ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3081 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:47 am

Shear is negligible thru 500mb.
There is a 35 to 40 knot jet at 300mb in the NE GoM, just north and west of Tampa
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3082 Postby dpep4 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:48 am

tolakram wrote:Let's restrict what we put here to emergency management types and not politicians, they can misspeak without realizing it.


The person who first said it at the news conference was Florida's Emergency Management Director. He said that the NHC had told him near Venice. When he finished the governor ask him about it again and it was stated that it will be in the NHC's 11am forecast.

I watched the entire conference, it was more than the governor speaking, and it was very clear that both the FEM director and the governor have been in close contact with the NHC. They both gave the usual mentions of forecast uncertainty and it could/will affect a large area of the state.
Last edited by dpep4 on Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3083 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:48 am

ronjon wrote:
GCANE wrote:CAPE slowly increasing west of Tampa.
Up to 3000


What does that mean?


Increased instability.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3084 Postby blp » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:48 am

I keep seeing this heading more NNE. Recon fixes are confirming this

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3085 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:48 am

ronjon wrote:
GCANE wrote:CAPE slowly increasing west of Tampa.
Up to 3000


What does that mean?


More energy to ramp up
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3086 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:48 am

GCANE wrote:CAPE slowly increasing west of Tampa.
Up to 3000


i am here all the time but maybe it would be helpful to those here for the first time, what that means and what it means to storm development
Last edited by CronkPSU on Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3087 Postby PandaCitrus » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:49 am

They are just putting out the best data available. TVCN consensus model is southern Sarasota County and with possible east shifts it could come in further south. There's currently 1 Million+ in the Ft. Myers/Naples metro not taking this storm seriously and it is very possible if it comes in on the south track the shear may not weaken it in time and it comes in at a Cat 4. I believe NHC will move the track south and east at 11AM from looking at the data.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3088 Postby shawn67 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:49 am

tolakram wrote:
emeraldislenc wrote:Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.


Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.


https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/hu ... 022-09-27/
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3089 Postby blp » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:50 am

East of track again.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3090 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:51 am

Image
Pretty clear movement, nice to have a well defined eye.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3091 Postby shah83 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:52 am

Wobble watching isn't a productive use of time. People were talking about Isle of Youth landfall only last night, so it may well correct west again.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3092 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:52 am

Hitting the water with a vengeance.
Near 60mm/hr rain rate.
High probability goes to a Cat 4.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3093 Postby underthwx » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:Emerging off of Cuba with an excellent structure.
https://i.imgur.com/SQI6uRc.jpg

I'm now very concerned about RI until landfall. I thought it was highly unlikely, but now that Ian's track has shifted further east and it didn't take much of a hit from its Cuba landfall, it has become a very real possibility. It might not get nearly as much shear with this track as it would've if it went north of Tampa towards the panhandle. Also, SSTs/MPI are nuclear in Ian's path. Let's hope that shear kicks in sooner than later.
https://i.imgur.com/zJ4AjEr.png
https://i.imgur.com/4TrraX2.png


This unfortunately does not appear to be the case because the wind shear appears to be favorable directionally.


Unless I'm mistaken, Wxman57 discussed the shear that will affect Ian, and weaken it somewhat upon its approach to land...this is an excerpt from the 5am NHC discussion..."By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening." By favorable wind shear, do you mean favorable because it will weaken Ian somewhat?....Just to be clear Ice, thanks!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3094 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:54 am

Amazing how quick the eye is snapping back.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3095 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:55 am

Hopefully the trough will get that 300mb jet well over Tampa before landfall.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3096 Postby Lolyer » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:55 am

ronjon wrote:
GCANE wrote:CAPE slowly increasing west of Tampa.
Up to 3000


What does that mean?


Storm fuel

Convective Available Potential Energy

Cape and other measurements are used to forecast storm volatility.

To keep it simple, a tornado can spin up in 1000 cape with other environment support.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3097 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:56 am

blp wrote:I keep seeing this heading more NNE. Recon fixes are confirming this

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec25e41ad8bdad9309ada4dd0f333a4e284991748ef080e1af8d3fc6a3f1f958.png

With how fast pressure was rising over land, Ian might have actually been in the lower 940s as at least a high-end Cat 3, possibly Cat 4, at Cuba landfall.

That would be insane as it was "only" 90 kts at 11pm, and recon supported 95 kts at ~12am. Explosive intensification just before landfall likely happened.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3098 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:57 am

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
855 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0544.html

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South Florida
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until
500 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3099 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:57 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3100 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:57 am

Down the rode I think we could see more problems for Florida east coast and potentially the southeast coast of US especially if the storm moves into the Atlantic.
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