WPAC: NORU - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

I missed several frames between 0003 and 0044 local time.

Xisha 150 kms


Xisha extended range (300 kms)

[doomhaMwx]

CMA expects more significant strengthening until landfall but I personally think this has peaked.

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY NORU 2216 (2216) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC
00HR 15.5N 112.1E 925HPA 58M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 18KM/H
P+06HR 15.4N 111.2E 915HPA 62M/S
P+12HR 15.6N 110.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+18HR 15.6N 109.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 15.6N 108.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+36HR 15.7N 106.2E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 16.2N 104.4E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

[Highteeld]

eye shrinking and wobbling. it might be doing an ERC right now

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

eye shrinking and wobbling. it might be doing an ERC right now

^Yeah, latest radar image now clearly shows the secondary eyewall and a weakening inner eyewall.

[mrbagyo]

CMA expects more significant strengthening until landfall but I personally think this has peaked.

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY NORU 2216 (2216) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC
00HR 15.5N 112.1E 925HPA 58M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 18KM/H
P+06HR 15.4N 111.2E 915HPA 62M/S
P+12HR 15.6N 110.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+18HR 15.6N 109.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 15.6N 108.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+36HR 15.7N 106.2E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 16.2N 104.4E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

Maybe they are banking on their homegrown numerical weather prediction model. I saw it posted onanother forum that CMA TYM model predicted it to reach sub 900.

[mrbagyo]

The mostly flat Hoi An city will get the full brunt of the RFQ if it moves just south of the city. This could be a significant fluvial flood plus storm surge event.

[Ed_2001]

Looking better again on IR

[bob rulz]

What are the conditions near Vietnam that make major typhoon landfalls so rare? I imagine waters are plenty warm enough - is it just an area that usually has stable air or high wind shear? Or is it just because any major storms that make it there have probably been disrupted significantly by land beforehand?

[TyphoonNara]

What are the conditions near Vietnam that make major typhoon landfalls so rare? I imagine waters are plenty warm enough - is it just an area that usually has stable air or high wind shear? Or is it just because any major storms that make it there have probably been disrupted significantly by land beforehand?

Several reasons. Firstly, even though the SCS usually has high SSTs, it has generally pretty poor OHC, something that is needed for the larger tropical cyclones we frequently see in the WPac. Secondly, most SCS-native cyclones are usually too short-lived to explode into high intensities. Thirdly, it is quite rare for typhoons to restructure themselves quickly and undergo RI again if they made landfall over the Philippines prior to entering the SCS. And finally, Vietnamese landfall is in itself quite rare because most typhoons would have steered much more northwards at that longitude.

[bob rulz]

That makes a lot of sense. So basically geography is the major reason, moreso than the conditions in the SCS itself. Thanks for the explanation!

[mrbagyo]

Any obs from this island?

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC 00Z estimate has been revised to 130kts STY. Impressive RI from 75kts to 130kts in 24hrs! Noru is one of only few supertyphoons recorded by JTWC in the SCS, and last one was Rai just in 2021.

18W NORU 220927 0600 15.6N 111.2E WPAC 125 934
18W NORU 220927 0000 15.4N 112.0E WPAC 130 930
18W NORU 220926 1800 15.8N 113.6E WPAC 105 954
18W NORU 220926 1200 15.9N 115.4E WPAC 90 967
18W NORU 220926 0600 15.9N 116.9E WPAC 80 965
18W NORU 220926 0000 15.9N 118.4E WPAC 75 979

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/CyanideCN_/status/1574665295901229057

[doomhaMwx]

The eastern side of Noru looks flattened and its eye is now fully cloud-filled with irregulary-shaped CDO due to easterly shear, and with the storm still maintaining a concentric eyewall structure, I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing a final surprise intensification before landfall (~18hrs from now).

[dexterlabio]

Going back to Noru’s shocking development from a TS to Cat5 in 1day, I saw posts saying that no one saw this happening…I believe GFS was the first to show a strong typhoon impacting Luzon but that model solution was suddenly dropped. After that one run all the models were showing a weak TS at best.

[doomhaMwx]

18W NORU 220927 1800 16.0N 109.0E WPAC 95 958

T2216(Noru)
Issued at 2022/09/27 19:05 UTC

Analysis at 09/27 18 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°05′ (16.1°)
E108°50′ (108.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NW390 km (210 NM)
SE280 km (150 NM)

Nearing landfall

[underthwx]

CMA expects more significant strengthening until landfall but I personally think this has peaked.

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY NORU 2216 (2216) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC
00HR 15.5N 112.1E 925HPA 58M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 18KM/H
P+06HR 15.4N 111.2E 915HPA 62M/S
P+12HR 15.6N 110.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+18HR 15.6N 109.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 15.6N 108.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+36HR 15.7N 106.2E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 16.2N 104.4E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

NORU proved itself a powerful force of nature. I hope for the well being of those who experienced NORU thus far, and for those who will encounter the cyclone. I'm thankful for my family in the Philippines that are safe after NORUs passage...

[doomhaMwx]

Now making landfall near/over Hoi An City in Central Vietnam. Fortunately, the system weakened quite substantially before landfall. Still impactful to the region, nonetheless.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/su0601/status/1574841499962904576