ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Hey i’m 50 miles north of tampa near coast with mandatory evac effective 9am tomorrow. does that mean i have to leave by 9 or can i wait longer as long as it’s not too late. like afternoon sometime. i’m not sure how the law applies

You won't see much weather there until during the day on Thursday. Squalls could arrive Wednesday night. You can leave whenever you want.

Thank you for taking time out of ur super busy schedule to answer my question wxman. I truly appreciate it.

[Teban54]

Category 2 now. Special advisory was just posted.

Isn't that just the regular advisory?

Edit: The header was just corrected.

[ElectricStorm]

The discussion is listed as a special discussion for some reason. This is the regular advisory time though...

[TallyTracker]

Why did NHC call it a “Special Advisory” at the 5 PM time? Did someone push the wrong button?

[Aric Dunn]

New tower firing right around the tiny core.. radar is starting to look like an ever-tightening eyewall.

[aspen]

Category 2 now. Special advisory was just posted.

Isn't that just the regular advisory?

Yes it’s a regular advisory.

I disagree with upgrading this to a Category 2. I even felt like 75 kt at the 2pm intermediate advisory might be a little much. FL/SFMR only really supported 70 kt, the pressure was steady until dipping a bit at the very end of the last morning mission, and Ian has undergone so much structural chaos that I doubt it has strengthened much. But we’ll find out soon enough when the next two planes arrive.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Here comes another fast moving rain shower/line. Probably a feeder band. West fort lauderdale near davie and NSU.

[TallyTracker]

Category 2 now. Special advisory was just posted.

Isn't that just the regular advisory?

Yes it’s a regular advisory.

I disagree with upgrading this to a Category 2. I even felt like 75 kt at the 2pm intermediate advisory might be a little much. FL/SFMR only really supported 70 kt, the pressure was steady until dipping a bit at the very end of the last morning mission, and Ian has undergone so much structural chaos that I doubt it has strengthened much. But we’ll find out soon enough when the next two planes arrive.

I agree. It feels a tad risky going with 85 kts to me since it could only be 70 kts.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1574501398699556884

[Zonacane]

Downcasting this hurricane is a really bad idea.

[kevin]

Hurricane warning for Tampa Bay:

[Category5Kaiju]

Downcasting this hurricane is a really bad idea.

I mean I specifically remember people doing that with Ida last year when I tracked that storm

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1574501398699556884?s=20&t=8fWnML6Qbw9BNucO9--4Vw

I still think that outer ring is going to win out

[Teban54]

Downcasting this hurricane is a really bad idea.

I mean I specifically remember people doing that with Ida last year when I tracked that storm

I specifically remember people doing this just 24 hours ago.

[Blown Away]

Maybe just W of due N?? Maybe just a wobble, but Ian is closing in on the Island of Youth.

[zal0phus]

Downcasting this hurricane is a really bad idea.

Agreed, it can't hurt to be just slightly alarmist here. If the worst forecasts verify, the scenes coming out of Tampa may be nightmarish. Better that people act in an overabundance of caution

[ObsessedMiami]

Hurricane warning for Tampa Bay:

https://i.imgur.com/RcSoaUW.png

Just for completeness let’s get a TS watch from Jupiter inlet to Ocean Reef guys. I think it’s the only part of Florida that doesn’t have one

[hipshot]

radar and sat def show WNW to NW short term motion while it has been deepening( normal cyclonic loops). NW/NNW show resume though. looks like it will pass west of the forecast point and probably just go over the very tip of Cuba. Pretty flat and narrow. wont cause much of any issues for it.

If it does pass over the very western tip of Cuba or through the straits, it seems like it is going to take longer to make the turn to the northeast and
on in to mid-Florida. There seems like a possibility that IAN could just truck on north to the mid-gulf coast or maybe somewhat east of there. Any
chance of that happening? I'm just a lurker thinking out loud.

Yes that is the secondary path that Ian may take. Seems like the models are starting to agree more on a path toward Tampa, but many of the models ensembles still take Ian on a more direct route toward the FL Panhandle.

I just don't think that the trough over the east coast will drop down far enough to catch IAN if IAN takes a more slightly northern track due to the
time it will take, as slow as it is going, to get caught up in it to be pulled that far east. I think there is supposed to be a strong ridge of Texas now
or in the next day or so and won't that have some affect on IAN's path as well.

[Jelmergraaff]

I am actually wondering why the NHC shows either so little strengthening in the GOM or such a strong system when it moves away from Cuba into the Gulf. NHC has it at 115kt/130mph at +24h and 120kt/140mph at +36h. However, if you look at some models like HMON and HWRF, they're indicating an increase in sustained winds over the SE Gulf of respectively and 37kt/41mph and 20kt/23mph. On the other hand, the NHC forecast lies well above the model output of those models around Cuba.

Is there a chance that the NHC is underestimating the intensification in the SE Gulf? Or do they just think it'll peak earlier? I don't exactly know when shear starts to pick up, but until then RI seems still possible to me.

[CryHavoc]

Category 2 now. Special advisory was just posted.

Isn't that just the regular advisory?

Yes it’s a regular advisory.

I disagree with upgrading this to a Category 2. I even felt like 75 kt at the 2pm intermediate advisory might be a little much. FL/SFMR only really supported 70 kt, the pressure was steady until dipping a bit at the very end of the last morning mission, and Ian has undergone so much structural chaos that I doubt it has strengthened much. But we’ll find out soon enough when the next two planes arrive.

You've been dogging this system the entire time. Radar presentation has improved drastically. Outflow is excellent. This storm is simply too well-constructed to be a cat 1. I strongly disagree with the idea that a reorganizing storm must necessarily stay weak in a region as prime for RI/EI as these waters are. A cat 1 to a cat 2 is not a huge jump with conditions like this. If anything the structure is starting to resemble a *strong* cat 2 with the latest satellite imagery.