ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Last visible capture. Recon there at the perfect time.



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Keldeo1997]

Looks like Ian is about to fix its convection problem

[Poonwalker]

Amazing. Looked unwell all day yet was able to get the pressure way down.

There was an ULL to his NW funneling a dry band. Ian is finally injesting it. That also explains the north component we were seeing, a mini fujiwara. It’s now off to the races.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021831616605200516/1023729085475729428/Screenshot_131.png

Looks like Ian is about to fix its convection problem

Still needs that one convective bomb to align the center.

[AdamFirst]

This storm is way further north than i expected. Nearly at 17 N?

[Hammy]

Last visible capture. Recon there at the perfect time.

https://i.imgur.com/KkTMtOP.gif

Is that in the eyewall vicinity?

[CrazyC83]

What a difference 3 hours makes! It looked good as dead this afternoon, and now...taking off fast. The winds will probably catch up soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Last visible capture. Recon there at the perfect time.

https://i.imgur.com/KkTMtOP.gif

Is that in the eyewall vicinity?

Tracing the energy around, it looks to be the northern eyewall

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Intense hot towers firing off now. Might be the beginning of the RI phase for Ian.

[AJC3]

I guess recon flights are able to fly over Cuba now since the newest recon is doing just that.

It's been this way for at least two decades. If things are the same as they were for my flight in 2000, they won't allow the planes to get any lower than FL170 (17KFT) over La Habana airspace, but will let them go as low as they need to outside of that. Our LLC fix flight for Helene was as low as 1KFT over western Cuba.

[Iceresistance]

Recon's 2nd pass could be a scary one, if the pressure gradient is already very tight and is stronger than expected? I'm thinking that the second pass has the lowest extrapolated pressure in the low 980s.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Never bet against the I storm. Especially where it is located; the most favorable part of the Atlantic is the Nw Caribbean.

[johngaltfla]

Last visible capture. Recon there at the perfect time.

https://i.imgur.com/KkTMtOP.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Ian is definitely getting his you know what together. Odds are we wake up to a nightmare at 0500.

[MetroMike]

Its all coming home to me. Jim Cantore is doing live shots on the beach in Clearwater.

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow 989-990 mb. Looking like a strengthening trend for sure.

[Hurricane Mike]

New video update on Ian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR1Sjn6e_1Q

[johngaltfla]

Its all coming home to me. Jim Cantore is doing live shots on the beach in Clearwater.

Nothing personal, but Thank Gawd! I was afraid you'd say Siesta Key.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1574173272408674304

[Teban54]

19.5 hours ago, I wrote this:

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

This is the closest I can find. Here is Eta about half an hour before it was named:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7406/Pvnvlz.gif
16 hours later, it was at 50 kts with a developing eyewall. It reached the (official) peak intensity of 130 kts another 30 hours later.

Ian's current appearance for comparison:
https://i.postimg.cc/fyXyr70y/goes16-vis-swir-09-L-202209250005.gif

19.5 hours later, Ian seems to be at 50 kts per recon, and the latest convective bursts hint at a developing eyewall, or at least one that will soon develop. (Edit: Confirmed, yes, that's an eyewall.)

Like clockwork

[Stormlover1970]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021831616605200516/1023729085475729428/Screenshot_131.png

Looks like Ian is about to fix its convection problem

looks like a mess to me