Why does the "I curse" exist?

[Chris90]

The I curse is certainly one of the most crazy coincidences I've witnessed over the years! Way more impactful than the #8 and #10 tropical systems...

It gets me thinking, perhaps there really is something about the #9 from a more esoteric point of view. In the old practice of Numerology, the number 9 is regarded as meaning the end of a cycle, which often leads to destruction of some type. Sure not scientific, but a fun explanation for the I curse.

Interestingly enough, in Numerology, there are other 'curses' out there involving Tropical Cyclones. The biggest one I know is something we can call the '25 Curse'.

Many, too many perhaps, of the most monstrous Tropical Cyclones around the world have bombed out on dates that either add up to 25, or contain the #25 in the day number.
Many of these went on to cause epic destruction on the same dates.

Another weird coincidence up there with the I-curse, sure makes life more interesting in an odd way

You could apply the 25 curse to 2005 as well. It's just 25 with two zeros in the middle, so 2005 would still add up to 7 in numerology the same way 25 would.

[FireRat]

You could apply the 25 curse to 2005 as well. It's just 25 with two zeros in the middle, so 2005 would still add up to 7 in numerology the same way 25 would.

True indeed, that year was '25' and 20+05 = 25.
25 is part of the 7 family in Numerology but for some reason it is extremely eventful.

So far this month just 2 full dates add to 25, the 19th and now the 28th upcoming.
9.28.2022 = 9+2+8+2+0+2+2 = 25.

[Hurricane Mike]

Since about 10-12 years ago, we've also noticed and named many more storms that would have normally been overlooked, even in the early 2000s.

In 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin was barely a TS for a day. That allowed the "I" storm, "Irene", to be a major cane. It would've otherwise been Harvey.
In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene started as a subtropical low in April, briefly becoming tropical. This could have easily been missed 20 years ago or less. That allowed the "I" name storm, "Irma". It would've otherwise been Harvey.
In 2021, "Ana" and "Danny" were both and would have been overlooked in the past, in particular, Danny named right as it came into South Carolina. That allowed "Ida" to occur. It would've otherwise been Grace or Henri.

This year, Colin and possibly even Hermine would have been overlooked in year's past, especially Colin. "Ian" would be Gaston or Hermine.

[FireRat]

Ian enters the hall of infamy of the I curse, shocking events of today with him nearing Cat 5 strength at landfall.

[DioBrando]

The I curse is certainly one of the most crazy coincidences I've witnessed over the years! Way more impactful than the #8 and #10 tropical systems...

It gets me thinking, perhaps there really is something about the #9 from a more esoteric point of view. In the old practice of Numerology, the number 9 is regarded as meaning the end of a cycle, which often leads to destruction of some type. Sure not scientific, but a fun explanation for the I curse.

Speaking of the number 9, you know what else is cursed? 10L, but this time on the other side of the spectrum. A system designated 10L has never made it to major since Fabian in 2003 despite being a number that is typically assigned during peak season (and most 10Ls ended up as tropical storms). 10L has also been assigned to the most unnamed depressions as well this century (2004, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2020, and almost 2021 until that ASCAT pass made it over Kate). 2022 can add to that pattern as well, with Hermine being a shorty 40mph tropical storm that lasted a day.

Oh, and you know what? In 2017, 10L could have redeemed itself with Irma, the 10th tropical cyclone of the season. But 2017 was also the year they introduced PTCs, and you know what was assigned 10L? The infamous PTC 10, which became the first to fail to develop with a PTC label. Much like how 09Ls often overperform, 10Ls are often doomed to fail.

Idalia (10) and Harold (9) would like a word with you

[zhukm29]

The I curse is certainly one of the most crazy coincidences I've witnessed over the years! Way more impactful than the #8 and #10 tropical systems...

It gets me thinking, perhaps there really is something about the #9 from a more esoteric point of view. In the old practice of Numerology, the number 9 is regarded as meaning the end of a cycle, which often leads to destruction of some type. Sure not scientific, but a fun explanation for the I curse.

Speaking of the number 9, you know what else is cursed? 10L, but this time on the other side of the spectrum. A system designated 10L has never made it to major since Fabian in 2003 despite being a number that is typically assigned during peak season (and most 10Ls ended up as tropical storms). 10L has also been assigned to the most unnamed depressions as well this century (2004, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2020, and almost 2021 until that ASCAT pass made it over Kate). 2022 can add to that pattern as well, with Hermine being a shorty 40mph tropical storm that lasted a day.

Oh, and you know what? In 2017, 10L could have redeemed itself with Irma, the 10th tropical cyclone of the season. But 2017 was also the year they introduced PTCs, and you know what was assigned 10L? The infamous PTC 10, which became the first to fail to develop with a PTC label. Much like how 09Ls often overperform, 10Ls are often doomed to fail.

Idalia (10) and Harold (9) would like a word with you

I blame that on the NHC retroactively numbering the January subtropical storm before the season officially started, instead of after (like they typically do with post-season reanalysis), which would have given Idalia the number 9.

[AnnularCane]

Ugh...from now on no more letting storms go unnamed. Unless MAYBE it's the last one of the season or something. I knew this was going to happen.

[WalterWhite]

Idalia (2023) and Iota (2020) should not really count as part of the "I" curse. Most "I" storms are the 9th storm of the season, but Idalia (2023) was the 10th, and Iota (2020) was the 30th.

[zhukm29]

Idalia (2023) and Iota (2020) should not really count as part of the "I" curse. Most "I" storms are the 9th storm of the season, but Idalia (2023) was the 10th, and Iota (2020) was the 30th.

Which makes it even more amusing to be honest... like it shouldn't have happened, but some other factor unrelated to the tropics (e.g., not naming a storm, the main list having 21 names which made the 30th name the I name of the auxiliary list, etc.) still caused a name starting with the letter "I" to be a deadly storm. It is a "curse" after all haha

[HurricaneRyan]

Idalia may not even get retired though.

[DioBrando]

Now that we are faced with the potential for yet another destructive and notable I storm, this really got me wondering, but why exactly does the "I curse" exist? From Irma to Ida to Ivan to Ike to Inez and so on. Why is it the letter "I" or the 9th named storm, in particular? If it was as simple as I storms typically occurring during peak season, then that does not explain why H or J storms don't have as many retirable or retired names given H and J storms typically occur during peak season too (H has 6 and J has 5, which is quite a statistical difference from the 12 with I). Is this just a statistical freak occurrence/coincidence or is there more to it than what we are seeing? I'd love to hear and see what others in S2K think.

muh I curse in 2019, the H storm > the I storm then.

[DioBrando]

Idalia may not even get retired though.

Idalia was too cool for retirement

[MadaTheConquistador]

Since about 10-12 years ago, we've also noticed and named many more storms that would have normally been overlooked, even in the early 2000s.

In 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin was barely a TS for a day. That allowed the "I" storm, "Irene", to be a major cane. It would've otherwise been Harvey.
In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene started as a subtropical low in April, briefly becoming tropical. This could have easily been missed 20 years ago or less. That allowed the "I" name storm, "Irma". It would've otherwise been Harvey.
In 2021, "Ana" and "Danny" were both and would have been overlooked in the past, in particular, Danny named right as it came into South Carolina. That allowed "Ida" to occur. It would've otherwise been Grace or Henri.

This year, Colin and possibly even Hermine would have been overlooked in year's past, especially Colin. "Ian" would be Gaston or Hermine.

There was a very close call in 2024, as there was a disturbance off the coast of the Carolinas in late September that looked it for sure was gonna at least briefly develop into Tropical Strom Helene, but it ended up not developing. If that did end up being the case, that developing gulf storm (that later developed into Helene) would have been named Isaac instead, and Isaac would have been the 14th "I" name to be retired.

And also ngl I actually think it would be pretty ironic if "Ian" was named "Gaston", as there would have likely been some Beauty And The Beast memes regarding the villain of that film, whose name is Gaston.

[Hammy]

Ironic note though with Isaac, all five of the other lists the I name has been retired at least twice, that list? zero.

But quite a few of the names on either side have been retired at least once:

Florence (2018)
Gilbert (1988)
Helene (2024, almost assured)

Joan (1988)
Keith (2000)

[GSBHurricane]

As someone said earlier in this thread it's probably a coincidence exacerbated by the I name typically being used at the peak of hurricane season and some of those I names could have been H-names or J-names if things played out slightly differently.

[MadaTheConquistador]

It seems like the letter "I" isn't the only letter that seems to be cursed in the Atlantic. This past decade, we have seen a rise in destructive "M" named storms, with Matthew, Maria, Michael, and most recently Milton all becoming C5 monsters and causing loads of destruction, and it looks like Milton will be the 4th "M" named storm in the past 10 years to have its name retired. Now that Isaac has dodged retirement again, there's a possibility that Mother Nature could decide to pull the plug on Marco and Mindy, the last 2 OG "M" names on the Atlantic list, before she does with Isaac.

[TomballEd]

I'd say coincidence and I tending to be mid-season.

[Ulf]

The "I curse" only exists from the beginning of the 21st century onward after the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation moved into the warm phase in 1995 causing hurricane seasons to become much more active in general. Before that, hurricane season activity had bigger variation from year to year and thus the letters of names that got retired were a lot more varied with A, C, D, and F names getting retired as much as G and H relatively speaking.

The AMO warm phase combined with sea surface temperatures becoming higher in general due to climate change have caused all but one seasons since 2016 to be at least above average in number of named storms. This ensures that "I" storms will always form during peak season. This is why 11 out of 13 retired "I" storms happened between 2001 and 2022.

If the 2022 season had activity in August instead of the pause we got, then I am sure Fiona would have been named Ian instead and still got retired anyway.

[MadaTheConquistador]

The "I curse" only exists from the beginning of the 21st century onward after the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation moved into the warm phase in 1995 causing hurricane seasons to become much more active in general. Before that, hurricane season activity had bigger variation from year to year and thus the letters of names that got retired were a lot more varied with A, C, D, and F names getting retired as much as G and H relatively speaking.

The AMO warm phase combined with sea surface temperatures becoming higher in general due to climate change have caused all but one seasons since 2016 to be at least above average in number of named storms. This ensures that "I" storms will always form during peak season. This is why 11 out of 13 retired "I" storms happened between 2001 and 2022.

If the 2022 season had activity in August instead of the pause we got, then I am sure Fiona would have been named Ian instead and still got retired anyway.

If that was the case, if I were to guess, Ian probably would have been named something like Martin instead.