ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

MSLP down to 933mb per recon. Lots of flagged SFMRs.

[bjackrian]

Is that a 933.1 mb extrap?!

[TallyTracker]

What’s the highest elevation on Sanibel? Can the island be completely over washed? I see that is forecast to happen to Pine Island.

I thought someone said 10 feet yesterday.

Then I think the whole island may get overtopped with these surge levels.

[Texas Snowman]

What’s the highest elevation on Sanibel? Can the island be completely over washed? I see that is forecast to happen to Pine Island.

Average elevation is four feet. Maximum elevation is 13-feet.

http://www.visitsanibelisland.com/facts-and-history-of-the-island.html

[ThunderForce]

This is horrifying. This whole situation reminds me a lot of Michael. Unlike Michael however, this seems to be forecast to move a lot more slowly which will only exacerbate the effects on the Peninsula's coastal communities.

I'm praying for everyone in the path of this storm.

[Kat5]

Any idea when metro SE is suppose to expect TS winds now? This thing stalled a little earlier than forecast.

Doubtful we’ll end up getting any. Charley was more windy than this.

[jdjaguar]

What’s the highest elevation on Sanibel? Can the island be completely over washed? I see that is forecast to happen to Pine Island.

I thought someone said 10 feet yesterday.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

[tolakram]

[TallyTracker]

https://i.imgur.com/5bsZG9S.gif

The eye looks like it’s tightening up even further…unreal…

[sbcc]

Hi.

I'm the guy who many forum pages ago, on Monday, took exception to a major news org calling Ian the "Storm of the Century" when it was still a Cat 2 south of the Caymans.

I apologize to the board as a whole. It certainly looks to be exactly that.

I hope my wrong streak continues with this statement as well and Ian somehow starts weakening.

I'm feeling this one in my guts. I know this area of Florida well. Family members had homes in Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, they moved north after Charley. I have other acquaintances who live north of the Rotunda on a canal near Englewood. My next door neighbors here in Michigan bought a house in Cleveland a couple of years ago. I have no idea how close it is to the Peace River. They are still up here right now, thank God.

Prayers that everyone heeded the evac warnings and got their prep done.

[StAuggy]

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

This was a slight concern based on the early model path projections. A NE landfall direction means the chance exists for a trough to help the storm rather than hinder it.

And here we are

[ThetaE]

New recon pass (SW quadrant to the eye): 135 kt FL winds. Almost all SFMR during the eyewall is flagged (peaked at 138 kt SFMR), highest unflagged value is 114 kt.

Looks like a very bumpy ride through that eyewall:

[Fancy1001]

OK why is the plane turning around this time when it was on its way to the storm

[MGC]

This is beyond worst case. A considerable length of coast is going to experience Cat-4 or possibly Cat-5 winds or gusts due to the angle Ian is approaching the coast. Massive destruction might even rival Katrina damage wise. Get out now if you can......MGC

[weeniepatrol]

Hi.

I'm the guy who many forum pages ago, on Monday, took exception to a major news org calling Ian the "Storm of the Century" when it was still a Cat 2 south of the Caymans.

I apologize to the board as a whole. It certainly looks to be exactly that.

I hope my wrong streak continues with this statement as well and Ian somehow starts weakening.

I'm feeling this one in my guts. I know this area of Florida well. Family members had homes in Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, they moved north after Charley. I have other acquaintances who live north of the Rotunda on a canal near Englewood. My next door neighbors here in Michigan bought a house in Cleveland a couple of years ago. I have no idea how close it is to the Peace River. They are still up here right now, thank God.

Prayers that everyone heeded the evac warnings and got their prep done.

Bro at the time I honestly agreed with you. This feels just like the day of Michael's landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

I just got up and I can't not believe that this thing is basically a cat 5. Unreal. Power went on and off during the night but I'd on now. Internet is out. Anyone else around the treasure coast having similar issues ?

[KWT]

Eye shape is improving again and the eyewall strengthening on the eastern side.

Kinda similar strength eyewall as Michael, maybe just a notch lower. Definitely not as impressive as Dorian's was mind you!

[LAwxrgal]

I went through Ida last year and am still recovering. I feel sick right now.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the path of this beast. Please stay safe.

[MetsIslesNoles]

I just found out that I have a friend in Englewood that didn't evacuate. Oy. I hope he and his wife end up okay.

[wx98]

NOAA plane bailed. Going home