ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could be a TS with the ASCAT's low bias, can't help wondering if they've overreacted to the criticism about 'shorty' systems the last two years. Third system that should've been named this year that wasn't

https://i.imgur.com/h2tWLmX.png

I feel like they definitely have.

[Hammy]

Into my records this goes as the 12th storm of the season

[somethingfunny]

I think the NHC will write a blog in the off-season to explain their reasoning behind some of the decisions. Similar to what happened in 2020. This isn't the only system this year.

I haven't seen the 2020 blog, do you have a link?

[aspen]

I don’t get why they haven’t upgraded this yet. It’s plenty well organized and has been for at least a day.

[cycloneye]

Julia at 11 AM?

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized over the last 24 hours. A short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today as the system moves generally northward or north-northwestward
through the end of the week, remaining over the open central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news: 12z Best track at TD.

AL, 99, 2022092812, , BEST, 0, 157N, 342W, 30, 1008, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal992022.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

99L looking at what is going on miles to its west:

[Buck]

Better late than never

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 34.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[FireRat]

Deserves the name Julia, imo

[Sciencerocks]

[Ryxn]

Will this even be named? Come on! We need a harmless Julia for the numbers! For the numberssss!

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Hopefully we can get a Kate-2021 repeat and get an ASCAT pass/TS winds during an overnight convective burst

[zhukm29]

One last try for 11L with DMAX, but unlike Kate, it probably won't win the ASCAT lottery (next pass seems to be around 12z, and there's no guarantee it'll hit, knowing ASCAT).

[FireRat]

https://i.ibb.co/JCF6JY8/goes16-ir-11-L-202209282355.gif

One last try for 11L with DMAX, but unlike Kate, it probably won't win the ASCAT lottery (next pass seems to be around 12z, and there's no guarantee it'll hit, knowing ASCAT).

Alright, this is a TS... enough lollygagging
If the shorties had been named this season, we could actually have a chance to meet the original 20 NS they were predicting back in June, for the total numbers.
Of course, Ian would probably have been Karl instead.

[zhukm29]

https://i.ibb.co/JCF6JY8/goes16-ir-11-L-202209282355.gif

One last try for 11L with DMAX, but unlike Kate, it probably won't win the ASCAT lottery (next pass seems to be around 12z, and there's no guarantee it'll hit, knowing ASCAT).

Alright, this is a TS... enough lollygagging
If the shorties had been named this season, we could actually have a chance to meet the original 20 NS they were predicting back in June, for the total numbers.
Of course, Ian would probably have been Karl instead.

The number of shorties in a season is inversely correlated with the number of times ASCAT misses a system when we need it to hit (which is basically like every time, minus Kate)

95L and this system are good candidates for reconsideration during the post-season. 95L had TS-force winds, a fairly well-defined LLC, and convection that persisted through the night of 9/7 to 9/8, but by the time we found out that it did have a LLC and TS-force winds, the system was so badly sheared that it was too late to pull the trigger.

With TD 11, this intense convective blowup was very similar to Kate, who was also stuck as a TD for the longest time because we had no ASCAT data. We might not be so lucky this time around though. But yeah, maybe we wouldn't have to look for a new "I" name had one of the earlier shorty candidates been designated!

Also, side note: why did PTC 4 have to happen... if it didn't, then this could have been 10L, which would continue that 10L curse (although Hermine wasn't any better, but a nameless 10L would be more fitting)

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Poof

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 29
Location: 19.1°N 38.1°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

The structure of the system this afternoon has continued to go
downhill. The circulation fidelity has become increasingly diffuse
and stretched out in a north-to-south fashion. What little deep
convection remains is displaced about 100 n mi to the
north-northeast of the center and also lacks sufficient organization
to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the final
advisory and the system is now considered to be a post-tropical
remnant low, albeit one that is likely to open up into a surface
trough at any time.

In general the poorly-defined center still appears to be mostly on
track, moving to the northwest at 320/12 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue until the elongated circulation completely
degenerates into a surface trough over the central Atlantic basin.
A 12 hour point is mainly provided for continuity purposes, which
lies along the fairly tightly clustered consensus aids.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 38.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/0600Z 20.6N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin