ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Is she losing MB and KT's? Or neutral/strengthening?

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Special Advisory has been released to issue a Storm Surge
Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key to Key West.
The storm surge inundation amounts for the area have been increased
to 3 to 5 ft.

No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast and the Lower Florida Keys where a storm surge warning is
in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida,
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected
across central Florida.

[MetroMike]

The last couple frames of the radar has some distinct northerly headings.

[caneman]

The last couple frames of the radar has some distinct northerly headings.

Exactly what it looks like to me too. Have to watch it that NW quad is nasty

[DestinHurricane]

Eastern Eyewall came alive in like 1 radar frame

I'm gonna have to give this storm the classic SFLCane emoji:

[cheezyWXguy]

Eyewall is just about closed off on the east side, velocities exceeding the scale (>142mph) in the S quad (black area on lower panel). Reminder, this is aloft not surface

[MarioProtVI]

Seeing some attempts of dry air trying to get into the core on radar but it seems like Ian is fighting it off. However I think it’s recent struggling and it’s rising pressure will cap the peak intensity to 115-120 kt once the eye clears out more tomorrow.

[wx98]

Looks like recon is going home.

[ElectricStorm]

Another L for recon, that's unfortunate.

Looks like the next one doesn't take off for a couple more hours

[dpep4]

According to TWC this is Key West's 3rd highest storm surge recorded, interesting that they say it is less than 2.5 feet. I'm guessing that's because Key West is just a tiny spec in the ocean versus a very long continental coastline with a shelf? As in not much for the water to pile up against?

I don't know how accurate it is, but TWC's modeled future radar run shows the eye making landfall late morning.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon has ascended and is on the way home. Hopefully we can get another mission in there in the peak over the next 8 hours or so.

[ElectricStorm]

Confirmed tornado with CC drop well south of Belle Glade

[eastcoastFL]

The last couple frames of the radar has some distinct northerly headings.

I def saw a wobble left a bit

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...1 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN PRODUCING STORM SURGE FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...

A University of South Florida COMPS buoy located west of Ian's
center recently reported a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and
a gust to 89 mph (144 km/h). An elevated WeatherFlow station at
Smith Shoal Light reported a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h)
with a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h).

The National Ocean Service tide gauge at Key West measured a peak
water level of about 2.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water during the
past couple of hours.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

[eastcoastFL]

Rough day at the office for recon flights

[ElectricStorm]

That band on the S and W side is an absolute unit

I really hope that's not able to wrap all the way around...

[eastcoastFL]

Eye was looking a little ragged for a minute but it’s looking like it sorted that out.

[CrazyC83]

I'd raise the intensity to 110 kt based on the radar velocities given the lack of aircraft data.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574989854458331136

[CrazyC83]

Rough day at the office for recon flights

Although pure speculation, I wonder if it sustained a lightning strike? I know it abruptly turned around before lifting. It was in the outer bands at the time.