ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[darc87]

Some much great information here. Anyone have a projection as to how strong the storm will be when and if it reaches the center of the State? More specifically Sebring?

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[StormPyrate]

Saved Loop

https://i.imgur.com/nnfajxE.gif

What resource is this?

[Iceresistance]

The moat on the Northern side of the Eyewall on the radar is gone, it's likely another dry slot.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Key-West-Radar.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess the question we should start asking is how long will the EWRC take to complete?

I worry not enough time. 28-30 hours is plenty of time to complete in this environment

Shear should hopefully come to the rescue and disrupt the EWRC, causing Ian to weaken before landfall late tomorrow. Unless Ian is now too far south for the shear to impact it.

If the EWRC is indeed starting real soon, I think the EWRC will have finished long before shear gets into the picture, which is why the national hurricane center says that it still has 24 hours to intensify

[tolakram]

Saved Loop

https://i.imgur.com/nnfajxE.gif

What resource is this?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[jfk08c]

Radar is not a good tool to diagnose an EWRC. No sign as of yet of an outer eyewall on microwave imagery, or a double-wind maximum measured at a uniform level. Perhaps one will start soon, but there is no -- zero -- evidence of one.

Do you have a real time microwave imagery link available?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Category5Kaiju]

I worry not enough time. 28-30 hours is plenty of time to complete in this environment

Shear should hopefully come to the rescue and disrupt the EWRC, causing Ian to weaken before landfall late tomorrow. Unless Ian is now too far south for the shear to impact it.

I think the EWRC will have finished long before shear gets into the picture, which is why the national hurricane center says that it still has 24 hours to intensify

Also, haven't certain storms in the past completed EWRCs within mere hours?

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1574850860059746304




(I've posted updates for other areas too, will again when new information comes in)

[underthwx]

The moat on the Northern side of the Eyewall on the radar is gone, it's likely another dry slot.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Key-West-Radar.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Key-West-Radar.gif

What's a moat?

[FLpanhandle91]

Every year the overabundance of EWRC posts.....

But regardless of if Ian is about to undergo one or not, let's remember this doesn't always amount to much if any weakening. Remember both Irma and Maria? Albeit both were more powerful at the time, but they didn't budge in intensity. All I'm trying to say is 1. Don't count on EWRCs happening every five seconds (like some of you seem to post like), 2. Don't count on them having the same impact on the storm each time (in either direction).

The fact of the matter is that evidence pointed to an EWRC happening hours ago. It appears to be happening. The general rule is that they generally decrease windspeed and cause a storm to temporarily weaken while expanding windfield. Are there exceptions? Sure!

There was ZERO mention of EWRC in this thread until it started happening and was evidenced via recon and radar data.This is what discussion threads are for. People try to forecast or deduce what is occurring in a storm and that's what just happened.

[galaxy401]

The moat on the Northern side of the Eyewall on the radar is gone, it's likely another dry slot.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Key-West-Radar.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Key-West-Radar.gif

What's a moat?

It's an area of no rain just outside the inner eyewall. It's an indication that there is an EWRC with the inner eyewall being surrounded by the outer eyewall.

[Steve H.]

I had a neighbor in satellite beach (brevard county) say this won’t be much. I beg to differ. This storm is bigger than Charlie, and the affects will be more widespread. Not looking forward to what’s ahead.

[wx98]

Is there a weather station in the Dry Tortugas? They look like they may take a direct hit from the eye in the next few hours.

Likely going well west of there by looking at radar.

EDIT: I believe I was looking at the wrong place. It will be close as TallyTracker said.

[Iceresistance]

The amount of Lightning in the eyewall surged because of another intense burst of EVT (Eyewall Vertical Tower).

[kronotsky]

Every year the overabundance of EWRC posts.....

But regardless of if Ian is about to undergo one or not, let's remember this doesn't always amount to much if any weakening. Remember both Irma and Maria? Albeit both were more powerful at the time, but they didn't budge in intensity. All I'm trying to say is 1. Don't count on EWRCs happening every five seconds (like some of you seem to post like), 2. Don't count on them having the same impact on the storm each time (in either direction).

The fact of the matter is that evidence pointed to an EWRC happening hours ago. It appears to be happening. The general rule is that they generally decrease windspeed and cause a storm to temporarily weaken while expanding windfield. Are there exceptions? Sure!

There was ZERO mention of EWRC in this thread until it started happening and was evidenced via recon and radar data.This is what discussion threads are for. People try to forecast or deduce what is occurring in a storm and that's what just happened.

All "evidence" so far has come from radar, not recon. You can't use radar to identify an EWRC. Radar imagery will always show clearly defined outer bands whether or not the storm is undergoing an EWRC, and cannot be used to identify secondary wind maxima because it measures a tilted cross section of the storm.

[wx98]

Every year the overabundance of EWRC posts.....

But regardless of if Ian is about to undergo one or not, let's remember this doesn't always amount to much if any weakening. Remember both Irma and Maria? Albeit both were more powerful at the time, but they didn't budge in intensity. All I'm trying to say is 1. Don't count on EWRCs happening every five seconds (like some of you seem to post like), 2. Don't count on them having the same impact on the storm each time (in either direction).

Now TWC is broadcasting EWRC on television

[Hammy]

Saved Loop

https://i.imgur.com/nnfajxE.gif

What resource is this?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

I think it's here--the full state one appears to have the short range radars on

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/

[underthwx]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

56 mph sustained wind in Havana, seems like a good example of how far TS force winds are extending from Ians center, not sure how far the center of Ian is from Havana.

[ColdMiser123]

Quite a lot of lightning in the eyewall once again.