ATL: IAN - Models

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skyline385
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2641 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:44 am

Stormgodess wrote:Question: With a strong storm, that weakens.. let's say Ian gets to Cat 4 but weakens to Cat 2 before landfall. What about storm surge? Does the surge drop along with the weakening storm, or can it still hold on to pushing higher waters it gathered when much stronger?

Does that question make sense? :double:

Water in the ocean has a lot of inertia compared to air so while the winds would drop off quickly it would be much longer for the storm surge to weaken.


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2642 Postby NFLnut » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:04 am

Can anyone explain why the 00Z GFS moved WEST in this run from 18Z. Did they forgot dropsonde again or something? Look at 72hr specifically.

https://imgur.com/a/vx2q7AG
Last edited by NFLnut on Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:13 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2643 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:10 am

06z TVCN still slightly to the right of the NHC track.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2644 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:19 am

NDG wrote:06z TVCN still slightly to the right of the NHC track.

https://i.imgur.com/BLClAUy.gif


I think the NHC is getting fairly close to the eventual track, perhaps another shift east and they will be right on the money.. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the shear push Ian into the coast a little south of Tampa however.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2645 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:29 am

A closer look at the 06z TVCN, it actually moved about 10 miles west, previous was over Clearwater & Crystal River.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2646 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:43 am

00Z EPS - 2 views of same run

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2647 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:46 am

00Z GFS Ens - 2 views of same run. Wayyyy offshore Tampa.

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Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2648 Postby N2FSU » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:46 am

0z Euro with the stall and northward crawl
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2649 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:26 am

6Z ICON has landfall around Sarasota and continuing NE across the state exiting around St.Augustine
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2650 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:46 am

6z GFS at 36 hours is a decent amount northeast of the 0z
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2651 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:49 am

Bocadude85 wrote:6Z ICON has landfall around Sarasota and continuing NE across the state exiting around St.Augustine


Was that about the same as last run?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2652 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:50 am

Image
06z GFS 48 hr Trending E again
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2653 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:53 am

The GFS has started turning Northeast Towards Tampa at 66 hours, let’s see if that continues or if it starts to head north again. Either way it’s a decent amount east of the previous run
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2654 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:55 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2655 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:55 am

GFS Trending E

06Z
Image

00Z
Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2656 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:55 am

It’s getting closer and closer but the GFS just doesn’t want it to make that turn. Can someone point out what’s preventing it from pushing inward
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2657 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:06 am

Just stalls right off the coast of T.B.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2658 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:07 am

This is the farthest east the GFS has been, assuming the other 6z models stay roughly the same this eastward shift should be enough to drag the TVCN southeast towards Tampa
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2659 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:11 am

Fancy1001 wrote:It’s getting closer and closer but the GFS just doesn’t want it to make that turn. Can someone point out what’s preventing it from pushing inward


They wanted to make sure the 50 knot winds made it to the coast in time for the media warnings.
NHC put Tampa under a hurricane watch.
Tampa newspaper still using the term "uncertain".
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2660 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:16 am

Finally Moves

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