ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Keldeo1997
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4461 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:57 am

1 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4462 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:58 am

It only takes one. Remember that. I am scared for those people who chose not to evacuate.
8 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Stormgodess
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 301
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4463 Postby Stormgodess » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:58 am

Certainly not mincing words, even the typo feels panicked :eek:

 https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1575086765517537280


4 likes   

User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 498
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4464 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:04 am

Beef Stew wrote:
gailwarning wrote:
Beef Stew wrote:That eye is clearing out fast- and if it’s anything like the HWRF is suggesting, it’s going to be be quite noticeable in the next few hours.


Stop being interesting, you guys! I've gotta get some sleep! :)


Right, it really isn’t fair that these storms always seem to get their acts together on weeknights… I’m about to have to call it a night as well.

I’ll never forget Michael- stayed up for the 2 AM advisory where it got bumped up to 130 mph, and when I woke up a few hours later we had a 145 mph storm pushing 150 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 mbar lower. While that was a different situation and I don’t think Ian will pull a Michael… let’s just say going to bed on intensifying storms makes me a little nervous for what I’ll wake up to.



I shouldn’t have said it. I really shouldn’t have said it.

Been catching up on this for the past hour- absolutely floored. This is the most clear cut case of a category 5 storm we’ve seen since Dorian. I suppose the NHC is waiting to see if this is sustained for a longer period of time before pulling the trigger. Even if Ian weakens some before landfall the damage is more or less done- this is going to be a massive impact. And parts of central Florida are going to see winds that they haven’t in a long, long time.
8 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4465 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:07 am

Stay safe, everybody :bathroom:
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4466 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:09 am

Radar image is unreal now. Its such a thick and dense eyewall now. Holy ...
2 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4103
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4467 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:09 am

Remember how we kept saying how West Florida has been so lucky they haven’t really gotten hit by a major hurricane since Charley?

Ian will change that forever.
7 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

dukeblue219
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4468 Postby dukeblue219 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:09 am

USAF HH in the eye right this moment, should have some crucial data in about ten minutes...
4 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4469 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:11 am

Haven't posted here in a while, but been absolutely captivated by Ian. This is a good example of how models are the best guidance we have still in the long and medium term, but even just small shifts can change so much. Particularly interesting to see how the trough that was thought to be the guillotine for the storm, is instead aiding heavily in the impressive outflow pattern.
8 likes   

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4470 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:11 am

dukeblue219 wrote:USAF HH in the eye right this moment, should have some crucial data in about ten minutes...

Already finding 120 FL at 976 mbar. It’s likely in the low 930s by now.
4 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4471 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:12 am

Radar presentation is so good right now. I am sure they find Cat 5. Can anyone post a radar loop please?
6 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4472 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:13 am

I think the only thing that can weaken Ian at this point is upwelling do to him moving so slowly.
3 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3354
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4473 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:14 am

Image

EDITED - radar frame was not accurate.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4474 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:14 am

What’s the highest elevation on Sanibel? Can the island be completely over washed? I see that is forecast to happen to Pine Island.
1 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2362
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4475 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:15 am

I'm wishing all of you the best, be safe, get to safety....I don't know what else to say....
2 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4476 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:16 am

Any idea when metro SE is suppose to expect TS winds now? This thing stalled a little earlier than forecast.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4477 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:16 am

TallyTracker wrote:What’s the highest elevation on Sanibel? Can the island be completely over washed? I see that is forecast to happen to Pine Island.

I thought someone said 10 feet yesterday.
0 likes   

TheHurricaneGod
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 151
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:19 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4478 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:18 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Any idea when metro SE is suppose to expect TS winds now? This thing stalled a little earlier than forecast.


Not sure if there ever will be TS winds here. Ian definitely moved more north than NE overnight. The center is about 140 miles away or so it will be very close.
0 likes   

fendie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 151
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:33 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4479 Postby fendie » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:19 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Radar presentation is so good right now. I am sure they find Cat 5. Can anyone post a radar loop please?


Image

Image
Last edited by fendie on Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4480 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:19 am

New recon pass (SW quadrant to the eye): 135 kt FL winds. Almost all SFMR during the eyewall is flagged (peaked at 138 kt SFMR), highest unflagged value is 114 kt.
1 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest