ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1575127538178953220

[MarioProtVI]

Was not expecting Ian to be on threshold of C5 this morning, especially after how it was last night. One thing I should note is that the 160 kt FL cited was at 750 mb rather then 700 mb so I think that’s why they didn’t pull the trigger but still very damn close. It’ll likely be another Michael situation where we find out it’s true intensity in TCR next spring. Unless NHC decides the eye continuing to clear and radar velocities continue increasing is enough but I doubt it given how conservative they’ve been with this upgrade. There’s a recon scheduled for noon but I doubt it’ll make it in time before it makes landfall but if it does that could be what determines if Ian has indeed reached C5. Either way this literally is as close as you can get to the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario happening even if it’s just slightly south of Tampa. Extremely concerned for those in the path of the eyewall.

[tronbunny]

Keep the boots-on-the-ground reporting going on here.

Live reports of the water and wind are important for us here. The weather channel folks are holed up I’m sure in cozy hotel rooms above the surge. They give good coverage but nothing like what we have here with multiple posters directly or indirectly in the path of Ian.

Please note that the videos you will see of this disaster will in no way capture the intensity of the experience. It is almost beyond words to watch buildings seemingly explode when the Fists of God come bearing down.

Chuck

Abrams is staying at someone's house in Englewood apparently.

She's from around there
OK report from Kissimmee. been gusting 20mph with squalls. probably have at least 2" of rain since 9-10pm last night. 982mb/28.97hg 72F on my back porch
I see a clear spot on the radar between here and Okeechobee.

[wxman57]

Remarkably quiet radar presentation to the east of the eye.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fnJpktW/eye.png [/url]

Yes it’s odd for such a powerful hurricane. What’s the cause of that?

Fairly busy today. I saw the weak eastern eyewall. I think some dry air wrapped around to that area.

[Sanibel]

It was relayed to me that they are hesitant to upgrade to a 5 because the pressure is too high and they would rather use a blend the FL winds of the AF and NOAA. Eric Blake said they could go 135 or 140 kt

Ian is still intensifying but even if they don’t go cat 5 today it has far more evidence than Michael to support an upgrade to 5.

I live in Iona right on the Caloosahatchee and have accepted that I will probably lose everything except my life because I evacuated to Fort Lauderdale last night. My godmother though stayed in zone A and is in grave danger

I have relatives at Winkler and Summerlin who said they are OK with no surge...Car is getting bucked by moaning gusts at airport but relatively not that bad here...Iona is deeper in to Zone A than my relatives place...Next hours will tell...Punch seems to be in eyewall core...

[dpep4]

I went to bed at 2:30 eastern and the highest storm surge forecast was 8-12 feet, now as it is almost or possibly too late for many to evacuate it's jumped to 12-18'. A whole lot of people would have evacuated had they been told that possibility yesterday/last night. If the surge ends up verify at 15+' that will be the biggest and possibly deadliest fail that I can recall from the NHC. Inexcusable, there needs to be hell to pay and some reforms.

I've long said that the NHC needs to add a worst possible case number for storm surge, instead of getting hung up on bureaucratic precision guidelines. Make it clear that it is a worst case and not predicted/likely in their estimation, and keep with their best effort forecasting that they currently do. But they need to let people know the worst possibility so people can plan accordingly. Type 1 vs Type 2 error.

For days the NHC has said a Cat.4 was possible, so people had warning for that. I don't care much about the board's Cat 4/Cat 5 argument of the moment, that's close enough and the intensity forecast is the toughest and where the science is challenged the most. Maybe could have mentioned more the possibility of Cat. 5, it could have made a difference in some evacuation decisions, but Cat 4 is pretty bad as i. Thankfully the FL building codes are very good (though lots of mobile homes down there).

With so much stupid housing development on so much low lying land, it's the surge prediction that mattered the most. There's no reason not to make a simple change to, "Storm surge could reach 8 to 12', and while not expected, if the storm strengthens to Cat 5 a worst case surge of 18' is possible." Stating that yesterday probably would have gotten more people to evacuate some of these housing developments with average elevations such as 7'.

Not trying to start a big diversionary topic, they'll be time for that later so I won't bring it up again until the storm has dissipated. But I've long held the opinion that they need to be more open and clearly communication actual worst case numbers. This may be about to play out into a tragedy. I hope I'm wrong about the impacts and that the surge doesn't reach what's possible.

(To clarify, I'm not in FL and not at risk.)

[jasons2k]

I’m watching channel 2/7 out of Ft. Myers and an Anchor is talking about the storm surge and advising people to get up to the “highest floor possible”

NO! The higher floors may have windows blowing-out. The winds increase as you to go up. To escape the surge, the 3rd or 4th floor will do just fine. I would not want to be 20 floors up in that wind, even with cat 5 rated windows. The debris can still cause them to blow.

[sbcc]

About 5 minutes after I posted that Charlotte Harbor webcam link, it started buffering.

Too many S2K users on it now. We shot it down.

[Jr0d]

Just checked on my house in Key West, we got about a foot of water inside. A lot of clean up, not sure about the extent of the damage, I just took a quick look around.

We got a hotel room yesterday because of the flood concern. Did not think it would be this bad.

The surge had to have been a few feet higher on the south side of the island, the station that measures water level is on the west side and was sheltered by the harbor and slightly lee of the winds when the surge peaked.

[Iceresistance]

ADT ratings going down, hopefully starting a weakening trend, but Ian has shown himself time and time again that the satellite can fool you into thinking he's weaker.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

It was relayed to me that they are hesitant to upgrade to a 5 because the pressure is too high and they would rather use a blend the FL winds of the AF and NOAA. Eric Blake said they could go 135 or 140 kt

Ian is still intensifying but even if they don’t go cat 5 today it has far more evidence than Michael to support an upgrade to 5.

I live in Iona right on the Caloosahatchee and have accepted that I will probably lose everything except my life because I evacuated to Fort Lauderdale last night. My godmother though stayed in zone A and is in grave danger

I have relatives at Winkler and Summerlin who said they are OK with no surge...Car is getting bucked by moaning gusts at airport but relatively not that bad here...Iona is deeper in to Zone A than my relatives place...Next hours will tell...Punch seems to be in eyewall core...

Thx for the update Sanibel, be safe my Storm2k friend!!!

[wxman57]

Note that the NHC's 12-16 ft surge into Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers is for the BEACH. Surge up the Caloosahatchee river into Ft. Myers could be 20-24 ft. Similar for Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. See the NHC's inundation graphic for the region. MANY areas under 9+ ft of water this afternoon. Far as I can tell, this will be the worst hurricane ever to strike the area. Charley in 2004 was strong, but tiny compared to Ian. Ian will be retired.

Josh Morgerman should get rare video of a daytime landfall. Any link to him or Mark Sudduth coverage?

[Jag95]

The eye wall is very near Sanibel with lighting popping just off the coast. Looks like Ian is easing in closer.

[FLpanhandle91]

Eye continues to warm.

[WeatherOrKnot]

She's from around there
OK report from Kissimmee. been gusting 20mph with squalls. probably have at least 2" of rain since 9-10pm last night.
I see a clear spot on the radar between here and Okeechobee.

I went to high school with her down here in Wellington, Fl. We were on the tennis team together. I’m not sure if she grew up here though.

Speaking of Wellington, we had a tornado touch down about a mile and a half from here during the night.

[Texas Snowman]

From radar, it seems that Sanibel Island is almost in the edge of the eye wall…

[CronkPSU]

is the NW side of this storm possibly stronger than the NE?

[Teban54]

Eye continues to warm.

If there's a silver lining, the CDO also warmed somewhat in recent frames.

Probably not any indication of weakening though, and even if it is, way too late at this point.

[Hurricane2022]

It would be very ironic to see Ian reach Category 5 but lose to Fiona as the deepest storm of the year