ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[typhoonty]

I've always been interested in weather, but Charley made this my lifelong passion. We had to evacuate our house just NE of Sanibel Island with hurricane force gusts present. I wanted to learn all I could to prevent that harrowing experience from happening again to everyone.

And now I'm here, 18 years later, with seemingly the same situation. However, Ian is MUCH more dangerous due to it's size. And today I saw Facebook posts from people declaring that we were "all good" because Fort Myers is (still) out of the cone. It makes me sick to my stomach. I've always had a landfall point north of Fort Myers and south of Cedar Key.

The cone needs to change, we can try and explain what it actually means until we're blue in the face. People still think the cone means danger and outside of the cone means no danger. So we need to widen the cone by increasing the % chance that the center is in the cone or do dynamic cone sizes.

This morning, Orange Beach Alabama was in the cone, and Fort Myers wasn't. And exactly 0 degreed meteorologists would be able to come up with a reason that anywhere in Alabama had a higher threat level than Fort Myers.

I just hope the panic level I see tomorrow in Fort Myers doesn't give me PTSD.

/rant

[redingtonbeach]

Back late ‘60’s (early 70’s?) growing up here in Redington Beach, there was a hurricane that went north in the Gulf not too far offshore (100 miles— not sure, I was a young teen). The cain stalled slightly pushing water into the west coast beaches. My dad was on the hurricane watch party and allowed me to stay. The next day, I cruised up and down Gulf Blvd in my family’s 15’ boat from St. Pete Beach to Clearwater Beach - there was more than 3’ of water. Our point home on the intracoastal that was kind of high still had 2’ of water in the Florida room. I have to imagine Ian will produce similar, if not deeper, totals.

[dpep4]

Huh, so the next Sunday NIght Football game is scheduled to be KC at Tampa Bay....

[caneman]

Back late ‘60’s (early 70’s?) growing up here in Redington Beach, there was a hurricane that went north in the Gulf not too far offshore (100 miles— not sure, I was a young teen). The cain stalled slightly pushing water into the west coast beaches. My dad was on the hurricane watch party and allowed me to stay. The next day, I cruised up and down Gulf Blvd in my family’s 15’ boat from St. Pete Beach to Clearwater Beach - there was more than 3’ of water. Our point home on the intracoastal that was kind of high still had 2’ of water in the Florida room. I have to imagine Ian will produce similar, if not deeper, totals.

Hurricane Elena

[skillz305]

Huh, so the next Sunday NIght Football game is scheduled to be KC at Tampa Bay....

We’ve seen games be postponed for Hurricanes before. We shall see how everything turns out.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5821/ZgXZum.gif

Cayman’s going to be real close…

[HurricaneBelle]

Pretty much have talked myself into leaving the Clearwater area - this time around it's just me I'm responsible for and I have so many large trees near the house that I'm not sure I want to play roulette with one (or more) of them possibly falling on me, especially with the potential for 12-15" of rain or more to soften up the ground combined with a possible 48-hour duration of at least tropical storm-force winds. And even if I get through that relatively unscathed I'm looking at days if not weeks without power or internet and perhaps even cell service. And it's not like I can do anything about it if I stay. Plus it's also a good excuse to visit my son in Tallahassee (even if one of those goofy GFS runs verified it'd be a tropical storm up there).

It's gonna stink to have to worry about the house while I'm gone but I know at least my car will be safe and so will I. Gonna head up 19 (wouldn't want to go anywhere near I-75) either later tomorrow or Tuesday morning after getting some stuff taken care of before I leave.

[Fancy1001]

Just a quick question, what does everyone think the chance is for Ian to be hurricane Phoenix?

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Huh, so the next Sunday NIght Football game is scheduled to be KC at Tampa Bay....

It’s bound to be either postponed or moved to KC

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pretty much have talked myself into leaving the Clearwater area - this time around it's just me I'm responsible for and I have so many large trees near the house that I'm not sure I want to play roulette with one (or more) of them possibly falling on me, especially with the potential for 12-15" of rain or more to soften up the ground combined with a possible 48-hour duration of at least tropical storm-force winds. And even if I get through that relatively unscathed I'm looking at days if not weeks without power or internet and perhaps even cell service. And it's not like I can do anything about it if I stay. Plus it's also a good excuse to visit my son in Tallahassee (even if one of those goofy GFS runs verified it'd be a tropical storm up there).

It's gonna stink to have to worry about the house while I'm gone but I know at least my car will be safe and so will I. Gonna head up 19 (wouldn't want to go anywhere near I-75) either later tomorrow or Tuesday morning after getting some stuff taken care of before I leave.

Things can be replaced, you can't. I wish more people realized that little bit of wisdom.

[skyline385]

[redingtonbeach]

Back late ‘60’s (early 70’s?) growing up here in Redington Beach, there was a hurricane that went north in the Gulf not too far offshore (100 miles— not sure, I was a young teen). The cain stalled slightly pushing water into the west coast beaches. My dad was on the hurricane watch party and allowed me to stay. The next day, I cruised up and down Gulf Blvd in my family’s 15’ boat from St. Pete Beach to Clearwater Beach - there was more than 3’ of water. Our point home on the intracoastal that was kind of high still had 2’ of water in the Florida room. I have to imagine Ian will produce similar, if not deeper, totals.

Hurricane Elena

No, I believe it was Camile but not sure. Other locals will know.

[syfr]

It's gonna stink to have to worry about the house while I'm gone but I know at least my car will be safe and so will I.

I doubt you'd worry less if you were there thru the storm.

I think you're wise to find a safe place to ride it out.

[drewschmaltz]

Just a quick question, what does everyone think the chance is for Ian to be hurricane Phoenix?

I was just rewatching this. I'm not qualified to answer the question, but I will anyway. I think the chances are high enough that it makes me uncomfortable. With the models coming into agreement. With NHC continuing to be bullish on intensity forecasts. With Ian's the developments over the past couple of hours. It's starting to feel like the chances are currently "more likely than not".

I live in Orlando and have for my whole life. We've had ones that look like "the one" and things change (as they always do). The path concerns me greatly. And the angle of attack, with a turn to the north, could be a real disaster for long stretches of our beautiful West coast.

Like I said - things change and they always do. But, at this time, there is certainly a possibility for a near worst case scenario.

[Fancy1001]

I think everyone’s biggest fear, would be if ian went through a phase of explosive intensification after getting past Cuba and made a beeline just north of Tampa. Considering how short of a time it would be from now till then, I’m not sure how any substantial evacuations could be done without causing mass panic.

[MetsIslesNoles]

Pretty much have talked myself into leaving the Clearwater area - this time around it's just me I'm responsible for and I have so many large trees near the house that I'm not sure I want to play roulette with one (or more) of them possibly falling on me, especially with the potential for 12-15" of rain or more to soften up the ground combined with a possible 48-hour duration of at least tropical storm-force winds. And even if I get through that relatively unscathed I'm looking at days if not weeks without power or internet and perhaps even cell service. And it's not like I can do anything about it if I stay. Plus it's also a good excuse to visit my son in Tallahassee (even if one of those goofy GFS runs verified it'd be a tropical storm up there).

It's gonna stink to have to worry about the house while I'm gone but I know at least my car will be safe and so will I. Gonna head up 19 (wouldn't want to go anywhere near I-75) either later tomorrow or Tuesday morning after getting some stuff taken care of before I leave.

Tropical Storm winds + Tallahassee = Mass power outages for a few days. Hermine never had a hurricane force wind recorded here and it was a mess for weeks. Hopefully it’s a bit better now since it seems like the City and County have trimmed some areas back from lines.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for your answers.

[eastcoastFL]

That band out over Cuba will probably be hitting key west tomorrow.

[HurricaneBelle]

Tropical Storm winds + Tallahassee = Mass power outages for a few days. Hermine never had a hurricane force wind recorded here and it was a mess for weeks. Hopefully it’s a bit better now since it seems like the City and County have trimmed some areas back from lines.

Oh yeah I know how treed Tallahassee is, but I'll have time to keep going farther west if it looks like it'll make it up that way in any kind of dangerous form. Who knows? Maybe I'll drive far enough to actually experience some cooler weather.