ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CryHavoc]

I typed this out during Michael which hadn't been upgraded yet:

Important to note -- the operational difference between a 155mph cat 4 and a 160mph cat 5 is nil. This is semantics for impact -- Ian is catastrophic. Even if he were upgraded to cat 5 right now, it's such a minor difference that we really shouldn't even focus on it.

[skillz305]

https://imgur.com/1iT6WkR

Looks NE to me

[PTPatrick]

given the lopsidedness of it when all is said and done I wouldnt be surprised to see some of the worst wind damage confined to the area between Venice and Port Charlotte and their barrier island areas, while wind damage drops off from there south eastword. Of course surge is going to be terrible in those places so it could create a bit of a tail of 2 storms....the folks on the NW side who got the wind and the folks on the east side who got the surge. all things being equal Id probably rather have property in Englewood than Fort Meyers...water just does a number on everything.

[gailwarning]

Very worried for the poster Sanibel right now.

Fortunately he evacuated.

[Iceresistance]

FL511 still has working cameras on I-75 in SW Florida

[galaxy401]

23 people are missing after a boat carrying migrants sank between Florida and Cuba in Hurricane Ian.

[cheezyWXguy]

Going in for another pass in the SE quad, hopefully they turn W or SW after getting in the eye.

[kassi]

From what I've seen, Brett Adair is chasing and hasn't posted in over 2 hours. He was in Punta Gorda for his last video. His last comment was "about time to turn and burn."

Has anyone heard anything?

[Iceresistance]

First Eyewall dropsonde from AF307, it's at the Southern Eyewall


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Southern-Eyewall-of-Ian-from-AF307.png

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just glad the rain totals have backed off a bit compared to what we were seeing a day or two ago....The wind is bad enough...

[CryHavoc]

Camera in Ft Myers Beach reportedly 12 feet off the ground is now completely submerged.

[tolakram]

[Sciencerocks]

Camera in Ft Myers Beach reportedly 12 feet off the ground is now completely submerged.

What is the highest point in ft.Myers? Do you believe that the city could completely go under?

[Extratropical94]

First Eyewall dropsonde from AF307, it's at the Southern Eyewall

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Southern-Eyewall-of-Ian-from-AF307.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Southern-Eyewall-of-Ian-from-AF307.png

There was another one in the NW eyewall, but it wasn't picked up by Tropical Tidbits

963mb 0° (from the N) 126 knots (145 mph)
960mb 0° (from the N) 126 knots (145 mph)
955mb 5° (from the N) 118 knots (136 mph)
949mb 10° (from the N) 129 knots (148 mph)
942mb 10° (from the N) 130 knots (150 mph)
937mb 10° (from the N) 136 knots (157 mph)
932mb 20° (from the NNE) 132 knots (152 mph)
924mb 25° (from the NNE) 140 knots (161 mph)
915mb 25° (from the NNE) 133 knots (153 mph)
909mb 30° (from the NNE) 122 knots (140 mph)
897mb 30° (from the NNE) 115 knots (132 mph)
893mb 30° (from the NNE) 120 knots (138 mph)
888mb 30° (from the NNE) 116 knots (133 mph)
879mb 35° (from the NE) 120 knots (138 mph)
867mb 45° (from the NE) 110 knots (127 mph)
855mb 45° (from the NE) 129 knots (148 mph)
850mb 45° (from the NE) 129 knots (148 mph)
831mb 55° (from the NE) 134 knots (154 mph)
810mb 65° (from the ENE) 114 knots (131 mph)
767mb 70° (from the ENE) 138 knots (159 mph)
732mb 80° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
724mb 85° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
696mb 95° (from the E) 120 knots (138 mph)

[CryHavoc]

https://i.imgur.com/FhX2WEh.png

Ian continues to strengthen as he makes landfall. After a lifetime of watching hurricanes, this is something that will always surprise me to see.

[skillz305]

How fast are they really projecting Ian to lose his strength. From cat 4(5) to a tropical storm by time of reaching ECFL?

[tolakram]

[CryHavoc]

Camera in Ft Myers Beach reportedly 12 feet off the ground is now completely submerged.

What is the highest point in ft.Myers? Do you believe that the city could completely go under?

AFAIK there isn't much above ground there beyond 10-20 feet. It's absolutely possible given the historic storm surge being predicted, which has been lagging behind Ian based on strength. 20+ft of surge is not out of the question.

[CronkPSU]

How fast are they really projecting Ian to lose its strength. From cat 4(5) to a tropical storm by time of reaching ECFL?

11 AM discussion said it could still be near cat 1 strength when it reaches the East Coast

[FLLurker32]

The turn from NNE to NE will be critical in terms of impacts as it moves through the state. I’ve seen posts from people writing it off because the track line isn’t next to them anymore without any thought to the cone that still over them.