ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Raw T up to 7.1 now

So is the Adjusted ADT at 7.1

[Owasso]

[aspen]

Never did I expect to wake up to a borderline Cat 5. This’ll likely be upgraded to a 5 in just a few hours. I’m just praying everyone in Ian’s path has evacuated or prepared themselves for what’s to come.

[Teban54]

Was the SFMR recalibration already done and put in practice this year? That should give more credence to the 138 kt SFMR readings than the past few storms like Iota and Sam.

[kevin]

Recon now went to the NE quadrant, which is a bit weaker with 'only' 139 kt FL winds. If there are cat 5 winds they can now be found in the western half of the storm.

[GCANE]

Recon reported 80mm/hr rain rate 2 hrs ago.
4000 CAPE ridge has moved significantly closer to the core.
Ian keeps pushing back the PV streamer to its west.

I don't see any inhibiting factors for this not to be a Cat 5 at landfall.

[Fancy1001]

Let’s have a small unofficial poll, do you think Ian will become a category five initially, or do you think it will become one in the postseason analysis

[ColdMiser123]

Was the SFMR recalibration already done and put in practice this year? That should give more credence to the 138 kt SFMR readings than the past few storms like Iota and Sam.

Iota also never had FL winds even close to 160 kt, this is another step above where that storm was.

[wx98]

This is an interesting case where the west side is much stronger than the east side. If it wraps that deep convection all the way around…. hold your hat.

[GCANE]

Two eyewall drops at 140 knts

[Teban54]

Recon now went to the NE quadrant, which is a bit weaker with 'only' 139 kt FL winds. If there are cat 5 winds they can now be found in the western half of the storm.

The E eyewall has been the weakest for a few hours, so that's expected.

However, looks like those -80C hot towers are trying to wrap around:

[115MphAgatha]

Was the SFMR recalibration already done and put in practice this year? That should give more credence to the 138 kt SFMR readings than the past few storms like Iota and Sam.

Matthew hasn't been given a downgrade yet, soooooo.......

[kevin]

Let’s have a small unofficial poll, do you think Ian will become a category five initially, or do you think it will become one in the postseason analysis

I also said yes to Sam (and Eta if recon didn't have their issues back then) so I might be a bit biased, but honestly I think this is a better case for a cat 5 than any of those previous borderline cases. So yes, I think it'll become a cat 5 very soon (not in post-season).

[InfernoFlameCat]

What did I just wake up to!!!!!!!

[Bocadude85]

Looking at radar it looks like it has been stationary last 30 minutes.

Agreed, I’ve been watching the radar and there appears to be very little motion, perhaps the start of the more easterly turn…

[Do_For_Love]

So, it's probably going to hit as a Category 5 it sounds like. I mean this was going to be devastating no matter what, but...wow, didn't see that coming.

[Iceresistance]

Two eyewall drops at 140 knts

There are 150-160 knots way up there, which is suggesting that they could mix down to the surface.

[NDG]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

[Teban54]

So the NW quadrant is the the strongest, beautiful job by the Euro persistent for days that it was going to be the strongest at landfall.

Also beautiful job by the hurricane models showing it will restrengthen into the 930s after the EWRC (although Ian is likely not done yet).

[NDG]

Two eyewall drops at 140 knts

They never go by the winds measured at the surface by the dropsondes.