is not wrong at all. The area should be conducive for RI. What they cannot model perfectly are local small meso complexities. It cannot resolve competing vortexes at different levels. Convection outflow from another mid-level or LL center higher can kill circulations the model is tracking as the de-facto center, and doesn't see it. There is not enough resolution for them to figure this out entirely.

[jlauderdal]

Moving outside the track.

https://i.ibb.co/Hq32VFr/720db82547fa086d09eee9f8a28bbdfd85c14492302e472f410c57c221bc98d3.gif

Whats a few miles when trajectory makes a huge difference...weaker storm moving to the right, odd

Either that is a bogus vortex spinning out of control, or we have a system moving NNW to N… I have no idea what it is doing.

Frank,

Its just a really loose system, maybe a wobble, you know how these things can go.

[skyline385]

I may be wrong, but to me it seems like Ian is definitely intensifying. Starting to look like a well-oiled machine. At least the best it has looked so far.

https://imgur.com/PhPhS00

Structure looks decent on Vis but there is barely any convection near the center on IR.

[Patrick99]

I may be wrong, but to me it seems like Ian is definitely intensifying. Starting to look like a well-oiled machine. At least the best it has looked so far.

https://imgur.com/PhPhS00

Structure looks decent on Vis but there is barely any convection near the center on IR.

It does look good on visible. But wow does it look shoddy on IR

[SFLcane]

Ian looks like scrambled eggs right now.