ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The intensity looks to be 55 kt with that data, and yes I agree with 989 mb.

[Poonwalker]

Here we go! CDO incoming.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hillsborough County schools have effectively completely shut down for the remainder of the week.

[Dean4Storms]

Lift off, core is developing good now and just in time for some of the highest OHC. Kaboom!

[Nimbus]

Eye drop 992/27, supports 989-990

So either this is up and down in pressure and stair-stepping, or more likely they missed the center to the south earlier and its moving generally NW with steady pressure

Looks like a pinhole pressure gradient now.
Over 3 hours Ian traveled about .6 degrees west for .4 degrees gain in latitude.
So still on track to pass west of the Isle of Youth.

[wxman57]

I appreciate your insight every storm! I’m in the Bradenton area and feeling unsure of when to make the call to board up the house

Bradenton is precisely where I think the track will end up when all is said and done. Conditions there will begin deteriorating by Wednesday afternoon. I would definitely board up. Prepare for long-duration power outages and HOPE things change.

I too am grateful for you respected and professional insight on this forum. Regarding your forecast of potential landfall in Bradenton how far inland do you think it will get from there? I’m interested in knowing what kind of effects we may get in Orlando. Thanks!

If it moves inland near or just south of Tampa, then Orlando could see strong tropical storm-force wind and gusts to hurricane strength. That's assuming it's a hurricane when it makes landfall. Nothing is guaranteed as far as intensity. Intensity is what is most uncertain with this storm. I expect WDW to close on Thursday. We'll be making our annual trip there for the Halloween party the week of the 22nd. Hope it doesn't hit too hard.

[aspen]

The entire storm’s structure is rapidly improving. It’s only been a few hours, but now Ian has a sense CDO and a compact eyewall, and all of the distant outer bands that has probably competed with the core are fading away. All of a sudden we have a compact, rapidly organizing storm in an exceptionally favorable environment with 24-30+ hours left over water. A decent chance we’ll see a major before landfall tomorrow night or early Tuesday….unless Ian trips over itself and its structure collapses.

[Michele B]

anyone have any idea when they will start evacuations..???? I'm in Pinellas and there are alot of people here .....

You don't have to wait and be told to evacuate.

In fact, if you feel you should evac, you probably want to do it sooner rather than wait until everybody is told to evac and you end up in a massive traffic jam!

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol I thought we knew better than to analyze every single new frame of satellite imagery to determine how a storm will evolve! What we know is that Ian is currently a tropical storm that is going to intensify over the next 48 hours into a hurricane -- 10 minute incremental changes of a TC's satellite appearance mean less than nothing at this point to help us predict the eventual outcome. I've been compulsively refreshing my weather tabs at least every few minutes too, but I think it's important not to allow the momentary dopamine bursts we get from seeing each new piece of information to affect our overall perception of the situation

You make a very good point here; iirc from last year, this is what some people did with Ida (every little microscopic negative trend they saw meant the storm would fall behind expectations), and the same folks ended up being very surprised once the storm started to really intensify.

[Frank P]

Center looks closed per CI radar

[Tropics Guy]

Lift off, core is developing good now and just in time for some of the highest OHC. Kaboom!

Agree, Looks like the core is developing now, low shear, high OHC environment in the NW Carib.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/Shitp0stmaster/status/1574210978820067330

[Keldeo1997]

C15. Not pinhole yet but might get there

[birdwomn]

I wouldn't say shell, theyre weren't cake walks.. I live near the beaches in Pinellas. Got 70 mph winds from Frances and Jeanne and both took my power put for 6 days each. Irma was around 90 mph here on the beach and it took my power out for 5 days. Yes not a major but we've had enough taste to know what it can be like and should know how much worse it could be except the many newbies to the area. Locals have no excuses. Hurricane Elena plus many other high end tropical storms

Actually, being a native Floridian and living in Pinellas County near the beach for the last 35 years, Irma was a wake up call for many folks around here. We used both Irma and Charley as practice runs to put the evacuation plans we made when we moved to this house into motion. We worked out plan and our plan worked. Others did not and ended up in shelters at the last minute - they were very frightened and learned quite a bit. As of now, we are planning to stay put this time.

Were you guys there for Wilma?

Yes

[Teban54]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1023771206182248558/Screenshot_133.png

C15. Not pinhole yet but might get there

Comparing this to the Cayman radar, it looks like the eyewall might have closed soon after this pass by 1:23z.

Edit: After checking the recent radar frames, maybe not.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IR presentation is improving at a breathtaking rate.

Went from "scrambled eggs", as one user eloquently put it, to an intensifying high end tropical storm. Complete with a CDO and good outflow.

[caneman]

Actually, being a native Floridian and living in Pinellas County near the beach for the last 35 years, Irma was a wake up call for many folks around here. We used both Irma and Charley as practice runs to put the evacuation plans we made when we moved to this house into motion. We worked out plan and our plan worked. Others did not and ended up in shelters at the last minute - they were very frightened and learned quite a bit. As of now, we are planning to stay put this time.

Were you guys there for Wilma?

Yes

Yes. Thought Wilma would hit us and it dipped or went further South. Been sooo many close calls here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Those towers in the cdo are clearly embedded in the eyewall. If this isn’t a hurricane now, it won’t be long before it is. When’s the next recon?

[birdwomn]

anyone have any idea when they will start evacuations..???? I'm in Pinellas and there are alot of people here .....

You don't have to wait and be told to evacuate.

In fact, if you feel you should evac, you probably want to do it sooner rather than wait until everybody is told to evac and you end up in a massive traffic jam!

I also live in Pinellas and would be packing now if I was leaving - but that has been my plan for 35 years.

[caneman]

anyone have any idea when they will start evacuations..???? I'm in Pinellas and there are alot of people here .....

You don't have to wait and be told to evacuate.

In fact, if you feel you should evac, you probably want to do it sooner rather than wait until everybody is told to evac and you end up in a massive traffic jam!

I also live in Pinellas and would be packing now if I was leaving - but that has been my plan for 35 years.

Been here 46 years. The only one I ever evacuated for was Charley only to end up in the eyewall in Kissimmee. Won't do it again.