skyline385 wrote:LarryWx wrote:jlauderdal wrote:The model has done well the last few days sniffing out this east trend, could have the best handle on the steering flow.
This is the key. For THIS storm rather than for all storms, the UKMET has been the best by a good margin. In general, it has done poorly in many cases just as has been the case for other models. But it has been stellar for Ian. For the last 11 runs dating back to the 0Z of Sunday, it has been south of Tampa. No other model has been close to doing that. The other models have been playing catchup. The UKMET has been ahead of these others for nearly 3 days!
You can see the current model verification at
https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/t ... /al092022/
GFS has been the best upto 48 hours followed by (weirdly enough) CMC with UKMET in second for 72 & 96 hours. Think folks are just noticing the UKMET more because it was always east biased and the storm is trending east now.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/943cf1ceb85b7ab6ef34a83d7770bc7b.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Where the GFS did well was after Ian formed in staying in a low latitude in the central Caribbean and not tracking near Jamaica and over or east of Grand Cayman like the Euro initially had it. But the GFS did horrible with how deep the trough actually dug, so it was way off in the GOM in the longer range.
Also the GFS was too aggressive initially in developing Ian too soon.
Icon was the first one to sniff development in the central Caribbean when the TW was well east of the Windward Islands.