ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

Didn't know there's an "ERC onset tool"
 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1574863725667966978

[Blown Away]

Where can I find the eye diameter?

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Jq1016G/D0-A15677-A983-499-F-9113-7430-FE566-B54.png [/url]

Cool! Amazing no hurricane warning for KW. That’s confidence!

[caneseddy]

https://i.postimg.cc/qBsNV8GD/C38-BAA1-A-DFFF-49-BC-9-E4-B-CB0-C0-BB9291-A.jpg

What are those arrows pointing too? That isnt the forecast track

I think he’s trying to show wide the windfield is right now

[caneman]

https://i.postimg.cc/qBsNV8GD/C38-BAA1-A-DFFF-49-BC-9-E4-B-CB0-C0-BB9291-A.jpg

Disagree, it points more towards Ft Myers if not Port Charlotte, not Naples.

Exactly!! NHC has it going to Port Charlotte. No where near those forecast points. And IF GFS and others are right, it could really slow down and ride up the West coast. Nhc talks about this possibility

[wx98]

Should be getting a center pass from the NOAA plane in about 45 minutes or so.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/qBsNV8GD/C38-BAA1-A-DFFF-49-BC-9-E4-B-CB0-C0-BB9291-A.jpg

What are those arrows pointing too? That isnt the forecast track

It’s not the forecast track obviously was just showing the windfield that is likely to get larger.

[THC_Scientist]

https://i.postimg.cc/qBsNV8GD/C38-BAA1-A-DFFF-49-BC-9-E4-B-CB0-C0-BB9291-A.jpg

What are those arrows pointing too? That isnt the forecast track

It’s not the forecast track obviously was just showing the windfield that is likely to get larger.

Could very well be the forecast track the way things have shifted east.

[dpep4]

So the NHC has continued today's track shift east (which moves the center hit south), the latest move is from north of Venice to Englewood (west of Port Charlotte).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

[Iceresistance]

Another Recon plane on the way, AF306 from Biloxi, Mississippi

[dspguy]

Just a general question about the various types of graphics available under "Lower Dynamics" on sites like Tropical Tidbits.

I see 10m wind height and 850mb wind height. A quick google search says that 850mb wind height is roughly the wind at 5000 feet. As a human that happens to live closer to 33ft (10m) as opposed to 5000 feet, when I look at those two maps and it shows wind speeds, it seems that the wind speeds for 10m height drop off really quickly after landfall. Is that actually right? I suppose the wind speeds at 5000 feet might be 80+ mph, but at ground level, is it really that much lower?

No, I'm not asking this in order to make a decision to evacuate or not (I'm not in FL). I suppose it is more idle curiosity. I've had some hurricanes skirt my area before. I'm about 25 miles inland in SC and curious what sort of wind someone would actually see at ground level from a (for example) Cat 1 coming onshore. Given what these maps are showing in Florida for Ian, it makes me wonder what sort of wind speeds someone in the middle of the state along the path would actual see at ground level.

[Welwood470]

$$
Forecaster Papin[/div][/b][/quote]

56 mph sustained wind in Havana, seems like a good example of how far TS force winds are extending from Ians center, not sure how far the center of Ian is from Havana.[/quote]

79.42 miles with 5pm NHC position.(24N 83.2W)

[GCANE]

Didn't know there's an "ERC onset tool"
https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1574863725667966978?s=20&t=OJpn86kttjXdAIBnAHam-g

Measuring relative humidity in the eye is a good method to indicate a pending EWRC

[TheHurricaneGod]

TS warnings now for the SE FL metros.

[wx98]

Just a general question about the various types of graphics available under "Lower Dynamics" on sites like Tropical Tidbits.

I see 10m wind height and 850mb wind height. A quick google search says that 850mb wind height is roughly the wind at 5000 feet. As a human that happens to live closer to 33ft (10m) as opposed to 5000 feet, when I look at those two maps and it shows wind speeds, it seems that the wind speeds for 10m height drop off really quickly after landfall. Is that actually right? I suppose the wind speeds at 5000 feet might be 80+ mph, but at ground level, is it really that much lower?

No, I'm not asking this in order to make a decision to evacuate or not (I'm not in FL). I suppose it is more idle curiosity. I've had some hurricanes skirt my area before. I'm about 25 miles inland in SC and curious what sort of wind someone would actually see at ground level from a (for example) Cat 1 coming onshore. Given what these maps are showing in Florida for Ian, it makes me wonder what sort of wind speeds someone in the middle of the state along the path would actual see at ground level.

Surface winds usually drop really quickly due to frictional effects even just a few miles inland.

[Teban54]

Outer eyewall really shows up on IR now.

[GCANE]

5:25 ET: OBSERVED TORNADO crossing into SE Collier County, Florida.

[TexasBreeze]

The Dry Tortugas has a lighthouse on the western most island and an old fort and visitor center on another island just to the east. Not sure about any meteorological instruments though.

[GCANE]

If you live in Trail City, Florida, it’s time to take cover! Likely a strong tornado on the ground from the outer bands of Hurricane Ian.

[aspen]

I hope that EWRC falls apart and weakens Ian for good. It’ll further expand Ian’s wind field regardless if it completes or not, but a large Cat 1/2 is much better scenario than a large, rapidly intensifying Cat 3/4.

[tolakram]

For all us wobble watchers.