ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

https://i.imgur.com/sdQcElJ.gif

I guess the question we should start asking is how long will the EWRC take to complete?

[jhpigott]

Future radar from our local news affiliate looks like we are in for a good soaking from a training band along coastal Palm Beach County later this afternoon/evening

https://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

[chris_fit]

Saved Loop

[jfk08c]

https://i.imgur.com/sdQcElJ.gif

I guess the question we should start asking is how long will the EWRC take to complete?

Whenever it finishes its steroid injections

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/sdQcElJ.gif

I guess the question we should start asking is how long will the EWRC take to complete?

I worry not enough time. 28-30 hours is plenty of time to complete in this environment

[tronbunny]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-82.3878

with the current trend what will be the winds and rain amounts in sw hernando county? obviously significantly decreased the further south and east it goes. trying to determine staying or leaving. high point mobile park in brooksville. i’m worried about the rain more than the wind at this point

[aspen]

Next Recon isn't until this evening. However, we do have radar velocities available.

Darn, they’ll probably miss Ian’s peak since an EWRC is getting ready to start.

[Fancy1001]

https://i.imgur.com/sdQcElJ.gif

I guess the question we should start asking is how long will the EWRC take to complete?

Whenever it finishes its steroid injections

Seriously though, if it finishes in 6 to 12 hours it will still have almost a whole day before landfall to re-intensify

[Fancy1001]

Next Recon isn't until this evening. However, we do have radar velocities available.

Darn, they’ll probably miss Ian’s peak since an EWRC is getting ready to start.

I have a bad feeling that the peak will come after

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/sdQcElJ.gif

I guess the question we should start asking is how long will the EWRC take to complete?

I worry not enough time. 28-30 hours is plenty of time to complete in this environment

Shear should hopefully come to the rescue and disrupt the EWRC, causing Ian to weaken before landfall late tomorrow. Unless Ian is now too far south for the shear to impact it.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1574844205993705474

[eastcoastFL]

Still creepin up the right side of the cone

[TallyTracker]

Is there a weather station in the Dry Tortugas? They look like they may take a direct hit from the eye in the next few hours.

[Buck]

Every year the overabundance of EWRC posts.....

But regardless of if Ian is about to undergo one or not, let's remember this doesn't always amount to much if any weakening. Remember both Irma and Maria? Albeit both were more powerful at the time, but they didn't budge in intensity. All I'm trying to say is 1. Don't count on EWRCs happening every five seconds (like some of you seem to post like), 2. Don't count on them having the same impact on the storm each time (in either direction).

[eastcoastFL]

Future radar from our local news affiliate looks like we are in for a good soaking from a training band along coastal Palm Beach County later this afternoon/evening

https://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

Looks like from about 8pm on it’s going to be pretty nasty

[wx98]

Looking at radar, Ian is currently 280 miles SSW (almost due south) of Tampa and 205 miles SW of Fort Myers. For this to make it to Tampa (or even Bradenton/Sarasota), it would need to track nearly due north. That window is closing by the minute. Eyes should now turn to the stretch from Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda (Charley's landfall point) southward to Naples/Everglades City. This appears to be the likely landfall range given both current heading and coastline shape. Not out of the question it makes it as far north as Bradenton/Sarasota, but it needs to be making a due north turn now.

[kronotsky]

Radar is not a good tool to diagnose an EWRC. No sign as of yet of an outer eyewall on microwave imagery, or a double-wind maximum measured at a uniform level. Perhaps one will start soon, but there is no -- zero -- evidence of one.

[dukeblue219]

Next Recon isn't until this evening. However, we do have radar velocities available.

Darn, they’ll probably miss Ian’s peak since an EWRC is getting ready to start.

I have a bad feeling that the peak will come after

Could just end up as one of those broad circulations with a very low minimum pressure but a mild gradient. Cat2 winds, just over a much larger area.

But who knows.

[underthwx]

Is there a weather station in the Dry Tortugas? They look like they may take a direct hit from the eye in the next few hours.

Station DRYF1 - Dry Tortugas, FL.....I found this on google...its a buoy?.....Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
C-MAN Station
MARS payload
24.638 N 82.862 W (24°38'18" N 82°51'42" W)

Site elevation: 0 m above mean sea level
Air temp height: 5.2 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 5.7 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: 4.5 m above mean sea level
Station DRYF1 failed on September 21, 2005. It has been replaced with a station installed nearby at Pulaski shoal light......hope that helps(its found on the National Data Buoy Center site)