ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

12z

Current Position.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/3ggfZwh.png
12z
https://i.imgur.com/qPtmehF.jpg
Current Position.

Even east of the ukmet there.

[Michele B]

The Charley scenario of a late turn needs to be emphasized as a possibility. The angle of approach means that a slight change in track makes a big difference in landfall point. Hopefully no one gets caught off guard if that does happen.

Went through Charley with it going right over my house.

Trust me, we are NOT letting our guard down. In fact, we have "felt" like it's Charley 2.0 all along.

[TheHurricaneGod]

https://i.imgur.com/3ggfZwh.png
12z
https://i.imgur.com/qPtmehF.jpg
Current Position.

I'm thinking the further east it continues to end up, the sharper the turn would be. But it could just as easily "wobble" back west again.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1574766423066480641

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wouldn't let your guard down in Lee County either

[Michele B]

I wouldn't let your guard down in Lee County either

True. If it continues to make that eastward "jog," then Lee County could be in the eye wall....very strong weather there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wouldn't let your guard down in Lee County either

True. If it continues to make that eastward "jog," then Lee County could be in the eye wall....very strong weather there.

The Hurricane Warning goes down to Bonita Beach. That is Lee (and almost Collier) County

[hurricaneCW]

https://i.imgur.com/3ggfZwh.png
12z
https://i.imgur.com/qPtmehF.jpg
Current Position.

This would certainly leave the door open for a 2nd landfall after Florida.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Largest influence on Charley's path near landfall on approach to west FL coast was as such - https://www.lakeeriewx.com/CaseStudies/HurricaneCharley/Charley'sTurn.gif ...lest we forget

Ian's modeled setup is =

GFS - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Euro = https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Wed NCEP analysis https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fndfd_init_2022092700.gif

I'd say they were very similar in setup - however the placement of Ian and current front differs and more importantly Ian's size ( mass) and the strength of the front is different. Remains to be seen but east shifts seem plausible and that puts any movement NW downstream in question UKMET has been onto something for quite a few runs. The fluid dynamics are key in how this is handled by each model.

[jdray]

WPC QPF (along with Euro/HWRF-P/GFS) is showing some very high rainfall amounts.
A good part of Tampa up through North Florida could see 15+ inches through Saturday. Remember, wind and storm surge isn't the only concern with this storm.




HWRF-P - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=09L&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2022092706&fh=75

Euro - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2022092706&fh=90

GFS - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2022092706&fh=114

[Meteorcane]

ICON sticking mostly to its guns with a Englewoodish landfall then a trek through the central Peninsula, and then re-emergence in the Atlantic (and some restrengthening probably high end Cat1-low end Cat 2) and then finally a second CONUS landfall in SC

[tolakram]

Let's try to stay on topic please.

12Z GFS running

[tolakram]

South again

[Beef Stew]

Landfalls at roughly hour 42 around Venice. Not that we should be using the GFS for MSLP anyhow, but it initializes about 25mbar higher than Ian was at 0z.

[tolakram]

STAY ON TOPIC, I tried to be nice before, I mean it. If you can't resist replying to something you disagree with I will remove posting privilege's until after Ian. It's too easy when people are nervous to fill pages of rants that take away from the usefulness of this thread. It wasn't just one post, so don't take it personally.

[tolakram]

I think I said an hour or so ago that no reliable models put Ian in the Atlantic. It's getting closer.

12Z GFS

[toad strangler]

12z GFS tries to rain Ian out over the peninsula

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12Z ICON