ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Let’s say Ian’s track continues right of the original consensus, and it takes a Charley-like track. How does the UL and intensity forecast change? I remember Levi said yesterday how a further east track could put it in a better position relative to the UL flow and it could enhance the storm, but has that possibility changed?

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1574148598400286721




Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[CrazyC83]

Let’s say Ian’s track continues right of the original consensus, and it takes a Charley-like track. How does the UL and intensity forecast change? I remember Levi said yesterday how a further east track could put it in a better position relative to the UL flow and it could enhance the storm, but has that possibility changed?

That's how I see it too. The flow would be parallel with the wind shear, so it would act as an outflow channel depending on how it is aligned and that could at least hold its strength if not intensify it. If it is moving due north past about 28°N, it would likely rapidly weaken.

[eastcoastFL]

Let’s say Ian’s track continues right of the original consensus, and it takes a Charley-like track. How does the UL and intensity forecast change? I remember Levi said yesterday how a further east track could put it in a better position relative to the UL flow and it could enhance the storm, but has that possibility changed?

I think it will be less likely to encounter shear that would be in the northern GOM. If it’s pulled across Fl by the trough it won’t be influenced by that ridge over Texas which was going to cause some of that shear to degrade it upon landfall near the panhandle.

[tropicwatch]

Convection looks a lot better now than it did before noon.

[Teban54]

The earlier convective burst seems to be slowly fading, but new mini towers are lighting up around the circulation:

[skyline385]

Let’s say Ian’s track continues right of the original consensus, and it takes a Charley-like track. How does the UL and intensity forecast change? I remember Levi said yesterday how a further east track could put it in a better position relative to the UL flow and it could enhance the storm, but has that possibility changed?

Almost all of the strong members on the ensembles are westward ones so probably not too strong if it curved east. However a scenario like Charlie is always on the table with extremely warm waters near the Florida coast and it being away from the shear and dry air in the northern Gulf.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[Coolcruiseman]

Now this is kinda funny. My local NOAA forecast has had “tropical storm conditions possible” put up taken down and put back up twice today. Last time they were up for wed and wed night now it’s Wed night - thu night

Wednesday NightTropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
ThursdayTropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday NightTropical storm conditions possible. A 40 percent chance

Listed for Wed/Wed Night/Thur/Thursday night here.

[beachnut]

Can I ask a stupid question? Been looking at the storm surge risk maps here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
It seems like in FL especially south of Ft Myers that a major could easily inundate 5-10 miles inland if not more.
My question is how widespread could these scenarios play out? I assume this map is the absolute worst case for each point on the map if a hurricane was perfectly placed to flood it. That's why it shows flooding in TX, LA, FL all at the same time - it's not responding to a specific storm. Is there a way to visualize what kind of hurricane would create the surge needed to flood a specific place? Or theoretical flooding for a theoretical storm? This map makes it hard to estimate because it just shows hundreds if not thousands of continuous square miles flooded up and down the coast without any way to see what's realistic.

Here's a decent surge tool you can use until the NHC puts their own storm surge tool on their advisories 48 hours prior to landfall.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

This lets you choose the specific storm and the specific NHC update. Currently it's showing update 10, but the latest 5pm is update 11. In my experience this tool takes about 45-60 mins to update to the latest advisory.

Bonita is very low as I'm sure you already know. There's always a lot of flooding issues in the Imperial River area and a strong surge will amplify that. Basically anywhere west us US41 is bad. During Irma we were showing 9+ of surge in the south Cape. I normally don't want to leave but that was a no-brainer. We ended up staying just east of I-75 near FGCU. Stay safe!

[tolakram]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

[idaknowman]

Hillsborough County (Tampa area) public schools:

"Our district has been working closely with the county’s emergency operations center in preparation of Tropical Storm Ian’s impact on our region. County emergency officials have made the decision to activate many of our schools starting Monday as storm shelters to house community members who will be required to evacuate their homes.

Because of this decision, the district has no choice but to close schools and suspend all after-school programs and extra-curricular activities beginning tomorrow, Monday September 26 through Thursday, September 29."

[Poonwalker]

Ian sucked in a bit of dry air earlier and what I have seen in developing systems is they often have to “wet” the surrounding area for insulation from this before they can intensify. You can see that NW area in question. It looks like a weak dissipating ULL. You can see it now starting to get enveloped with Ian’s moisture and mixed out.

[LarryWx]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/DoeCQtV.gif

It likely is. I think this is going to lead to a very interesting DMAX.

[Iceresistance]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/DoeCQtV.gif

It seems like you're pessimistic, but for a good reason.

I'm now unsure on what Ian will do next.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1574156669730406400

[tropicwatch]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/DoeCQtV.gif

It seems like you're pessimistic, but for a good reason.

I'm now unsure on what Ian will do next.

Maybe is the operational word for now

[Jelmergraaff]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/DoeCQtV.gif

It likely is. I think this is going to lead to a very interesting DMAX.

Can't wait to see what Ian looks like tomorrow morning, I honestly have no clue. Now time to go to bed (local time is 12.08 AM) after 12 hours of work today. Usually I wake up at 8 AM CEST, which would be the 2 AM EDT update of the NHC I believe.

[Nimbus]

Can I ask a stupid question? Been looking at the storm surge risk maps here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
It seems like in FL especially south of Ft Myers that a major could easily inundate 5-10 miles inland if not more.
My question is how widespread could these scenarios play out? I assume this map is the absolute worst case for each point on the map if a hurricane was perfectly placed to flood it. That's why it shows flooding in TX, LA, FL all at the same time - it's not responding to a specific storm. Is there a way to visualize what kind of hurricane would create the surge needed to flood a specific place? Or theoretical flooding for a theoretical storm? This map makes it hard to estimate because it just shows hundreds if not thousands of continuous square miles flooded up and down the coast without any way to see what's realistic.

Here's a decent surge tool you can use until the NHC puts their own storm surge tool on their advisories 48 hours prior to landfall.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

This lets you choose the specific storm and the specific NHC update. Currently it's showing update 10, but the latest 5pm is update 11. In my experience this tool takes about 45-60 mins to update to the latest advisory.

Bonita is very low as I'm sure you already know. There's always a lot of flooding issues in the Imperial River area and a strong surge will amplify that. Basically anywhere west us US41 is bad. During Irma we were showing 9+ of surge in the south Cape. I normally don't want to leave but that was a no-brainer. We ended up staying just east of I-75 near FGCU. Stay safe!

That tool forecasts 5 to 8 feet of surge in Tampa bay with the current cat 3 intensity and 5 PM track, schools are closing and people are getting prepared.

[aspen]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/DoeCQtV.gif

It seems like you're pessimistic, but for a good reason.

I'm now unsure on what Ian will do next.

Ian will be a tropical cyclone. It will reach a peak intensity and take a track into a location.

[Iceresistance]

Maybe starting some legit core building. Maybe.

https://i.imgur.com/DoeCQtV.gif

It seems like you're pessimistic, but for a good reason.

I'm now unsure on what Ian will do next.

Ian will be a tropical cyclone. It will reach a peak intensity and take a track into a location.

It's not that, I'm unsure on how strong it will be.