ATL: IAN - Models

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/Br2gL63.png

Only ~25 miles N of 18Z UKMET

Going to see the cone shift further east tonight probs

[tolakram]

You believe this. Suddenly straight in and over?

[NDG]

If this run is a fluke like the 06z run which was to the west of the 0z & 12z runs, it only validates a track towards the Tampa Bay area.
Have to wait if 0z GFS & early 0z tropical models also follow the 18z Euro to validate it.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Someone said earlier that the 582 line is pushing further south than models indicated at that particular time. That plus the more due-north vs NNW track this evening has probably caused the euro to shift SE. This could be what the UKMET was picking up on. We'll see.

[skyline385]

You believe this. Suddenly straight in and over?

https://i.imgur.com/7BXMj7c.png

It is possible, multiple reports today about the trough potentially digging in deeper than before. If that happens, then its getting yanked east quickly.

[tolakram]

GFS more accurate than Euro at this range, for what it's worth.

[chris_fit]

I mean this is almost exactly like Charley 2.0 - I bet last minute it veers right too

[toad strangler]

:

You believe this. Suddenly straight in and over?

https://i.imgur.com/7BXMj7c.png

Whoops!

[SFLcane]

Was not expecting that..

[hurricanedude]

East coast of the US may become into play

[AtlanticWind]

now that's a shift! puts SE FL more in play than previous runs, but not by much

May need tropical storm watches or warnings for se coast if trend continues

[skyline385]

This run would be bad for Central Fl

[NDG]

A track south of Tampa will mean the heaviest rain will fall over southern Pinellas and Tampa area because of the shear and dry air wrapping around the circulation will make the NW eyewall the strongest in precip.

[hohnywx]

Local met from Orlando:

 https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1574555112806051841

[ConvergenceZone]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

[TheHurricaneGod]

The 18z euro is likely based off of Ian's current position, which is assumed to be 40 miles east of the NHC's track at this point in time. That likely explains the SE shift. Sensitive forecast.

[gatorcane]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

Looks like it was missing data see above

[Blown Away]

It picked up nicely the almost due north heading it has started this evening.

https://i.imgur.com/8xXnMFR.gif

Geez that run is so very close to KW…

[blp]

If the Ukmet, Icon and Hmon and HWRF had all not shifted east on their last runs then I would buy that it was a bad euro run but this smells like another shift east.

[Blown Away]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

Looks like it was missing data see above

Also, GFS has been running E of Euro all day. The 00z GFS may be the most anticipated run so far!