ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Craters]

When should I fly out of Miami if I want to avoid flying through a hurricane? Friday AM? Currently my flight is scheduled for Thur AM but this looks like really bad timing to get back west.

I'm flying back to Colorado so hoping they'd route to south across the Gulf as opposed to the normal panhandle flight path.

Thank you.

Ian should be well northwest of Miami by Thursday morning, but perhaps you can convince the captain to pass through Ian as an impromptu recon mission?

Hmm. Is it a JetBlue flight?

[Sciencerocks]

[Jelmergraaff]

IR still very unimpressive, convection dying off continues

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202209251745.gif

Okay, but at least it seems to concentrate more on where the LLC is instead of mostly NE of the storm (as earlier today).

[Kazmit]

IR still very unimpressive, convection dying off continues

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202209251745.gif

If it wasn't for the animation showing the spin, I would mistake it for an open wave.

[FireRat]

Believe it or not it's still working on fixing the environment, and over time appears to be making progress.

https://imgur.com/VyleCvC

Looks like he's trying to moisten his environment on the IR, certainly not as messy as he looks on IR because the visible imagery sure shows a very decent structure. It might just take one major convective blowup overnight and we may have a hurricane by tomorrow imo

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

Seems like this season has a 120kt curse. Both Earl and Fiona failed to reach their forecast 120kt peaks (although Fiona could get upgrade in post-season), and Ian sure is trying to best to fall below its earlier 120 kt forecast peak.

[skyline385]

IR still very unimpressive, convection dying off continues

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202209251745.gif

If it wasn't for the animation showing the spin, I would mistake it for an open wave.

heh thats what I was thinking looking at it too

[blp]

[tolakram]

Keeping my eye on convection firing near center. It looks good, then hits a ceiling and flattens out. I believe these mini towers will continue to fire and die but keep getting stronger and stronger over the next few hours. Maybe.

[pgoss11]

IR still very unimpressive, convection dying off continues

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202209251745.gif

Geesh! Is it possible it just totally decays? Didn’t see that option.

[KirbyDude25]

https://i.ibb.co/m6ty4Zq/ec949ae0c74ce1c2c356bbabcf5392f4acc0ebbbbf504676a19cf60bf00788b4.jpg

Looks like it's trying to build a core around 16N/80W, but it's still pretty weak. Also, I wonder if that big band in the NE is doing anything to hinder it

[skyline385]

Looks like Jamaica isnt getting much winds just rain from the outer bands

 https://twitter.com/MDR_Titan/status/1574132737849671686

[Blown Away]

After looking at some loops Ian is surely moving either straight north or NNW. Surely off track

Climatology favors a track S of Punta Gorda/Ft Myers for Hurricanes moving NE towards SWFL. JMHO ONLY!!

[sponger]

That looked like a fairly substantial North jog on vis!

[CronkPSU]

maybe the NHC and every model will get it wrong but I am thinking a lot of these posts about how it will never develop and why is it so weak will look pretty silly in 24 hours....it has more than enough time and favorable conditions to get to Cat 4

[Hammy]

Keeping my eye on convection firing near center. It looks good, then hits a ceiling and flattens out. I believe these mini towers will continue to fire and die but keep getting stronger and stronger over the next few hours. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/xAEESiM.gif

Looks like some northeasterly shear on that loop, is that having any impact?

[Sanibel]

It is possible Fiona's west side drew "sick air" down in the the West Caribbean...If so, prime climo should overcome that and finally start the engine...This unexpected lack of strengthening is what you would see with a combo of sick air and shear...


Porch cleared except for table and palm plant that can be done quickly if needed tomorrow...

[Stormcenter]

Would be great if Ian never gets it’s act together.

[johngaltfla]

From 11 PM advisory, NHC headline was 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...

Bit delayed I’d say.

Ian ain’t reading the forecasts. This stuff almost never follows expectations one way or the other.