ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Rail Dawg
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4141 Postby Rail Dawg » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:56 pm

Ok this is my 17th storm but the first one where I’m many miles away from the action out here in Northern Nevada.

However, I can tell you that if I was chasing this storm I would be 100% committed to a tall parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. New chasers will want to go to the beaches. Chase the million likes by catching the stadium effect. They do not realize the surge may rise behind them blocking their only exit. I’ve almost been trapped many times.

Hence I commit to the garage regardless of what the eye does. It’s a potential death sentence otherwise.

Been through this so many times. So much adventure. But Ian is going to hammer Florida very hard and things will be miserable for weeks.

Brace for impact.

Chuck
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4142 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:56 pm

jcera wrote:Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol :lol:


Now that might just make a few regret not evacuating
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4143 Postby skillz305 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:59 pm

Supposed to have strong bands coming into the treasure coast from the south from midnight-4am :oops:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4144 Postby jdray » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:00 pm

chaser1 wrote:
jcera wrote:Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol :lol:


Now that might just make a few regret not evacuating



I'm not sure one could successfully evacuate when it's clearly a CAT8 storm coming through. :lol:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4145 Postby LandoWill » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:02 pm

Looks like by thursday afternoon here in land o lakes, we'll be able to start putting out our Halloween stuff. Funny my pool guy messaged me yesterday saying how their storm cleanup is $95 an hour. Hope he wasn't anticipating that extra income from this event.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4146 Postby kerouactivist » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:02 pm

Am I reading the info wrong or did key west just set a record with the observed water levels?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4147 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:02 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:Ok this is my 17th storm but the first one where I’m many miles away from the action out here in Northern Nevada.

However, I can tell you that if I was chasing this storm I would be 100% committed to a tall parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. New chasers will want to go to the beaches. Chase the million likes by catching the stadium effect. They do not realize the surge may rise behind them blocking their only exit. I’ve almost been trapped many times.

Hence I commit to the garage regardless of what the eye does. It’s a potential death sentence otherwise.

Been through this so many times. So much adventure. But Ian is going to hammer Florida very hard and things will be miserable for weeks.

Brace for impact.

Chuck


In my parallel Universe, nothing will excite me more then coming across a three story parking garage somewhere between Kendall Drive and Homestead.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4148 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:04 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...12 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A special advisory will be released by 1230 AM EDT (0430 UTC) to
issue a Storm Surge Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big
Pine Key westward to Key West. There will be no changes to the
track or intensity forecast.

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h). An
elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a
sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4149 Postby PandaCitrus » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:05 pm

May not get to Cat 8 but high end Cat 4 or even a 5 if these cold cloud tops wrap around at the end of this eyewall replacement cycle. The last half hour has been very impressive on the IR. Very scary situation for Ft. Myers metro right now. I don't think most know what is coming for them tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4150 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:05 pm

kerouactivist wrote:Am I reading the info wrong or did key west just set a record with the observed water levels?


it was close earlier (3rd highest since 1913) and high tide was rolling in around 11:30

the southern most cam is crazy right now

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4151 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:05 pm

jdray wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
jcera wrote:Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol :lol:


Now that might just make a few regret not evacuating



I'm not sure one could successfully evacuate when it's clearly a CAT8 storm coming through. :lol:


Chin down and keep the wind to your back
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4152 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:05 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2022 Time : 032020 UTC
Lat : 24:58:47 N Lon : 82:51:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 933mb / 125kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Raw Ts are ticking back up.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4153 Postby St0rmTh0r » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:06 pm

Landy wrote:Most of my family is in the Cape Coral / Fort Myers area. Praying for a miracle right now. :(

theyll be ok
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4154 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:07 pm

Man that latest dropsonde in the sw quad is bizarre. 128kt at 890mb, but only 65kt at 966mb (surface). I suspect this latest burst will mix those winds down
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4155 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:08 pm

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters just shared an incredible four-minute video of the eye penetration earlier on the 27th. The views of the stadium effect together with the violent ocean surface (starting at minute 3:30) are surreal:

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/858819/hurricane-ian
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4156 Postby Rail Dawg » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:09 pm

By the way my hat is off as always to all of you contributing in a useful way to this forum. I’m still learning and the new technology is incredible. I had to hand-draw charts and then decide where the storm was going.

Also much respect to the old-timers on here with whom I have been able to share many adventures. They were also many times the key to a successful chase.

Moderators and markalot… ya’ll rock.

Chuck
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4157 Postby kerouactivist » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:09 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
kerouactivist wrote:Am I reading the info wrong or did key west just set a record with the observed water levels?


it was close earlier (3rd highest since 1913) and high tide was rolling in around 11:30

the southern most cam is crazy right now

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/



Am I looking at the wrong data then?

UTC

2022/09/28 01:18 1.794 3.9 -
2022/09/28 01:24 1.825 3.94 -
2022/09/28 01:30 1.855 3.9 -
2022/09/28 01:36 1.884 3.96 -
2022/09/28 01:42 1.912 3.98 -
2022/09/28 01:48 1.939 3.98 -
2022/09/28 01:54 1.966 3.95 -
2022/09/28 02:00 1.991 3.99 -
2022/09/28 02:06 2.014 4.02 -
2022/09/28 02:12 2.037 4.01 -
2022/09/28 02:18 2.058 4.04 -
2022/09/28 02:24 2.078 4.13 -
2022/09/28 02:30 2.097 4.14 -
2022/09/28 02:36 2.114 4.19 -
2022/09/28 02:42 2.129 4.18 -
2022/09/28 02:48 2.143 4.22 -
2022/09/28 02:54 2.156 4.25 -
2022/09/28 03:00 2.166 4.17 -
2022/09/28 03:06 2.175 4.22 -
2022/09/28 03:12 2.183 4.19 -
2022/09/28 03:18 2.188 4.27 -
2022/09/28 03:24 2.192 4.18 -
2022/09/28 03:30 2.193 4.14 -
2022/09/28 03:36 2.193 4.09 -
2022/09/28 03:42 2.191 4.04 -
2022/09/28 03:48 2.187 4.02 -
2022/09/28 03:54 2.18 4
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4158 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:10 pm

VDM shows eyewall was still open to the E, which is also supported by radar and IR at that time. However, radar suggests it might have closed right after that center pass.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4159 Postby Rail Dawg » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:12 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:Ok this is my 17th storm but the first one where I’m many miles away from the action out here in Northern Nevada.

However, I can tell you that if I was chasing this storm I would be 100% committed to a tall parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. New chasers will want to go to the beaches. Chase the million likes by catching the stadium effect. They do not realize the surge may rise behind them blocking their only exit. I’ve almost been trapped many times.

Hence I commit to the garage regardless of what the eye does. It’s a potential death sentence otherwise.

Been through this so many times. So much adventure. But Ian is going to hammer Florida very hard and things will be miserable for weeks.

Brace for impact.

Chuck


In my parallel Universe, nothing will excite me more then coming across a three story parking garage somewhere between Kendall Drive and Homestead.



And that right there was the challenge of chasing. If I couldn’t get my truck up 30 feet above the ocean I kept on moving until I could.

Well in advance of the surge.

Chuck
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4160 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:13 pm

The east southeast section of the eyewall has looked underwhelming for the last few hours compared to the rest of the eyewall.
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