ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2001 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:07 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2002 Postby StPeteMike » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:10 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/kgE45IZ

Cold tops getting ready to wrap itself around, don’t see the possibility of any dry air sneaking in. Bed soon, likely will wake up to a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2003 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:10 pm

StPeteMike wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:East with the NHC still puts this right up the coast from roughly Tarpon to Cedar Key. I can’t see them being too influenced by the ICON which seems to have flung too far east, though a slim possibility.


NHC doesnt use the ICON afaik, its nowhere on their models page

Forgot they ignore it, thanks!

Still don’t think NHC will go as far east and south as ICON.


0z GFS is Panhandle bound…so that should pull the TVCN back west a touch unless the EURO and UKMET come in further south.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2004 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:10 pm

Would like to stay up and watch the hurricane hunters make it back into Ian. Unfortunately, I go under the knife (minor procedure) tomorrow and need to get some sleep. It should be interesting to see what I wake up to in the mornig.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2005 Postby Chemmers » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:17 pm

tropicwatch wrote:Would like to stay up and watch the hurricane hunters make it back into Ian. Unfortunately, I go under the knife (minor procedure) tomorrow and need to get some sleep. It should be interesting to see what I wake up to in the mornig.


Hope everything goes OK, yes definitely think will see cat 1 or 2 hurricane in the morning unfortunately
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2006 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:22 pm

Not trying to downcast, but over the past few frames, the large band to its north has become really dominant, and seems to be preventing the eyewall from closing off.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2007 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:30 pm

It's a double edged sword. If it slows, the winds could weaken but the wind field expands and the flooding rains and surge are horrendous. If it moves fast, it could bring major hurricane winds into the peninsula. 
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2008 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:52 pm

One thing seems to be constant, whether or not it's the EURO or the GFS that wins out, the rain and flooding potential is horrible with IAN.....It's such a crawler as it gets close to the coast.
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2009 Postby wx98 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:55 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:One thing seems to be constant, whether or not it's the EURO or the GFS that wins out, the rain and flooding potential is horrible with IVAN.....It's such a crawler as it gets close to the coast.

IAN, although this does happen to occupy Ivan’s former spot on the list.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2010 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:00 am

How long until recon makes it into the storm, It looks like it’s approaching the edge.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2011 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:05 am

Fancy1001 wrote:How long until recon makes it into the storm, It looks like it’s approaching the edge.

It's starting the first pass right now
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2012 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:08 am

Teban54 wrote:Not trying to downcast, but over the past few frames, the large band to its north has become really dominant, and seems to be preventing the eyewall from closing off.

From what I’ve seen in the past, banding like that isn’t usually an issue. There was some speculation that a similar band would slow down Fiona and it continued to strengthen to cat4 while the band was in place. I’ve seen it more as an issue when it’s a massive blob far removed to the southeast, consistently producing deeper convection than the core. While this band is deeper at the moment, that generally hasn’t been the case overall
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ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2013 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:27 am

Ian's Dvorak is really getting it together...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2014 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:33 am

Extrap 988, so not much different from the last mission. Interesting that the FL winds on the N/NW side are pretty weak this pass
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2015 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:41 am

Rotating towers firing around the CoC right now.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2016 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:47 am

Looks like another upper air mission just took off
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2017 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:49 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Not trying to downcast, but over the past few frames, the large band to its north has become really dominant, and seems to be preventing the eyewall from closing off.

From what I’ve seen in the past, banding like that isn’t usually an issue. There was some speculation that a similar band would slow down Fiona and it continued to strengthen to cat4 while the band was in place. I’ve seen it more as an issue when it’s a massive blob far removed to the southeast, consistently producing deeper convection than the core. While this band is deeper at the moment, that generally hasn’t been the case overall


And even then, we’ve had storms like Matthew, which produced its deepest convection in a huge blob well to the east of the core even as winds in the eyewall were reaching C5 status
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2018 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2019 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:52 am

ElectricStorm wrote:Extrap 988, so not much different from the last mission. Interesting that the FL winds on the N/NW side are pretty weak this pass

Tentatively, I’m not so sure. It looks like they just missed the center, judging by the sfmr not dropping below 10kt and immediately shooting back up. I’m tempted to think it’s similar to that second pass they did on the last flight where it looked like the pressure rose. But if the next pass shows a similar pressure then I concede.

Edit: another reason the pressure may be valid is that winds in the nw quad are very unimpressive. The asymmetry of the wind field suggests Ian still has some kinks to work out
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2020 Postby Beef Stew » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:53 am

Winds are up to 70mph sustained and pressures down to 988mbar per the 02:00 update.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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