ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

206+

https://tropicwatch.info/windshigher.png

These are not 10m winds

[tolakram]

[johngaltfla]

So far in Nokomis. We be rocking. This is a most impressive storm for sure. I will try to provide updates until I lose internet.

[dhweather]

It's 9000 feet up, hope 185mph does not mix down to the surface.

[Fancy1001]

I really hate that we don’t have recon in at the most important time. It’ll be too late likely by the time they get there.

[tropicwatch]

206+

https://tropicwatch.info/windshigher.png

These are not 10m winds

I know they are not at the surface but surface winds should be increasing.

[sicktght311]

Good webcam for Cape Coral still functioning

https://youtu.be/U8KoHbmTdnU

[ronjon]

Wobbling north now. I know we're real time wobble watching but it's extremely critical to highest winds and surge now. That Northern eyewall is about 15 miles wide, contains lightning, and will have winds in excess if 100 mph. Likely lasting 2 hours for those in the path.

[Grumpy]

So far in Nokomis. We be rocking. This is a most impressive storm for sure. I will try to provide updates until I lose internet.

I'm just north of you in Sarasota. It's definitely picked up in the last couple of hours. Worst winds will be later this evening.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hot towers firing off in the NW eyewall again. Ian is not done.

[Iceresistance]

I really hate that we don’t have recon in at the most important time. It’ll be too late likely by the time they get there.

They're going to book it if they're not forced to turn back

AF307 Mission #29 into IAN
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1575142766547324929

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like AF307 is about to take off. Will probably get at least one pass in before landfall assuming there's no issues with the plane

[Cyclenall]

Just looked at 200mb vort at CIMSS.
Ian is pushing back the PV streamers to its west, making room for longer term intensification.

This was from a few nights ago, but I was wondering what causes those PV streamers out there in the GOM like that? Great to see you back GCANE!

Currently, its an unexpected turn of events but I wouldn't bet on a CAT5 landfall just due to the incredible rarity of US CAT5 LFs and the slow movement of Ian (and heading). Even if its one now. I give it 15% chance. 130-135 knot LF exponentially higher odds. I agree with those that think this is going to be the worst hurricane the west coast of FL has ever seen, this is history.

Much thanks Cyclenall.
The PV streamers are UL vorts along the trough. They push down on a TC and disrupt vertical stacking. Outflow from Ian and other convection can interact with a PV streamer and weaken it.

Thanks. I'd like to read more on the PV stuff but haven't found a good resource that allows me to understand it.

[Vdogg]

206+

https://tropicwatch.info/windshigher.png

Tornado maybe?

[tolakram]

Eye is now almost west of Sanibel, surge seems to have stopped rising for the moment.

[Teban54]

A few years ago, I took a quick look at the 2004 archives on this forum. I was a noob back then and didn't understand any technical details, but one comment I still remember from the Charley thread just before its landfall:

"Stop intensifying, Charley! You've proven your point!"

If only we can say the same to Ian and he will actually listen...

[Chemmers]

the amount off lighting around the storm is insane, i think it might be a good bet by the time the recon get there we will have a cat 5

[Cyclenall]

https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1575142766547324929?s=20&t=d7UrQIpzJ7SdFSVhPKFoUw

I was looking for the eye close-up, fascinating to see those clouds at the north part of the eye obscure the rotating eyewall; is it some blow off from shear or just remnant debris.

[Rail Dawg]

So far in Nokomis. We be rocking. This is a most impressive storm for sure. I will try to provide updates until I lose internet.

Absolutely. These types of reports are important.

Chuck