ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like a false eye, to me. Pressure would be a lot lower and recon would be finding a lot stronger winds if a tiny eye was forming.

It is just the beginning of it. pressure will fall.

Radar confirms a tiny eye. it could of course collapse if an outer eyewall starts to develop as well.. but right now there is one continuous spiral band into the tiny eye.

https://i.ibb.co/48Rg7Gz/eye2.png

Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.

Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

[psyclone]

Ugh, the evacuation page for the greater Tampa Area is down.

Not great timing to have a server outage.

Every single media outlet in Tampa bay is discussing evac procedures. People will have plenty of options for this info.

[Buck]

The outflow on Ian is just incredible. He's really breathing.

[FLpanhandle91]

I have the center on the x.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yesterday, the trend on models felt Easterly. Today it is a blend... there is a significant shift West from Euro and CMC, being offset by the GFS and it's GFS based hurricane models which shifted E closer to Tampa. It's a coin flip, but today if there is a trend in the models, to me it feels like it is back to the West a bit.

[wxman57]

It is just the beginning of it. pressure will fall.

Radar confirms a tiny eye. it could of course collapse if an outer eyewall starts to develop as well.. but right now there is one continuous spiral band into the tiny eye.

https://i.ibb.co/48Rg7Gz/eye2.png

Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.

Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

That's not how it works. In an ERC, the outer eyewall replaces a smaller inner eyewall, as the outer eyewall cuts off inflow toward the center. Max winds drop off during an ERC, perhaps as much as two categories. Cat 1 hurricanes don't undergo ERC. No sign of a pinhole eye by recon. They would acknowledge it if it was there.

[aspen]

It is just the beginning of it. pressure will fall.

Radar confirms a tiny eye. it could of course collapse if an outer eyewall starts to develop as well.. but right now there is one continuous spiral band into the tiny eye.

https://i.ibb.co/48Rg7Gz/eye2.png

Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.

Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

I’m skeptical Ian goes pinhole. Either it’ll be stuck with this double eye structure like what the HAFS predicted, or the inner eyewall should be choked by the outer one. This is very strange; I don’t recall ever seeing a storm developing an inner eyewall while already having an established outer eyewall.

Can you post a link to the radar you’re using?

[Iceresistance]

Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.

Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

I’m skeptical Ian goes pinhole. Either it’ll be stuck with this double eye structure like what the HAFS predicted, or the inner eyewall should be choked by the outer one. This is very strange; I don’t recall ever seeing a storm developing an inner eyewall while already having an established outer eyewall.

Can you post a link to the radar you’re using?

I'm not DestinHurricane, but I have the link here: https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[wx98]

Ian clearly has some internal problems to resolve. In the meantime, I think all this back and forth regarding pinholes and RI needs to cool down.

[Sciencerocks]

[wx98]

Looks like it is moving far enough west at this juncture to easily miss the Isle of Youth.

[Blown Away]

Close brush for Isla of Youth...

[aspen]

Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

I’m skeptical Ian goes pinhole. Either it’ll be stuck with this double eye structure like what the HAFS predicted, or the inner eyewall should be choked by the outer one. This is very strange; I don’t recall ever seeing a storm developing an inner eyewall while already having an established outer eyewall.

Can you post a link to the radar you’re using?

I'm not DestinHurricane, but I have the link here: https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

Thanks. Looks like the inner eyewall is breaking apart and merging into the now-complete outer eyewall. That should trigger some more hot towers and a stronger deepening phase in the time leading up to the next recon plane.

[GCANE]

IMHO, doesn't look like an outer eyewall.
In fact a high rain-rate tower is firing now at the CoC.

[GCANE]

Pretty fast rotation with that tower

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty fast rotation with that tower

Good to have you back GCANE.

[Iceresistance]

IMHO, doesn't look like an outer eyewall.
In fact a high rain-rate tower is firing now at the CoC.

You're back!

[DestinHurricane]

Pretty fast rotation with that tower

Yep i'm seeing that, that eye looking pretty well defined. On the radar link click on 150 miles

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/nDiDdBF696c[/youtube]

[wxman57]

You folks need to zoom out and look at the big picture. Too much of a focus on the minutia of the track or cloud elements, or of tiny, natural, wobbles.