ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Eye drop supports 966 mb and the 87 kt FL winds + 80 kt SFMR is at least good enough for 80 kt. Probably also supports 85 kt due to undersampling.

[skillz305]

Is that Ian starting a wobble due North? we shall find out

[InfernoFlameCat]

966mb is quite deep. I was not expecting it to be that deep.

[tolakram]

The lack of a visible eye is fooling everyone. It prevents super rapid deepening, but it does not halt deepening. Levi explained it well in the last TT video.

[Teban54]

Once again, Ian shows IR presentation isn't everything. It was never a fan of convection from the start.

[AtlanticWind]

Satellite loop looks like due north now , but could be illusion.

[Nimbus]

Is that Ian starting a wobble due North? we shall find out

Data from recon was missing but the storm is near -83.5W 20.5N.
that would be 315 degrees NW so its do for a northerly wobble to bring it back to 330.

[Jr0d]

No comm during center pass, this is the other side.

https://i.imgur.com/9tzyQOu.png

Bad time to lose data/COM. Dropsone suggests pressure is around 965, perhaps lower in my amateur opinion.

Radar images from Grand Cayman and Cuba(Punta del Este) show the eye moving due north. Could be a wobble or could mean Ian is as far west as she'll get.

[skyline385]

There's the eye underneath, the structure is looking very good right now

[SouthernBreeze]

Due N from here would possibly hit a little more of mountains in Cuba

[Zonacane]

NHC dead on with the call to upgrade Ian

[Jr0d]

Eye drop supports 966 mb and the 87 kt FL winds + 80 kt SFMR is at least good enough for 80 kt. Probably also supports 85 kt due to undersampling.

Going to be interesting to see what they find in the NE quad.

Thank god recon is there to verify if Ian is truly moving due north.

If so, this is not good for me in Key West if this is true

[Evil Jeremy]

Stay safe my Florida peeps, especially those in the Tampa area which looks to be facing a catastrophic storm surge setup.

[CrazyC83]

That is also a 10 millibar drop in just 4 1/2 hours. The last Recon fix had 976 mb at around 1800Z.

[GCANE]

I am guessing from the drop and HDOB readings, we have a pinhole

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very, very impressive structure. It won't take much to push this to C3/C4.

[skyline385]

the 966mb right now (22:30Z) is also ahead of the 12Z HMON run which had a peak of 130 kts

[Iceresistance]

AF301 is descending to operational altitude.

[Aric Dunn]

The strange early ERC looks to have completed you can see the old eye rotating around in there. the outer eyewall is contracting and eyewall is becoming stronger and more circular. RI is fully under way.

[Hammy]

Surprised to see both winds and pressure lower than NHC estimate.