ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormingB81]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.

He stated “southern Sarasota county but that’s not definite and there will be wobbles” and “it’ll be in the NHC 11am advisory”

[La Sirena]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.

I heard him say the same thing on TWC which is carrying the press conference. Wasn’t sure myself who was giving him that info.

[Aric Dunn]

Side note(s) about the dry air..

1. the ridging sliding east from texas region is starting to shunt the dry air more on a SW vector rather than south ( per the models). This is important as it would hold off the entrainment until well after landfall.

2. no real signs of any of the dry air from the east. Euro in particular has a ton of dry air that essentially starts pinching off the moisture feed between the gulf dry air and atlantic. lack of data in that part of the atlantic as led many to question the models in that respect.

[CronkPSU]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.

i can confirm from watching on TV that is what HE said

[tolakram]

Let's restrict what we put here to emergency management types and not politicians, they can misspeak without realizing it.

[emeraldislenc]

Just heard the Governor announce it on his press conference which was broadcast live on the Weather Channel it is on live now. I would not post information that is not true. He said updates would be made at 11 am advisory.

[Iceresistance]

Eye of Ian coming offshore of Cuba, producing a lot of lightning in the Northern Eyewall.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just heard the Governor announce it on his press conference which was broadcast live on the Weather Channel it is on live now. I would not post information that is not true. He said updates would be made at 11 am advisory.

Many of us heard it as well. That the 11am advisory would reflect it.

[Gatos del Sol]

Looks like it is already down to the Florida Panhandle. Don't think it was supposed to be here yet.

Forecast overnight low near Destin is 64F, so the dry air is definitely setting up. (Last week’s dew points were running about 10 degrees higher)

[TallyTracker]

The air does feel a bit cooler and drier than last night in Tallahassee. I think the trough is right over us. The chances of a Panhandle landfall appear to be diminishing though I’m still watching closely.

I'm currently in your fair town (albeit at risk with a Gators plate) after fleein' Ian from Clearwater and am enjoying actual sub-70 dewpoints *and* temperatures. Looks like I won't have to be on the move again since the chance of the storm making a real impact up here is dwindling.

Welcome! We’ll give you a pass with the gator tag this once! lol The weather is looking rather pleasant the next few days so I’d recommend Cascades Park and Tom Brown Park for some nice strolls. Maybe a rainband or two on Friday and Saturday.

[AutoPenalti]

Respectfully, unless there's an actual linkable source, I can't trust what politicians say. NHC can't precisely nail down exact landfall a day or two out...

[tolakram]

Just heard the Governor announce it on his press conference which was broadcast live on the Weather Channel it is on live now. I would not post information that is not true. He said updates would be made at 11 am advisory.

Many of us heard it as well. That the 11am advisory would reflect it.

I believe all of you that heard it. Do you believe that's the information the NHC wanted out there? The same organization that is emphatic about not following the line? Knowing the past NHC accuracy is that the correct message to spread and if not, why spread it?

[aspen]

Emerging off of Cuba with an excellent structure.


I'm now very concerned about RI until landfall. I thought it was highly unlikely, but now that Ian's track has shifted further east and it didn't take much of a hit from its Cuba landfall, it has become a very real possibility. It might not get nearly as much shear with this track as it would've if it went north of Tampa towards the panhandle. Also, SSTs/MPI are nuclear in Ian's path. Let's hope that shear kicks in sooner than later.

[skyline385]

That structure, no wonder it barely flinched moving over land




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[underthwx]

Let's restrict what we put here to emergency management types and not politicians, they can misspeak without realizing it.

True that, take news clips like that with a grain of salt....

[La Sirena]

Just heard the Governor announce it on his press conference which was broadcast live on the Weather Channel it is on live now. I would not post information that is not true. He said updates would be made at 11 am advisory.

Many of us heard it as well. That the 11am advisory would reflect it.

I believe all of you that heard it. Do you believe that's the information the NHC wanted out there? The same organization that is emphatic about not following the line? Knowing the past NHC accuracy is that the correct message to spread and if not, why spread it?

No clue but he was standing there with his emergency directors. I’m not sure why he felt the need to announce something that sounds so finalized unless he’s feeling fear or frustration at dealing with this situation and it’s ever decreasing window before arrival.

[TallyTracker]

Do we have any idea what the shear vector will be over the Gulf when Ian reaches the coast? I’m concerned the storm may not weaken as much if it’s moving more with the shear vector.

[Iceresistance]

Emerging off of Cuba with an excellent structure.
https://i.imgur.com/SQI6uRc.jpg

I'm now very concerned about RI until landfall. I thought it was highly unlikely, but now that Ian's track has shifted further east and it didn't take much of a hit from its Cuba landfall, it has become a very real possibility. It might not get nearly as much shear with this track as it would've if it went north of Tampa towards the panhandle. Also, SSTs/MPI are nuclear in Ian's path. Let's hope that shear kicks in sooner than later.
https://i.imgur.com/zJ4AjEr.png
https://i.imgur.com/4TrraX2.png

This unfortunately does not appear to be the case because the wind shear appears to be favorable directionally.

[GCANE]

CAPE slowly increasing west of Tampa.
Up to 3000

[ronjon]

CAPE slowly increasing west of Tampa.
Up to 3000

What does that mean?