ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/1024640404433408050/20220928_191500.jpg

What is it? I can't see it

Insane Eyewall lightning

I just noticed it from WeatherNerds, this is just insane.

[caneman]

Euro did a really good job with Ian all things considered. Much better than the GFS.

Yep, and Tampa peeps better pay attention!!! The 6z has it passing thru Tampa now

The rule from back in the days of hurricane tracking maps still holds true - never relax your guard until the storm has passed your latitude, then do so with caution - sometimes they make loops.

I'm well aware of the rule as are other hurricane junkies but most people only listen to updates via the news and many in the news were touting that it was staying pretty well east of us.

[GCANE]

Doesn't look like any EWRC in the near future.

Relative Humidity Eye Drop Measurements at 850mb:
10:19Z: 93%
10:36Z: 96%

[Weatherboy1]

Sure looks to me like Ian is going to landfall in the Sanibel Island/Ft. Myers area unless something dramatic changes in path over the next few hours

[caneman]

Sure looks to me like Ian is going to landfall in the Sanibel Island/Ft. Myers area unless something dramatic changes in path over the next few hours

Looks more like Englewood to Sarasota to me and then the Euro cuts it up thru Tampa

[RevanTheJedi96]

Yep, and Tampa peeps better pay attention!!! The 6z has it passing thru Tampa now

The rule from back in the days of hurricane tracking maps still holds true - never relax your guard until the storm has passed your latitude, then do so with caution - sometimes they make loops.

I'm well aware of the rule as are other hurricane junkies but most people only listen to updates via the news and many in the news were touting that it was staying pretty well east of us.

It doesn't help that the Weather Channel is so godawful now. People have to be more educated about these types of storms that are worse case scenario because they don't appear to be going away anytime soon.

[Zonacane]

Eye has contracted to 20 nm. That core is tight and cranking

[Chemmers]

unfortunately unlike Michael. ian is likely to hit an highly built up many area with alot off house very close to the sea

i just hope everyone got out safe

[Fancy1001]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/1024640404433408050/20220928_191500.jpg

What is this figure? I’m unfamiliar…

I think that’s supposed to be lightning

[Bocadude85]

Sure looks to me like Ian is going to landfall in the Sanibel Island/Ft. Myers area unless something dramatic changes in path over the next few hours

Looks more like Englewood to Sarasota to me and then the Euro cuts it up thru Tampa

The 9/28 06z Euro hasn’t been released yet, you are looking at the 9/27 6z from yesterday

[GCANE]

Looks to be right on the money with forecast track.
Landfall: Placida, Fl

[InfernoFlameCat]

First visible revealed an ugly behemoth of a storm.
Looks like Wilma when Wilma made landfall in Florida.

[jconsor]

Ian's western eyewall appears to be nearly as strong as the eastern eyewall! Here are Andy and my explanations for why this may be the case. Hurricanes Michael and Delta saw a similar pattern.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575080636934926338




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575084782106836992

[wx98]

Sure looks to me like Ian is going to landfall in the Sanibel Island/Ft. Myers area unless something dramatic changes in path over the next few hours

I’m thinking just a little north of there, and Cape Coral/Ft. Myers will get the onshore flow.

[caneman]

The rule from back in the days of hurricane tracking maps still holds true - never relax your guard until the storm has passed your latitude, then do so with caution - sometimes they make loops.

I'm well aware of the rule as are other hurricane junkies but most people only listen to updates via the news and many in the news were touting that it was staying pretty well east of us.

It doesn't help that the Weather Channel is so godawful now. People have to be more educated about these types of storms that are worse case scenario because they don't appear to be going away anytime soon.

I and a couple of others noticed that's it's been moving mostly North since roughly midnight last night. We are seeing a powerful Hurricane create its own atmosphere to some extent. When you watch the water vapor loop you can see it pushung back agaisnt the trough. Im sure its happened before but its the first time ive looked for it and actually saw it in play.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1575076243531526144

[caneman]

Sure looks to me like Ian is going to landfall in the Sanibel Island/Ft. Myers area unless something dramatic changes in path over the next few hours

Looks more like Englewood to Sarasota to me and then the Euro cuts it up thru Tampa

The 9/28 06z Euro hasn’t been released yet, you are looking at the 9/27 6z from yesterday

Are you sure. I saw Tolakram post it. Will go check. It still looks to be west of Port Charlotte and been traveling North overnight. Edit: it was the 0z. Doesn't change the fluid dynamics though

[Stormgodess]

 https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1575073815004061697

[MississippiWx]

Wow. Satellite alone would not lead you to believe this is bordering on Cat. 5. Messy looking eye on satellite, but wow at the winds! What a beast. Hoping for the best for you guys in Florida.

[Vdogg]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/1024640404433408050/20220928_191500.jpg

What is this figure? I’m unfamiliar…

Eyewall lightning, sign of intensification.