ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1901 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:00 pm

Outflow is extremely impressive and continuing to expand...

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1902 Postby MGC » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:03 pm

Convection really starting to pop, intensifying tropical cyclone......MGC
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1903 Postby birdwomn » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:03 pm

caneman wrote:
birdwomn wrote:
Michele B wrote:
You don't have to wait and be told to evacuate.

In fact, if you feel you should evac, you probably want to do it sooner rather than wait until everybody is told to evac and you end up in a massive traffic jam!


I also live in Pinellas and would be packing now if I was leaving - but that has been my plan for 35 years. :)


Been here 46 years. The only one I ever evacuated for was Charley only to end up in the eyewall in Kissimmee. Won't do it again.


You have to plan your evacuation options very carefully or that is exactly what will happen. Another reason you need to have a really well-thought-out plan with lots of options for variables. My theory is that if I leave, I want running water, AC, and Internet.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1904 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:06 pm

Looks like Ian is finally prime for blast off just in time for the warmest waters the Atlantic has to offer.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1905 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:12 pm

birdwomn wrote:
caneman wrote:
birdwomn wrote:
I also live in Pinellas and would be packing now if I was leaving - but that has been my plan for 35 years. :)


Been here 46 years. The only one I ever evacuated for was Charley only to end up in the eyewall in Kissimmee. Won't do it again.


You have to plan your evacuation options very carefully or that is exactly what will happen. Another reason you need to have a really well-thought-out plan with lots of options for variables. My theory is that if I leave, I want running water, AC, and Internet.


It was planned out thoroughly but you can't account for every variable that can take place. There is always an unknown element or no prior case study, etc.. Much was learned from Charley for experts as well such as last minute jogs, the extent of inland wind damage, better guildines for evacuation, etc..
Last edited by caneman on Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1906 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:12 pm

Guess Jim has decided to go to Clearwater, time for evacuations?

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1574217798548684801





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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1907 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:13 pm

skyline385 wrote:Guess Jim has decided to go to Clearwater, time for evacuations?

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1574217798548684801?s=46&t=AHDn9B26Y8x67LdEQ8mIoQ


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GO HOME CANTORE!!! Get outta here!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1908 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:14 pm

Looks like AF301 is about to take off, will probably be there in a few hours
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1909 Postby wx98 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:15 pm

An AF recon plan should be leaving shortly.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1910 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1911 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:19 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Looks like AF301 is about to take off, will probably be there in a few hours

TCPOD says 1:30 AM Eastern, or 05:30Z. Expected to be on station from 04Z to 08Z. For most of us, we'll be seeing this flight's data after we wake up
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1912 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:21 pm

Ian has a good shot at Cat 5. nothing stands in its way now.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1913 Postby skillz305 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:24 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Ian has a good shot at Cat 5. nothing stands in its way now.



That’s pretty scary to think about. Any landfall in west Florida, effects would be felt on the eastern coast as well. Always stay vigilant.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1914 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:29 pm

Image

Image

5pm says Ian is to reach 17.3N at 0600, IMO he has or is about to pass that latitude.
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1915 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:29 pm

Oh man. Ian is really exploding now. Likely close to if not a hurricane at this point. -80C band is wrapping around the center.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1916 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:30 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Looks like AF301 is about to take off, will probably be there in a few hours

My guess is that they’ll find a mid-low 980s hurricane during the first pass or two. Extrapolated pressures were already in the upper 980s during this NOAA flight.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1917 Postby CryHavoc » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:30 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/02Q290qw/goes16-vis-swir-09-L-202209252355.gif [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dQh0G9Lj/D3776663-A9-C5-49-DC-808-F-938-FF51-D3-D48.jpg [/url]

5pm says Ian is to reach 17.3N at 0600, IMO he has or is about to pass that latitude.


That's definitely the series I've been looking for that seems to indicate sustained convection/rotation. He's finally powering up for sure.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1918 Postby drewschmaltz » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:31 pm

Hurricane Delta went from tropical storm to category 4 in 36 hours. In a very similar path in a very similar area. It sure will be interesting to see what happens over the next 36 hours with Ian.

If anyone would put together a side by side, I'd be very curious to see it. Just how similar are the conditions and area?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1919 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/02Q290qw/goes16-vis-swir-09-L-202209252355.gif [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dQh0G9Lj/D3776663-A9-C5-49-DC-808-F-938-FF51-D3-D48.jpg [/url]

5pm says Ian is to reach 17.3N at 0600, IMO he has or is about to pass that latitude.

That isn't the center
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1920 Postby sikkar » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:34 pm

Greetings. I live 30 miles south of Jacksonville on the coast. Should I be worried more about the winds or flooding as of right now?
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