WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

That's a very intense typhoon with a distinct pinhole eye.
Ive never seen a typhoon have a pinhole eye like this in the South China Sea after crossing the Philippines.

There's a developing concentric eyewall by the way.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ezgif-2-8a64040267.gif

That is a impressive radar presentation.

[mrbagyo]

18W NORU 220926 1800 15.9N 113.9E WPAC 90 956

90 knots appears way too low now, Noru might be back at STY strength with that distinct pinhole eye. Could be making a run at Cat 5 again if not already.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574505207857152000

[Highteeld]

Those feeder bands are very intense. Haiyan-esque

[StormTracker89]

NORU doing it's best RAI interpretation, making a run for super a second time around in the SCS.

[doomhaMwx]

That pinhole eye might have to go away soon as radar shows hints of an outer eyewall forming.

[doomhaMwx]

For a system in the South China Sea, the CMA seems to be closer to reality again.
JTWC 18Z: 90kt/956mb (1-min)
JMA 21Z: 80kt/960mb (10-min)
CMA 21Z: 105kt/930mb (2-min)

[Highteeld]

CMA is an underrated agency.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenCohenTC/status/1574543289381888000

[MarioProtVI]

Man, Noru trying to run at C5 again while inbound to one of the densely populated areas of Vietnam while Ian targets a city that hasn’t seen a major for a century. Mother Nature really hating us right now.

[doomhaMwx]

FY-4A VIS
Passing just south of the Paracel Islands (Xisha / Hoang Sa).

[Ntxw]

Noru is an absolute beast again. Scary for the central coast of Vietnam.

[Hurricane2022]

JTWC being JTWC
I think they will revise it later

18W NORU 220927 0000 15.5N 112.2E WPAC 90 956

[ElectricStorm]

18W NORU 220927 0000 15.5N 112.2E WPAC 125 944

[doomhaMwx]

Another massive Intensity increase from JTWC at 00Z, and the 90kts for 18Z was revised to 100kts. This is already the second time we've seen something like this in Noru's lifetime.

18W NORU 220927 0000 15.5N 112.2E WPAC 125 944
18W NORU 220926 1800 15.7N 114.0E WPAC 100 958

[Hurricane2022]

18W NORU 220927 0000 15.5N 112.2E WPAC 125 944

Thank God

[mrbagyo]

What's CMA's current intensity for 00z ?

[Ed_2001]

As with Noru’s first peak shear is impacting the system making the CDO less symmetrical compared to 2-3 hours ago, and the eye is cooling as well after making a run toward ow earlier. Still a very impressive system for scs and I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it peaked at C5 briefly earlier. Without shear, it almost looked as if Noru was trying to make a run for 155kts+

And once again, won’t change the fact that Noru will unfortunately soon make a devastating hit, likely as the strongest storm Vietnam have ever seen since reliable wpac record keeping began as iirc their strongest recorded typhoon was “only” 105kts

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎270000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TY ‎2216 ‎NORU ‎(2216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎270000UTC ‎15.5N ‎112.1E ‎GOOD
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎950HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎085KT
GUST ‎ ‎120KT
50KT ‎ ‎70NM
30KT ‎ ‎210NM ‎WEST ‎150NM ‎EAST
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎271200UTC ‎15.8N ‎110.3E ‎25NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎940HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎090KT
GUST ‎ ‎130KT
24HF ‎ ‎280000UTC ‎15.8N ‎108.2E ‎35NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎965HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT
48HF ‎ ‎290000UTC ‎16.3N ‎104.2E ‎60NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

[Ed_2001]

Interestingly, even though gfs and euro have foreseen a gradual weakening up to landfall, hwrf is showing intensification all the way until the end. I guess we will see soon enough…