ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The QPC 7Day is forecasting some heavy rain. I'm currently looking at a potential 15 inches+ right now up here near Jacksonville.
NWS JAX is forecasting 6-12 inches as well.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
905 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
..................................
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Models are in general agreement with rainfall totals of 6-12
inches through the end of the week with Ian, with highest amounts
across coastal NE FL where strong low level convergent bands will
form, and another maximum expected closer to the eventual track of
Ian after it comes onshore and tracks through the Suwannee Valley
and into inland SE GA. Localized higher amounts can be expected
and other than the usual flash flooding threat on Wed/Thu/Fri,
expect significant river rises and main focus will be on most NE
FL basins, since they remain higher from heavy rainfall over the
past 2 months, with the Santa Fe still in Action/Elevated stages
at the moment, although the expected rainfall amounts will likely
bring potential for flooding on Black Creek, St Mary`s and
Suwannee Basins as well. A combination of trapped high tides and
fresh water flooding is also expected on the St Johns River and in
addition to likely Flood Watches from Wed through Fri, the St
Johns River Basin will likely need Coastal Flood Watches as well
NWS JAX is forecasting 6-12 inches as well.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
905 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
..................................
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Models are in general agreement with rainfall totals of 6-12
inches through the end of the week with Ian, with highest amounts
across coastal NE FL where strong low level convergent bands will
form, and another maximum expected closer to the eventual track of
Ian after it comes onshore and tracks through the Suwannee Valley
and into inland SE GA. Localized higher amounts can be expected
and other than the usual flash flooding threat on Wed/Thu/Fri,
expect significant river rises and main focus will be on most NE
FL basins, since they remain higher from heavy rainfall over the
past 2 months, with the Santa Fe still in Action/Elevated stages
at the moment, although the expected rainfall amounts will likely
bring potential for flooding on Black Creek, St Mary`s and
Suwannee Basins as well. A combination of trapped high tides and
fresh water flooding is also expected on the St Johns River and in
addition to likely Flood Watches from Wed through Fri, the St
Johns River Basin will likely need Coastal Flood Watches as well
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Icon running a little stronger and a little southwest.
Last edited by Fancy1001 on Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
chris_fit wrote:12Z Models have begun. ICON coming in... slightly slower.
https://i.imgur.com/3ltShA9.png
Where are you getting your models from, tropical tidbits is a bit slow on the update.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
cane5 wrote:skillz305 wrote:Is it me or are more of the models showing a crossing central Florida track? Per 12z model track guidance
Sorry for the ignorance is 12z the German model ?
12Z is a time at which model runs are initialized...equivalent to 0700 CDT. The German model is the ICON.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
And that's what the 12Z ICON wrote.... Slight left shift from previous runs, but stronger, still hits Tampa.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
chris_fit wrote:And that's what the 12Z ICON wrote.... Slight left shift from previous runs, but stronger, still hits Tampa.
https://i.imgur.com/XOVQvtT.png
Pretty sure that’s worst case scenario right there. Good thing it’s only one run of one model, and the icon at that. Hopefully other models don’t match it, and still time for things to shift a bit
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
A high-end cat 3 or cat 4 into Tampa with the perfect angle for a historic storm surge. Let's hope it's just the ICON and that the other models are more offshore.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
SFLcane wrote:Was the 06z UKMET posted?
No, what does it have?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:SFLcane wrote:Was the 06z UKMET posted?
No, what does it have?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
skyline385 wrote:skillz305 wrote:LarryWx wrote:The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.
Oh wow. Any visuals to that run?
Here is UKMET 12Z vs 12Z landfall vs18Z since the 06/18Z runs only go up to 60 hours
https://i.imgur.com/W5Mktai.jpg
That’s not Tampa.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
History suggests storms forecast to hit Tampa end up on the northern gulf coast... I don't like the number of models forcasting a slow down / stall off the Florida west coast. Elana did that...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
SFLcane wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:SFLcane wrote:Was the 06z UKMET posted?
No, what does it have?
https://i.postimg.cc/Lsmfvn8F/ukmet.png
That is the 00z. I don't think the 06z goes out that far for the UKMET.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Weak initialisation by 12Z GFS, 989mb at first timestep.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Despite the weak initialization GFS is stronger at +18 hrs than the 06z run (971 vs 975 mb). Track so far almost identical.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
MrJames wrote:
That is the 00z. I don't think the 06z goes out that far for the UKMET.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
GFS+24 968 mb and perhaps a hair (about 0.2 degrees) further east than 06z.
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