ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm honestly flabbergasted by how many Cat 4+ storms in the Gulf have made landfall in the CONUS since 2017. Ever since then, with the exception of 2019, every year has had one of these kinds of storms, and Ian looks to continue this deadly pattern. Unlike years before then, Cat 4+ GoM storms aren't weakening before landfall, they're literally strengthening up until then. Not sure what is causing this pattern, whether it is a property of the gulf itself that has changed or if something in the Atlantic atmospheric state is causing it, but I can bet you that unless something drastic happens, it's likely that 2023, 2024, and so forth will feature at least one of these kinds of systems in their respective seasons.

It's only a matter of time before those maps depicting Harvey, Michael, Laura, Ida, and (now) Ian are going to become totally unreadable.

We went from having 0 category 3+ major hurricane landfalls in the US from 2006-2016 to so many I've lost count at this point between 2017-2022

[tropicwatch]

From radar returns, looks like Ian is getting some dry air entrained on its east and southeast side. Probably the influence of the trough. Hopefully the start of a weakening trend.

Doesn't look like it is going to make it into the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Is one of the recon trapped in the eye? Seems to be just doing circles and the other recon turned away at the same time. This could be getting dangerous with the continuous lighting in the eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/sxyDfN8.png

I was wondering that. They look like they're trying to find a break in the eyewall and don't feel comfortable getting out of the calm of the eye.

[Fancy1001]

From radar returns, looks like Ian is getting some dry air entrained on its east and southeast side. Probably the influence of the trough. Hopefully the start of a weakening trend.

Doesn't look like it is going to make it into the eyewall.

https://tropicwatch.info/dryair.gif

No matter what, the eastern to south eastern section of the eye wall seems to be the weakest with Ian. I think that might be what’s preventing it from getting a little stronger right now

[tolakram]

Altitude all over the place

[KWT]

No, I mean the entire Peninsula. The last hurricane this strong to hit FL in general was Michael in the Panhandle.

This is basically Charley's larger brother.

Ian is stronger in terms of peak, but in reality Ian and Charley in terms of max winds into SW Florida are pretty close.

Ian's overall kinetic energy is much higher than Charley. But you're right in that Charley is the closest comparison.

Even the track and timings of the strengthening is nearly identical as well, the only major difference as you rightly say is its quite alot larger of a cane than Charley, which will make its impacts almost certainly more severe.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Altitude all over the place

https://i.imgur.com/fbfk6Hv.png

AF301 looks like they're in a tough spot. They intercepted right as the NOAA plane aborted. I don't think there's any technical issues with either plane. Ian is just that strong.

[cheezyWXguy]

From radar returns, looks like Ian is getting some dry air entrained on its east and southeast side. Probably the influence of the trough. Hopefully the start of a weakening trend.

Doesn't look like it is going to make it into the eyewall.

https://tropicwatch.info/dryair.gif

The eastern eyewall has had intermittent gaps on radar since before midnight, doesn’t seem to be having much affect as it’s clearly intensifying… The structure it’s got here, where the thickest portion of the eyewall is the SW quad, is about as solid of a defense against SW shear as a storm can have

[GCANE]

I never seen a TC ingest high CAPE air into its core as well as Ian.
Its like he is on an IV drip of steroids

[stormhunter7]

Don't think I have ever seen an C-130 into the wind at 10kft at GS of 130mph! Wow.

[TallyTracker]

I'm honestly flabbergasted by how many Cat 4+ storms in the Gulf have made landfall in the CONUS since 2017. Ever since then, with the exception of 2019, every year has had one of these kinds of storms, and Ian looks to continue this deadly pattern. Unlike years before then, Cat 4+ GoM storms aren't weakening before landfall, they're literally strengthening up until then. Not sure what is causing this pattern, whether it is a property of the gulf itself that has changed or if something in the Atlantic atmospheric state is causing it, but I can bet you that unless something drastic happens, it's likely that 2023, 2024, and so forth will feature at least one of these kinds of systems in their respective seasons.

It's only a matter of time before those maps depicting Harvey, Michael, Laura, Ida, and (now) Ian are going to become totally unreadable.

We went from having 0 category 3+ major hurricane landfalls in the US from 2006-2016 to so many I've lost count at this point between 2017-2022

Historically, there seems to be years with many major hurricane strikes and then years of quiet. It’s seems we are back in the busy stretch as far as landfalls are concerned. Not sure if it’s random or if a specific cyclical weather pattern is to blame. My guess is a combination of both but that’s exactly what it is, a guess.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/1436326272104288257




Soon enough, these kinds of maps will become extremely hard to read

[SunnyThoughts]

Hope the AF hurricane hunter aircraft is ok and they make it out of that eye safely.

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/1436326272104288257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1436326272104288257%7Ctwgr%5Ec2a9fd4620b615b4b8c10e1d117ab0cb0ba26fba%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorm2k.org%2Fphpbb2%2FEmbedTweet.html1436326272104288257

Soon enough, these kinds of maps will become extremely hard to read

Wild. From one end of the American Gulf Coast to the other. Absolutely pelted.

[Stormgodess]

This is beyond worst case. A considerable length of coast is going to experience Cat-4 or possibly Cat-5 winds or gusts due to the angle Ian is approaching the coast. Massive destruction might even rival Katrina damage wise. Get out now if you can......MGC

And I'm getting an overall sense that alot people have stayed for this. And hearing landfall this afternoon, and weather already bad, may not risk trying to leave now.

[kevin]

144 kt FL in the 'weaker' east side of Ian.

[toad strangler]

Huge dry slot in south central FL. Completely void of banding. Pretty strange on the east side of a major. On the east coast I have 5.5” already but I’m sure totals are really low in this area.

[jcera]

The eye is now clearing out rapidly

[GCANE]

Now I know its really bad


 https://twitter.com/CharlesPeekWX/status/1575092961116704768

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF301 looks like it made it out. They are pros at this.