ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

Tentatively, I’m not so sure. It looks like they just missed the center, judging by the sfmr not dropping below 10kt and immediately shooting back up. I’m tempted to think it’s similar to that second pass they did on the last flight where it looked like the pressure rose. But if the next pass shows a similar pressure then I concede.

Edit: another reason the pressure may be valid is that winds in the nw quad are very unimpressive. The asymmetry of the wind field suggests Ian still has some kinks to work out

Looks like the low NW quad may be because the eyewall is open there.

The first VDM also shows a C36 eye, much larger than the 15 nm eye from the last mission.

What's a C36 eye?

Its the Size of Eye. Its 36 (now 26 after another pass) nautical miles wide.

[WmE]

Tentatively, I’m not so sure. It looks like they just missed the center, judging by the sfmr not dropping below 10kt and immediately shooting back up. I’m tempted to think it’s similar to that second pass they did on the last flight where it looked like the pressure rose. But if the next pass shows a similar pressure then I concede.

Edit: another reason the pressure may be valid is that winds in the nw quad are very unimpressive. The asymmetry of the wind field suggests Ian still has some kinks to work out

Looks like the low NW quad may be because the eyewall is open there.

The first VDM also shows a C36 eye, much larger than the 15 nm eye from the last mission.

What's a C36 eye?

Circular eye. Diameter 36 nautical miles.

[CryHavoc]

I don’t understand how they have TS watch up for south FL but no watches or warnings up for central FL. Shouldn’t there be at least a TS if not H watch for the whole FL West coast by now?

Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.

Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Still probably a bit more than 48hrs out - and waiting until morning to give it more of a news push, I'm guessing? It's not due to start hitting until mid-day Wednesday for the outer bands.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane watch for Tampa, Clearwater, FT Myers.

[Tinman53]

Watch issued for parts of west coast of Florida shift slightly east

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane Ian starting to look really good. Gonna be interesting when we get visible.

[eastcoastFL]

Updated rain forecast from NHC through Thursday

[kevin]

Another blowup of convection near the eye. I don't know about intensity, but in terms of looks I think Ian may resemble Delta when we get VIS.

[johngaltfla]

Updated rain forecast from NHC through Thursday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0922WPCQPF+gif/042342WPCQPF_sm.gif

That's an underestimate if what our local mets said is correct about slowing. I could easily see 10"+ all over the Sarasota through Tampa areas if he's right about it slowing down off of our coast.

I hope everyone has a plan because it's going to be a wild week. Good luck to all of my fellow Floridians.

[eastcoastFL]

Updated rain forecast from NHC through Thursday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0922WPCQPF+gif/042342WPCQPF_sm.gif

That's an underestimate if what our local mets said is correct about slowing. I could easily see 10"+ all over the Sarasota through Tampa areas if he's right about it slowing down off of our coast.

I hope everyone has a plan because it's going to be a wild week. Good luck to all of my fellow Floridians.

That’s just through 8am Thursday. It’s a 3 day map. There will be much more rain beyond that as 8am Thursday it’s just offshore Tampa.

[eastcoastFL]

Eye still appears to be open on Cayman radar but the storms are sure building in nicely to its north and west

[skillz305]

Any changes to implications on east coast central Florida at this time from last night? Gotta go to work!

[ObsessedMiami]

Given the current track or slightly right is it likely the east coast of SFL will eventually see TS watches as the system approaches?

[Nimbus]

Any changes to implications on east coast central Florida at this time from last night? Gotta go to work!

06z GFS gives us a benchmark of -83W as it crosses the 20N latitude probably last recon mission tonight will tell..
Could easily swing north by then and its going to be a monster with surge and rain flooding of rivers on the west coast. Whether the core 100+ MPH winds make it to Tampa is still a question.
I don't think they are going to fly anything out of the space coast this week.

[Cargill]

Hi - I'm an Aussie weather freak who's been a member on here for a bit more than ten years ... what I've learnt from logging on or lurking has been incredible. Australia is hugely hurricane (cyclone) prone, but because of our geography, we don't have that many people living in hurricane zones. Almost all our cyclone activity is above 20° South.

And we also seem these days to have far fewer storms per year.

I only posted to say that my name is IAN - not that common any more, in fact almost extinct. I really hope that this storm named after me fizzles into a nothing-burger before it reaches Tampa ... that would be my fondest wish.

We visited Key West (plus Miami Beach and Everglades NP) not long after Irma and Maria in October 2017. The damage visible out along the keys was extraordinary.

[aspen]

It’s remarkable how quickly Ian turned itself around. 24 hours ago, it was nothing more than a cluster of tiny spotty convection.

[kevin]

First recon pass, pressure down to 978.7 mb.

[kevin]

Recon fixes from the last few flights for reference. Over the last 5 hours Ian has deepened at an average rate of almost 2 mb/hr. Even if Ian just stays on its current intensification rate and doesn't RI even faster this could be enough to get it down to 940 mb before its Cuba landfall.

Sep 26
10:11z = 978.7 mb
07:18z = 983.6 mb
05:22z = 987.9 mb
00:53z = 988.5 mb

Sep 25
22:32z = 989.0 mb
10:45z = 999.4 mb

[aspen]

Strange how far the max winds are from the center. In the NW quadrant, the max winds are at the very edge of the CDO. Maybe they’ll contract as Ian intensifies and the CDO organizes.

[Teban54]