ATL: IAN - Models

[blp]

Ukmet still coming in furthest South holding that line.

[DestinHurricane]

Icon into Sarasota area

[cane5]

FYI feeder band just came through this thing ain’t playin!!

[Jevo]

ICON got a bit Sassy... Has Ian sitting on Disney World in 50 hours

[pgoss11]

At 90 hrs the 18z ICON has Ian back out in the Atlantic and strengthening.

[skyline385]

ICON shifts east, pretty close to UKMET




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[LarryWx]

ICON shifts east, pretty close to UKMET

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220926/59f3a02c57147024cbf546d5bf0f6afa.jpg


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18Z ICON is most SE ICON track since the similar 18Z run of 48 hours ago.

[JtSmarts]

At 90 hrs the 18z ICON has Ian back out in the Atlantic and strengthening.

[TallyTracker]

ICON got a bit Sassy... Has Ian sitting on Disney World in 50 hours https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022092618/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

Probably wants to ride Rise of the Resistance…it may sit there a while though…long lines…lol

[ConvergenceZone]

At 90 hrs the 18z ICON has Ian back out in the Atlantic and strengthening.

https://imgur.com/rcoENL2

I don't think there is anyway the ICON verifies. All the way on the central east coast by Friday? I just don't see that happening.....Although it would be good news due to the lightning speed that it would be moving (although bad for the east coast)

[tolakram]

18Z ICON

[Jelmergraaff]

Just before going to sleep, I'm wondering why there's such a big difference between the models and the NHC forecast in terms of intensity. I've also said it in the discussion topic, but the NHC shows a maximum of 140 mph in the SE Gulf, after passing Cuba with sustained winds of about 120 (before) to 130 mph (after landfall).

However, the hurricane-models show something very different. For example, HWRF shows it leaving Cuba with sustained winds of 116 mph once fully over water and has it later increasing to 139 mph (+ 23 mph against +15 mph according to the NHC). HMON an even more extreme difference, with it intensifying from 106 mph to 150 mph (+44 mph).

Is the NHC maybe underestimating RI-potential in the SE Gulf or is it rather because they show such an intens system entering the Gulf. Any ideas?

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS 12 a little SE of 12Z at 18

[tolakram]

Just before going to sleep, I'm wondering why there's such a big difference between the models and the NHC forecast in terms of intensity. I've also said it in the discussion topic, but the NHC shows a maximum of 140 mph in the SE Gulf, after passing Cuba with sustained winds of about 120 (before) to 130 mph (after landfall).

However, the hurricane-models show something very different. For example, HWRF shows it leaving Cuba with sustained winds of 116 mph once fully over water and has it later increasing to 139 mph (+ 23 mph against +15 mph according to the NHC). HMON an even more extreme difference, with it intensifying from 106 mph to 150 mph (+44 mph).

Is the NHC maybe underestimating RI-potential in the SE Gulf or is it rather because they show such an intens system entering the Gulf. Any ideas?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2022092612/hmon_mslp_wind_09L_10.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2022092612/hmon_mslp_wind_09L_18.png

The NHC consistently outperforms individual model forecasts. They use the Florida State super ensembles and years of forecasting knowledge. Intensity forecast skill is still not good, but it's all over the place as far as errors. These models are interesting, but rarely reality. You just won't beat their forecasts with any individual model.

NHC forecast verification 2021: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2021.pdf

Track



Intensity

[tolakram]

[skillz305]

If 18z GFS crosses Ian thru central Florda towards the east, i'll be convinced its time to prepare.

[skillz305]

[p1nheadlarry]

Just before going to sleep, I'm wondering why there's such a big difference between the models and the NHC forecast in terms of intensity. I've also said it in the discussion topic, but the NHC shows a maximum of 140 mph in the SE Gulf, after passing Cuba with sustained winds of about 120 (before) to 130 mph (after landfall).

However, the hurricane-models show something very different. For example, HWRF shows it leaving Cuba with sustained winds of 116 mph once fully over water and has it later increasing to 139 mph (+ 23 mph against +15 mph according to the NHC). HMON an even more extreme difference, with it intensifying from 106 mph to 150 mph (+44 mph).

Is the NHC maybe underestimating RI-potential in the SE Gulf or is it rather because they show such an intens system entering the Gulf. Any ideas?

The NHC consistently outperforms individual model forecasts. They use the Florida super ensembles and years of forecasting knowledge. Intensity forecast skill is still not good, but it's all over the place as far as errors. These models are interesting, but rarely reality. You just won't beat their forecasts with any individual model.

Correction: Florida *State* super ensembles. Can't let anyone assume anyone in Gainesville had anything to do with it

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/G1BF3ES.png

Still a bit SE of 12Z