ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...3 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
the minimum pressure has decreased to 952 mb (28.11 in).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[wxman57]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

[Category6]

Interesting says moving North but looks more NNE to me.

It's been moving NNE pretty much the whole day.

[Weatherboy1]

Amazing to think the GFS was calling Ian a central Gulf/far west panhandle storm not too long ago. Icon, UKMET, Euro have been much better with the general idea/track

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1574834261370187776

[aspen]

When does the next low-level recon mission head out?

[tolakram]

Amazing to think the GFS was calling Ian a central Gulf/far west panhandle storm not too long ago. Icon, UKMET, Euro have been much better with the general idea/track

Prove it. I think the Euro has been better 90+ hours but not under 90 hours. I have a bias for longer term forecasts so Euro seems to do better, but the actual verification data shows the Euro doing just a mediocre job under 72 hours. In other words, don't make blanket statements.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon all
with this change in track coming in further south, would that change the conditions here in Key Largo other than what we already have rain a little wind and possible storm surge? change

[jhpigott]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

Anybody have the graphics for the new TVCN track?

[psyclone]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

Good thing because no one was heeding the evac calls last night and traffic is dead now too.

[fci]

Interesting says moving North but looks more NNE to me.

Movement at 10 degrees is slightly East of Due North

[Iceresistance]

VDM has 954 mb

. 27/18:19:00Z
B. 23.57 deg N 083.33 deg W
C. 700 mb 2688 m
D. 954 mb
E. 210 deg 14 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C19
H. 101 kt
I. 051 deg 11 nm 18:15:30Z
J. 143 deg 110 kt
K. 051 deg 12 nm 18:15:00Z
L. 103 kt
M. 328 deg 11 nm 18:28:00Z
N. 052 deg 96 kt
O. 326 deg 13 nm 18:28:30Z
P. 8 C / 3069 m
Q. 17 C / 3054 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm

[SapphireSea]

Afternoon all
with this change in track coming in further south, would that change the conditions here in Key Largo other than what we already have rain a little wind and possible storm surge? change

Increasing seas and winds as Ian closes in. Probably close to TS winds except maybe heavier in any given bands. I imagine surge would be relatively marginal if any.

[Tireman4]

I know he is extremely busy, but I wished @Hurakan would check in. It would be cool for him to give us what it is like during the intense moments.

[tolakram]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you sapp

I keep seeing possible surge of 2 to 4 ft I am on a canal bayside so will some what happens.

[d3v123]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

How’s Bradenton looking with these tracks?

[LandoWill]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

They gonna close the post office and schools here all week for a summer thunderstorm event SMH.. i get it the evacs, things looked bad.But, come on closing down businesses and schools for the whole week, when its just a rain event?

[Extratropical94]

That 117 kt gust 50ft above ground from the N/NE eyewall drop is quite impressive.

[tolakram]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

They gonna close the post office and schools here all week for a summer thunderstorm event SMH.. i get it the evacs, things looked bad.But, come on closing down businesses and schools for the whole week, when its just a rain event?

That's the best that can be done with the forecast accuracy we currently have. It hasn't made landfall yet so we still don't know exactly where it's going.