ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

They gonna close the post office and schools here all week for a summer thunderstorm event SMH.. i get it the evacs, things looked bad.But, come on closing down businesses and schools for the whole week, when its just a rain event?

Bruh

They had to give people time to leave, always better to be safe than sorry

[Iceresistance]

ADT has just updated to All T#'s at 6.7, 132 knots.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2022 Time : 185020 UTC
Lat : 23:40:48 N Lon : 83:13:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928mb / 132kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

[RevanTheJedi96]

That 117 kt gust 50ft above ground from the N/NE eyewall drop is quite impressive.

Chances that was just a gust?

[AutoPenalti]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

They gonna close the post office and schools here all week for a summer thunderstorm event SMH.. i get it the evacs, things looked bad.But, come on closing down businesses and schools for the whole week, when its just a rain event?

We don't even know where landfall is going to occur even 24 hours out. So it's understandable.

[Teban54]

I know recon is in there to give us the actual intensity, but from appearance alone, this really looks like a mid-grade Cat 4 more than a mid-grade Cat 3.

[birdwomn]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

Good thing because no one was heeding the evac calls last night and traffic is dead now too.

There was a fair amount of traffic heading out early this morning and I did see a large number of folks at the home supply stores buying plywood early this morning - so that is a good thing.

[THC_Scientist]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

Agreed, captain! Tampa dodges another bullet.

[CrazyC83]

Next Recon isn't until this evening. However, we do have radar velocities available.

[Fancy1001]

What is recon doing.

[emings]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

They gonna close the post office and schools here all week for a summer thunderstorm event SMH.. i get it the evacs, things looked bad.But, come on closing down businesses and schools for the whole week, when its just a rain event?

Summer thunderstorm? 20 inches+ of rain is no joke this is really bad take IMO especially if it Floods

[InfernoFlameCat]

EWRC appears to be commencing based on radar. The moat is reaching 3/4 around the core, and the outer eyewall is taking shape.

[Fancy1001]

EWRC appears to be commencing based on radar. The moat is reaching 3/4 around the core, and the outer eyewall is taking shape.

Can you post an image, I’m having a difficult time seeing the moat.

[Extratropical94]

That 117 kt gust 50ft above ground from the N/NE eyewall drop is quite impressive.

Chances that was just a gust?

Yep, it was a gust. A bit higher up the sonde measured "only" 94kts. Still matches quite nicely with the NHC estimate of 105kt sustained

[cheezyWXguy]

Moat is obvious now on radar, eyewall is almost completely detached and becoming unstable. May see winds get high enough for cat4 upgrade before EWRC limits intensification

[Iceresistance]

EWRC appears to be commencing based on radar. The moat is reaching 3/4 around the core, and the outer eyewall is taking shape.

Can you post an image, I’m having a difficult time seeing the moat.

I have the link to the NWS-Key West, the radar is visible on the site

https://www.weather.gov/key/

[Category5Kaiju]

Are we sure an EWRC is imminent though? Because iirc from storms like Ida or Michael, that term seemed to get thrown around quite a bit but such didn't really end up occurring from what I recall if I am not mistaken. Just curious to know of course.

[cheezyWXguy]

Are we sure an EWRC is imminent though? Because iirc from storms like Ida or Michael, that term seemed to get thrown around quite a bit but such didn't really end up occurring from what I recall if I am not mistaken. Just curious to know of course.

I guess it’s not imminent, there’s a chance it could fail, but the eyewall characteristics on radar, as well as the clear double wind maximum on velocity make it seem increasingly likely

[Fancy1001]

EWRC appears to be commencing based on radar. The moat is reaching 3/4 around the core, and the outer eyewall is taking shape.

Can you post an image, I’m having a difficult time seeing the moat.

I have the link to the NWS-Key West, the radar is visible on the site

https://www.weather.gov/key/

Thank you

[tolakram]

[jfk08c]

Are we sure an EWRC is imminent though? Because iirc from storms like Ida or Michael, that term seemed to get thrown around quite a bit but such didn't really end up occurring from what I recall if I am not mistaken. Just curious to know of course.

Based off the radar, it sure looks like it. You can see the cleared out area, or "moat", starting to encircle the current eyewall. And the current eyewall is starting to open up a little. Should be a classic sign that it is trying