ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Mailbox cam is down

Periwinkle & Tarpon North still up


https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams

[weeniepatrol]

I think they’re waiting for the recon to get in to the storm before pulling the trigger on a cat five. You might as well just flip a coin at this point.

Honestly they may not be making it in time for landfall. Will be close

[Texas Snowman]

Reconnaissance flight: “…worst ever…”

 https://twitter.com/malkoff/status/1575147547689197571

[Iceresistance]

Any word on the radar velocities?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the SE eyewall broke apart and the band behind it is taking over. Interesting to watch that happen in real time on radar, looks like a bit of an eyewall meld

[zal0phus]

Regardless of recon, I feel like it's inevitable that Ian will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season analysis. It seems even stronger than Michael. Unreal that two Category 5 landfalls may happen within 4 years of each other

[skyline385]

Wow the buzz saw shape being caused by the mesovortices inside the eye, never seen something like this




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[jasons2k]

 https://twitter.com/malkoff/status/1575147547689197571

This and the hail reports are indicative of some of that dry air mixing-in, and contributing to vertical instability.

[Rail Dawg]

Man I don’t wanna watch Reed Timmer die

https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu/stat ... 90050?s=21

This is why I retired last year after chasing 16 hurricanes.

The new brand of chasers are coming in. I used to be all alone in the beginning with a parking lot garage only filled with locals escaping the storm.

But about 10 years ago the vehicles all decked out with observation equipment and cameras started showing up. Then a few years ago the YouTube/TikTok click-chasers started showing up. Watched two of them almost get killed in Hurricane Michael.

They left the garage in Panama City and went to Mexico Beach to catch the stadium effect. Young kids to me and I warned them not to leave the safety of the garage. They did and you can watch the video of their car being washed out to sea and them escaping to a flooded home on the beach.

These newer chasers are going to learn how storm-surge kills.

Chuck

[Kazmit]

Practically every home in Cape Coral has a canal next to it. I can only imagine what the flooding will be like.

[vbhoutex]

Just saw 196mph winds at 9000 feet. Combined with the eye clearing out on radar, the burst of convection on the western side, I'm concerned we will not see any weakening until after landfall.

I really hope everyone took the warnings very seriously, as this is a very serious hurricane.

Unfortunately already seeing reports of people stranded. First responders quit responding at least a couple of hours ago due to safety concerns.

[dhweather]

There are going to be many people who think that watching a video of a Cat 5 gives them understanding of the power. It absolutely does not. There is going to be a moment as the water rises and the Fists of God come raining down when they will realize they made a critical error.

This is extremely accurate.

[FLLurker32]

I’m very concerned with Ian’s history of strengthening beyond NHC forecast. If this continues we may not see it exit the state as a tropical storm. Impacts could be higher throughout the heart of the state. Central Florida as a whole already has ground saturation from an already busy rainy season. A lot of FL is going to go dark in the next 24-36 hours.

It’s a great time to say a huge thank you to the linemen standing by.

[Aric Dunn]

I am doing periodic live streams from punta Gorda here.

Next stream as soon as eyewall begins. Surge and wind damage will be very high from this "cat 5".

https://www.facebook.com/TTHC-Hurricane ... 354981427/

[NevadaFan18]

This is has got to be the most anticipated, gut-wrenching recon flight in recent history.

[tolakram]

[Sciencerocks]

[johngaltfla]

https://i.imgur.com/rSDAjTV.gif

I am in the path of that?

[kevin]

Regardless of recon, I feel like it's inevitable that Ian will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season analysis. It seems even stronger than Michael. Unreal that two Category 5 landfalls may happen within 4 years of each other

Yes I think that unfortunately similar to Michael the damage this is about to cause will become another strong argument towards a cat 5 ugrade. Not that 135/140 kt really matters for the people in Ian's track right now, either way they're about to experience the storm of a lifetime for that region. I hope everyone got to a safe place.

[gailwarning]

Right now I would be in a parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. My truck was my survival. In it was everything I needed to survive two weeks if I couldn’t get out after a storm.

I would be one of those dummies walking around as the eyewall approaches. However I also know there is a very safe place for the truck so there are no worries. You know when it’s time to hightail it to the garage.

You know there is a monster just 10 hours away. Every moment you feel and see the changes. You still can drive away and not endure the misery of the aftermath but you are committed to a Cat 5 hurricane.

There are going to be many people who think that watching a video of a Cat 5 gives them understanding of the power. It absolutely does not. There is going to be a moment as the water rises and the Fists of God come raining down when they will realize they made a critical error.

I loved going into these. I don’t take pictures or video because of what I said… you have to be there to feel it. I wasn’t there for the clicks. We may lose some hurricane chasers in Ian because it’s downright foolish to chase a Cat 5 without several smaller storms under your belt.

This is a major disaster unfolding. Please keep the info rolling in.

Chuck

Please contact the Mike's Weather Page guy. He thinks he's a storm chaser now and I'm thinking he's gonna get himself in a world of hurt.