ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[CrazyC83]

Of the Invests, I'd say this one is the least likely to develop. Although getting to Julia now would put us back close to average...

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2022092300, , BEST, 0, 104N, 344W, 20, 1010, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal992022.dat

[Teban54]

3. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system
remains possible over the next several days while it drifts
northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[weeniepatrol]

Uhh?

[Teban54]

99L realized it's late to the race and wants to play catch up.

Convection still a bit disorganized, but it's probably getting there. Model support also increasing.

[CrazyC83]

Do us a favor 99L. Quickly get organized and become a tropical storm to steal the "I" name.

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Everyone is focusing on Ian rightfully, but the NHC increased the odds of this invest developing.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Despite the proximity of nearby dry air,
upper-level winds appear to be generally conducive and could
support some gradual development through the middle to latter
portion of this week as the system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Teban54]

Hoping this becomes Julia so that my vote of 7 or more storms for September can verify. Will also bump up the seasonal NS numbers a bit.

99L, you can do it!

[HurricaneEnzo]

99L looking pretty decent all of a sudden. Let's see if it can maintain

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it has a well defined LLC with convection over it! I'd say the nhc will probably go 70% at 2am.

[galaxy401]

Surprised the NHC kept it at 20/30. This looks much better the last several hours.

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing persistent but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could
form during the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable toward the end of the week. The system is expected to
meander during the next day or two and then move slowly
north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable
toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander
during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable
toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander
during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

We may have Julia now.

[Category5Kaiju]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable
toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander
during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

We may have Julia now.

We went from “wow, the Atlantic is so hostile now; Earl could be the last storm of the season”


To this.

[AnnularCane]

I am rooting for this so my "seven or more storms in September" will be correct (still technically correct even though I was thinking eight ). Also because it might nip the "dead season" talk in the bud even further even though Ian might conceivably take care of that on his own.

[Sciencerocks]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable
toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander
during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

We may have Julia now.

We went from “wow, the Atlantic is so hostile now; Earl could be the last storm of the season”


To this.

This is what typically happens once the cap is broken! What ever that was holding this season back finally became favorable....

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
today associated with an area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite the proximity
of nearby dry air, upper-level winds appear generally conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days as the system meanders over the
central tropical Atlantic. By the end of this week, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for development as the
system begins to move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.