2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[zzzh]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/JUVy92k.png

Watch as X becomes the 10th named storm and then another system forms in the deep tropics early next month.

Yeah, “wave breaking” can only do so much to hamper a La Nina year. Neutral or El Niño, maybe a different story.

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/JUVy92k.png

Congrats for snapping the screenshot just before they updated Fiona to post-tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1573508908567535617

[869MB]

Your wish is my command!

https://i.postimg.cc/mktQXkYB/CFS2-JPEG.gif

As illustrated above, in mid-July, the CFS had one system affecting the Canadian Maritimes followed by another system heading towards Florida from the southeast during this general time period in late September. Not bad…not bad at all.

Yeah, I know s2k user Hammy has mentioned that it generally depicted a sharply backloaded with an onset delayed by a couple weeks relative to the climatological peak... very interesting indeed

For some reason I left this thread open in another browser since July with SFLcane’s post being the last one, so I decided to analyze that CFS run again, discovering the depiction it forecasted during this time was fairly accurate.

[ChrisH-UK]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1573508908567535617

What's the interesting part for me is half of the 8 has been the last 4 years.

[weeniepatrol]

I'll never understand the seasonal bustcasting.

[Teban54]

I'll never understand the seasonal bustcasting.

https://i.imgur.com/yNK3wJU.jpg

And storm bustcasting.

First Ian was supposed to be an Issac/Erika repeat and not even become a hurricane, at least until after Cuba. Then when it actually became one, it was thought to never reach Cat 2.

[weeniepatrol]

don't really know what to say

[Category5Kaiju]

don't really know what to say

https://i.imgur.com/mMwlz49.gif

If I ever see another premature season cancel post ever, I'll just post that image in response without any words or context.

[weeniepatrol]

don't really know what to say

https://i.imgur.com/mMwlz49.gif

If I ever see another premature season cancel post ever, I'll just post that image in response without any words or context.

I'm sure they'll come as soon as July '23

[aspen]

I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.

[AnnularCane]

I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.

Barring Short Memory Syndrome.

[toad strangler]

I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.

Ya, the couple of posts on Ian’s slow development you made in that thread as if it was part of some weird 2022 stuff going on is the easy thing to do when the developments aren’t what one would expect. That’s human nature. So is jumping the gun on thinking this season might be one of the slowest on records in a few posts back in late August and September. The volcano stuff was flying around along with wave breaking and other things.

I probably would have been right with you back a couple decades as a younger dude. Gotta let tropical seasons the time to make that call!

[Category5Kaiju]

How much do we want to bet that 2023 will feature yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall? Especially in the GoM?

[weeniepatrol]

How much do we want to bet that 2023 will feature yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall? Especially in the GoM?

Hoping for this extended La Nina to finally transition into some sort of warm-flavoured ENSO by then.

[weeniepatrol]

speaks for itself

[WiscoWx02]

I know it’s a bit soon and Ian is far from done with the US, but I don’t think we are gonna see much of a break here if the GEFS and EPS have anything to say about the matter Fortunately the wave coming off Africa both models really like recurves and is just an ACE producer but there are rumbles for something in the Caribbean down the line. I’m never gonna season cancel AGAIN. Never. This year had taught me A LOT. And I don’t think it’s anywhere near over yet tbh.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1575468603239022593

[Teban54]

speaks for itself

https://i.imgur.com/MoQu2WB.png

Not to forget this uses 1991-2020 climo with an inflated number of active years. If 1951-2020 (like NOAA) or 1981-2010 (like previously) were used, which were both balanced between the +AMO and -AMO eras, we're probably near average in ACE now.