ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9290
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Warning in effect for Orlando
8 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:42 pm
- Location: Niceville, FL
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
wx98 wrote:Surface winds usually drop really quickly due to frictional effects even just a few miles inland.
Though note that swampy areas like you get with the Everglades or coastal Louisiana have less friction than dry land. IIRC, Wilma might have slightly increased wind speed as she crossed the Florida peninsula at the Everglades.
2 likes
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6108
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Inner eyewall degrading at a good clip on radar, only the northern half still seems to be convectively active
3 likes
- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Hurricane Warning in effect for Orlando
I’m a little surprised they didn’t move those to the east coast
4 likes
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
That 4000 CAPE Ridge SE of the Keys is getting bigger. Feeding directly into the core.
4 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:42 pm
- Location: Niceville, FL
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Another Governor’s press conference. I think he said they’re getting 30K utility workers staged for recovery efforts. Sadly, I think they’re all going to be much needed.
4 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 207
- Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:59 pm
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Significant Tornado Parameter also increasing and coverage area widening.
Looks like will come onshore tonight.
Not good having nocturnal tornadoes
Looks like will come onshore tonight.
Not good having nocturnal tornadoes
6 likes
- orion
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 165
- Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 5:44 pm
- Location: Indian Harbour Beach, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
dspguy wrote:Just a general question about the various types of graphics available under "Lower Dynamics" on sites like Tropical Tidbits.
I see 10m wind height and 850mb wind height. A quick google search says that 850mb wind height is roughly the wind at 5000 feet. As a human that happens to live closer to 33ft (10m) as opposed to 5000 feet, when I look at those two maps and it shows wind speeds, it seems that the wind speeds for 10m height drop off really quickly after landfall. Is that actually right? I suppose the wind speeds at 5000 feet might be 80+ mph, but at ground level, is it really that much lower?
No, I'm not asking this in order to make a decision to evacuate or not (I'm not in FL). I suppose it is more idle curiosity. I've had some hurricanes skirt my area before. I'm about 25 miles inland in SC and curious what sort of wind someone would actually see at ground level from a (for example) Cat 1 coming onshore. Given what these maps are showing in Florida for Ian, it makes me wonder what sort of wind speeds someone in the middle of the state along the path would actual see at ground level.
The standard height for wind speed is 10m above the ground. When you hear the NWS or NHC talking about surface winds, this is the level they are referring to (Similarly the standard height above the ground for temperature is 2m). When we get above the surface, we look at the winds not at certain heights above the ground, but at certain pressure levels. In the example you gave, the winds would be measured at the height where the pressure is 850mb. Going higher up, the 500mb level is about the level where half atmosphere is above and half below it. These pressure levels are 3D surfaces that have highs and lows, but have average heights around 1500m (5000 ft) for 850mb and 5500m (18,000 ft) for 500 mb.
In the absence of friction, the winds are geostrophic - parallel to the height contours - at levels around 500mb and higher... as you get lower you start feeling the effects of friction which disrupts the balance of the pressure gradient force and coriolis. Friction slows the wind speeds considerably and the imbalance in the forces causes the direction of the wind to turn toward the low pressure area, which, although I've simplified it a bit, leads to the cyclonic circulation around the low pressure center of the hurricane.
12 likes
~Jeff
@meteoJeff
Meteorologist/Sr Technical Advisor at US Air Force
Patrick Space Force Base, FL
24th Analysis Squadron/Environmental Modeling and Simulation (EMS)
PhD in Meteorology, Florida Institute of Technology 2018
@meteoJeff
Meteorologist/Sr Technical Advisor at US Air Force
Patrick Space Force Base, FL
24th Analysis Squadron/Environmental Modeling and Simulation (EMS)
PhD in Meteorology, Florida Institute of Technology 2018
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
You know that you are in a true tropical hurricane in Key West when is raining with 84 degrees and a dewpoint of 79 degrees.
It feels that way here also in Orlando this afternoon.
Sep 27, 5:35 pm 84 79 84 96 ESE 41G54 6.00 Lt rain
It feels that way here also in Orlando this afternoon.
Sep 27, 5:35 pm 84 79 84 96 ESE 41G54 6.00 Lt rain
5 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7185
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: RE: Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
They held us out to the very end, winds have been increasing this afternoon.TheHurricaneGod wrote:TS warnings now for the SE FL metros.
4 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 9162
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Hurricane Warning in effect for Orlando
Yeah I saw it coming, if Ian keeps moving faster than though and we end up in the NW quadrant which models are persistent will become the strongest side of Ian after making landfall we will indeed see hurricane force winds.
2 likes
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:You know that you are in a true tropical hurricane in Key West when is raining with 84 degrees and a dewpoint of 79 degrees.
It feels that way here also in Orlando this afternoon.
Sep 27, 5:35 pm 84 79 84 96 ESE 41G54 6.00 Lt rain
Yeah there's a certain feeling for sure.
2 likes
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3900
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm under a tropical storm warning in Martin but 17 miles from my house in Okeechobee there's a hurricane warning. I hope Ian knows that.
7 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 5058
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Definitely looks a lot more like an ERC now. Interested to see what the planes find. Good luck and stay safe to everyone in the path of this thing
3 likes
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9290
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
3 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4457/Tuw3Jm.gif
Ian is now running fairly much parallel to the SW shear, a sure bet that it will make landfall as a MH, hopefully not Cat 4.
3 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 151
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:19 pm
- Location: Fort Lauderdale
Re: RE: Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:They held us out to the very end, winds have been increasing this afternoon.TheHurricaneGod wrote:TS warnings now for the SE FL metros.
We should probably end up about 110 miles east of the center, and if we get a complete ERC, we could be seeing very windy conditions tomorrow.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests