ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1574198748434923520

I won’t be surprised to see a very similar storm in terms of structure and intensity in the morning, i.e. moderate t.s.

[wx98]

True center pass found the pressure still ~990. Let's see what the NE side holds in the wind department.

[d3v123]

00Z TVCN is in - landfall west of Tampa near Clearwater before sunrise on Thursday. I know NHC will be adjusting their track east. I don't think the consensus is done shifting east, though. It would not surprise me at all if it moves inland south of Tampa. That would be a lot better for Tampa than the current TVCN. If you live anywhere in that region, prepare for a hurricane. Intensity is still a bit question mark, but even an average-sized Cat 2 could put 14-18 feet of water into northern Tampa Bay.

I appreciate your insight every storm! I’m in the Bradenton area and feeling unsure of when to make the call to board up the house but seems like that it’s likely

[SouthernBreeze]

00Z TVCN is in - landfall west of Tampa near Clearwater before sunrise on Thursday. I know NHC will be adjusting their track east. I don't think the consensus is done shifting east, though. It would not surprise me at all if it moves inland south of Tampa. That would be a lot better for Tampa than the current TVCN. If you live anywhere in that region, prepare for a hurricane. Intensity is still a bit question mark, but even an average-sized Cat 2 could put 14-18 feet of water into northern Tampa Bay.

Crossing FL & into Atlantic has been out of the picture for a while. I doubt the E shifts would be enough bring that possibility back, would it?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1574199965919940610

[wxman57]

00Z TVCN is in - landfall west of Tampa near Clearwater before sunrise on Thursday. I know NHC will be adjusting their track east. I don't think the consensus is done shifting east, though. It would not surprise me at all if it moves inland south of Tampa. That would be a lot better for Tampa than the current TVCN. If you live anywhere in that region, prepare for a hurricane. Intensity is still a bit question mark, but even an average-sized Cat 2 could put 14-18 feet of water into northern Tampa Bay.

I appreciate your insight every storm! I’m in the Bradenton area and feeling unsure of when to make the call to board up the house

Bradenton is precisely where I think the track will end up when all is said and done. Conditions there will begin deteriorating by Wednesday afternoon. I would definitely board up. Prepare for long-duration power outages and HOPE things change.

[tolakram]

[cheezyWXguy]

True center pass found the pressure still ~990. Let's see what the NE side holds in the wind department.

This pass makes it clear that the previous one was a fluke. Hard to believe, but the difference between the extrap of 988.5 and 994.0 is hardly more than a tenth of a degree latitude. That said, Ian is still working on getting organized, as the windshift did not occur at the lowest extrap pressure, and the windfield is still very asymmetrical.

[ThetaE]

https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1574198748434923520

Wait, is radar data from recon missions publicly available somewhere?

[Nimbus]

Recon had a parallel wind barb at -81.1 center is just north of 17.1N.
So WNW over the last 2 fixes, could be a small primary center instead of a mesovort rotating around now.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 992/27, supports 989-990

[Hammy]

Eye drop 992/27, supports 989-990

So either this is up and down in pressure and stair-stepping, or more likely they missed the center to the south earlier and its moving generally NW with steady pressure

[otowntiger]

00Z TVCN is in - landfall west of Tampa near Clearwater before sunrise on Thursday. I know NHC will be adjusting their track east. I don't think the consensus is done shifting east, though. It would not surprise me at all if it moves inland south of Tampa. That would be a lot better for Tampa than the current TVCN. If you live anywhere in that region, prepare for a hurricane. Intensity is still a bit question mark, but even an average-sized Cat 2 could put 14-18 feet of water into northern Tampa Bay.

I appreciate your insight every storm! I’m in the Bradenton area and feeling unsure of when to make the call to board up the house

Bradenton is precisely where I think the track will end up when all is said and done. Conditions there will begin deteriorating by Wednesday afternoon. I would definitely board up. Prepare for long-duration power outages and HOPE things change.

I too am grateful for you respected and professional insight on this forum. Regarding your forecast of potential landfall in Bradenton how far inland do you think it will get from there? I’m interested in knowing what kind of effects we may get in Orlando. Thanks!

[InfernoFlameCat]

We have more rotating hot towers coming in hot. Ian has a very good spiral structure set up.

[cycloneye]

Some 50,s that include 55kt at flight level and 53 at SMFR.

472
URNT15 KWBC 260104
NOAA3 1109A IAN HDOB 31 20220926
005430 1708N 08057W 6950 03098 9900 +138 +104 183034 039 040 001 00
005500 1710N 08056W 6953 03094 9919 +122 +116 157044 046 050 000 00
005530 1712N 08054W 6955 03099 9929 +122 +107 151049 051 053 000 00
005600 1714N 08053W 6952 03110 9946 +115 +102 148052 054 053 000 00
005630 1716N 08052W 6951 03117 9966 +106 +102 143051 053 052 000 00
005700 1718N 08051W 6949 03126 9975 +104 +102 141049 051 046 001 00
005730 1720N 08050W 6951 03126 9979 +104 +102 145050 051 045 002 00
005800 1722N 08049W 6951 03132 9986 +101 +101 145049 051 045 002 00
005830 1724N 08048W 6953 03129 9987 +102 +100 141047 049 044 001 00
005900 1726N 08046W 6949 03137 9989 +102 +113 137048 050 044 005 01
005930 1728N 08045W 6954 03133 9990 +102 +112 139049 052 044 005 01
010000 1729N 08044W 6947 03143 9996 +099 +104 141048 049 041 001 01
010030 1731N 08043W 6952 03141 0003 +096 +097 135049 049 040 000 01
010100 1733N 08042W 6949 03146 0008 +094 +092 137048 049 039 000 00
010130 1735N 08041W 6953 03145 0010 +097 +090 137048 049 040 000 00
010200 1737N 08040W 6947 03154 0013 +097 +082 133048 049 041 000 00
010230 1739N 08039W 6952 03150 0014 +099 +076 132051 051 039 000 00
010300 1741N 08038W 6954 03147 0012 +100 +076 133051 051 040 000 03
010330 1743N 08037W 6949 03156 0018 +099 +079 135052 053 040 000 00
010400 1745N 08036W 6947 03164 0023 +098 +076 135053 055 038 000 00

[MarioProtVI]

Aaaaand there he goes.

[NAVAIDNICK]

00Z TVCN is in - landfall west of Tampa near Clearwater before sunrise on Thursday. I know NHC will be adjusting their track east. I don't think the consensus is done shifting east, though. It would not surprise me at all if it moves inland south of Tampa. That would be a lot better for Tampa than the current TVCN. If you live anywhere in that region, prepare for a hurricane. Intensity is still a bit question mark, but even an average-sized Cat 2 could put 14-18 feet of water into northern Tampa Bay.

I appreciate your insight every storm! I’m in the Bradenton area and feeling unsure of when to make the call to board up the house

Bradenton is precisely where I think the track will end up when all is said and done. Conditions there will begin deteriorating by Wednesday afternoon. I would definitely board up. Prepare for long-duration power outages and HOPE things change.

For an average sized storm, how far will the hurricane force winds extend from the center? I'm definitely feeling too close for comfort being just 40 miles South of Bradenton.

[Laser30033003]

anyone have any idea when they will start evacuations..???? I'm in Pinellas and there are alot of people here .....

[KC7NEC]

anyone have any idea when they will start evacuations..???? I'm in Pinellas and there are alot of people here .....

In an interview on TWC an Emergency Manager said likely tomorrow starting with voluntary evacuations aimed at getting tourists out then Tuesday moving to mandatory.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Sun goes down, hot towers go up. Ian’s revving it up!!