ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

The NHC while awesome for hurricane track still has a lot to learn (like all of us) about intensity forecasting.

I’m calling Ian a Cat 5. Personal opinion based on experience.

Chuck

[caneman]

Posting for caneman - this is a pic of the water, or rather the lack of it, in his canal near Indian Rocks...

FYI, the code instruction I posted is not working, need to copy the BBCode box there, then put it in the IMG tags. Sorry!

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Jjjx732/20220928-091135.jpg [/url]

Thank you.

[ThunderForce]

According to the SPC, Ian and its bands will allow for slight and enhanced severe weather today which includes tornadoes. They're saying that the south-central peninsula and the Space Coast in particular have the highest chance of seeing tornadoes, and that there is the possibility for them to be strong EF2+ ones.

Even if you're outside of Ian's hurricane-force winds, please be very careful if you're in one of Ian's rain bands. The storm was spitting out tornadoes left and right last night and it is possible that it may resume doing so later today.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Winds howling out there now. Just a few showers here on radar. Gusting to over 40 MPH at times

[Weatherboy1]

Last few radar frames appear to show the eastern eyewall about to touch Sanibel Island.

[Iceresistance]

The last time that Southern Florida was hit by a CAT 5 was Andrew at Miami in 1992 from the east from The Bahamas.

Here coming from the west? I don't think that has ever happened before.

[Kingarabian]

Prayers to everyone in its path.

[GCANE]

Water receded about 200 yards Charlotte Harbor

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/l3RdO3u.gif
According to the SPC, Ian and its bands will allow for slight and enhanced severe weather today which includes tornadoes. They're saying that the south-central peninsula and the Space Coast in particular have the highest chance of seeing tornadoes, and that there is the possibility for them to be strong EF2+ ones.

Even if you're outside of Ian's hurricane-force winds, please be very careful if you're in one of Ian's rain bands. The storm was spitting out tornadoes left and right last night and it is possible that it may resume doing so later today.

Was just about to post that. 10% tornado areas in a TC aren't too common, so this is likely going to be a pretty big deal unfortunately.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is going to be Mexico Beach all over again except in a much higher populated area. This will devastate Florida's economy

[Blown Away]

Not moving to much

[sbcc]

Posting for caneman - this is a pic of the water, or rather the lack of it, in his canal near Indian Rocks...

FYI, the code instruction I posted is not working, need to copy the BBCode box there, then put it in the IMG tags. Sorry!

https://i.ibb.co/Jjjx732/20220928-091135.jpg

Thank you.

Happy to help, when it settles down shoot me a PM and we can practice in the off topic section.

ETA - never mind, you got it figured out, you da man!

[WiscoWx02]

The NHC while awesome for hurricane track still has a lot to learn (like all of us) about intensity forecasting.

I’m calling Ian a Cat 5. Personal opinion based on experience.

Chuck

I agree, the NHC will very unlikely upgrade it though. Wouldn’t make a difference anyways, still going to be a catastrophic event.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The last time that Southern Florida was hit by a CAT 5 was Andrew at Miami in 1992 from the east from The Bahamas.

Here coming from the west? I don't think that has ever happened before.

Andrew and Charley were relatively small compact storms. This is whole entirely different beast

[Iceresistance]

After those 2 planes, when is the next recon if any?

[Teban54]

Food for thought:

In its last 6 hours before the Cuba landfall, Ian intensified from 90 kts to officially 110 kts (+20 kts). Many people here speculated it might have been a low-end Cat 4 (115 kts) at landfall.

Ian is now 105 kts and still has 15 hours before landfall.

Ian intensified by 30 kts (105 -> 135) in the 8 hours following this comment made at 11pm last night.

[Hurricane2022]

This actual recon mission ended?

[Teban54]

Gulf stream juice creates fully presented category 5 appearance...Slow grinding turn looks like it might be happening...National Hurricane Center says 18 foot surge possible...House is toast...

Sanibel (the user), I vividly remember when you said this might be the storm for Sanibel (the island), back when model runs and the NHC forecast were just shifting south and not even at the island yet. Unfortunately, that fear came true in the worst way possible.

Many prayers.

[ElectricStorm]

This actual recon mission ended?

On TT is says it's finished but it looks like they turned around and started descending again, so maybe they decided to get one more pass. If so that's a massive W for them

[typhoonty]

It was relayed to me that they are hesitant to upgrade to a 5 because the pressure is too high and they would rather use a blend the FL winds of the AF and NOAA. Eric Blake said they could go 135 or 140 kt

Ian is still intensifying but even if they don’t go cat 5 today it has far more evidence than Michael to support an upgrade to 5.

I live in Iona right on the Caloosahatchee and have accepted that I will probably lose everything except my life because I evacuated to Fort Lauderdale last night. My godmother though stayed in zone A and is in grave danger