ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Watching some pop ups in the GoM, south of LA and east of TX/MX border.
If they develop, could erode the trough some.

I have also observed that the trough looks like it's progession has stopped

[caneman]

Debris from the convection east of the TX/MX border is lifting the trof along the LA coast.

If the trough starts to lift up, I’m assuming that means that Tampa & Sarasota might not be in the clear?

I mentioned above that on water vapor it looks like the trough has stopped its progression

[jhpigott]

Eye well east of forecast track. In fact the west eyewall sits on the track.

GCANE - Can't tell you how much we appreciate your input here. Fascinating to read your thoughts on hurricane dynamics. Do you have any thoughts about landfall point on the Florida west coast?

[GCANE]

Debris from the convection east of the TX/MX border is lifting the trof along the LA coast.

If the trough starts to lift up, I’m assuming that means that Tampa & Sarasota might not be in the clear?

A possibility.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Trough still pushing south over Georgia and Alabama based on WV. It has slowed down, though.

[GCANE]

Eye well east of forecast track. In fact the west eyewall sits on the track.

GCANE - Can't tell you how much we appreciate your input here. Fascinating to read your thoughts on hurricane dynamics. Do you have any thoughts about landfall point on the Florida west coast?

Much thanks.
I really can't pin point anything.
Possibility of trof lifting, steering east of forecast track, who knows what else.

[caneman]

Trough still pushing south over Georgia and Alabama based on WV. It has slowed down, though.

Barely pushing. I see no further push into the Gulf near Florida. Could be interesting. Will need to watch. It's decent bit further West than the trough that pushed Charley.

[robbielyn]

with the current trend what will be the winds and rain amounts in sw hernando county? obviously significantly decreased the further south and east it goes. trying to determine staying or leaving. high point mobile park in brooksville. i’m worried about the rain more than the wind at this point

[LandoWill]

Gonna be honest as a 40+ year resident of the tampa area. Time and time again this happens. New people experience the panic and this happens. Luckily.. there was a 18 year gap this time, this next time. It may not be that long. I would wholehardly be lying if I said I wasn't being complacent today, I don't want to go out and anchor the trampoline when it's making land fall 120 miles southwest of me. or go fill 30 bags of sand....

[Iceresistance]

No signal from AF302 in the past 20-30 minutes

[AnnularCane]

When I evacuated for Katrina we took the back roads and didn't have any problems. I-10 was gridlocked to Mobile.....MGC

I lived in Nola during Katrina, we waited until 11 PM 36 hrs before landfall to head for Baton Rouge on I-10, it was almost non stop, we were there in no time.
It never fails that most people all want to evacuate during the middle of the day, which is what causes the huge jams.

We left for Katrina in the predawn hours, somewhere around 4 or 5 am. There were more cars on the road than you'd normally expect for that hour on a Sunday, of course, but everything seemed to be moving well enough and we never spent hours in a traffic jam.

[aspen]

delete

[Ed_2001]

IMO even though Northport-Fort Myers line seem like the area for the greatest risk of direct hit based on current model prognosis, no one between Clearwater and Naples should be considered “in the clear” until the storm passes. Especially not Sarasota, where the NHC cone center is lying over.

[CryHavoc]

Increased convection in the eyewall along with mass lightning strikes leads me to believe that Ian will be cat 4 shortly and might make a run at 5.

[Wakeknight]

Gonna be honest as a 40+ year resident of the tampa area. Time and time again this happens. New people experience the panic and this happens. Luckily.. there was a 18 year gap this time, this next time. It may not be that long. I would wholehardly be lying if I said I wasn't being complacent today, I don't want to go out and anchor the trampoline when it's making land fall 120 miles southwest of me.

Just flip it over

[Iceresistance]

AF302 hasn’t transmitted in over 20 minutes, and the plane with working communications and pressure readings is just a buoy mission. Not really a great recon performance.

We just got the signal back on AF302, hoping that more data will eventually come in.

[Owasso]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...3 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
the minimum pressure has decreased to 952 mb (28.11 in).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[gatorcane]

Interesting says moving North but looks more NNE to me.

[Weatherboy1]

Ian certainly looks to be headed NNE not N. And pressure making a run at sub-950 here …

[SapphireSea]

Interesting says moving North but looks more NNE to me.

Moving at 010 degrees, so there is confirmed some E movement. Could be wobbling between 000 to 025 degrees averaging to 010.