ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1575202655567491072

[mantis83]

W eyewall: 111 kt FL, 120 kt SFMR, extrap 937.9mb.

Clearly weakened due to land interaction, considering this was where the strongest winds (160 kt FL) were measured before landfall. I wonder what if they went into the W eyewall on the first pass, but it's understandable they might have avoided it due to safety concerns.

That's the back side of the storm. There may have been a bit of land interaction, but the last passes supported about 130 kt.

agreed!

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1575203103334449164




This is about where the Charley comparison ends though. Much bigger size, slower, worse storm surge...

Oh, and one more similarity: Both were expected to hit Tampa until essentially just before landfall.

[MarioProtVI]

Now that Ian has made landfall the impacts are going to be catastrophic since this is literally Charley supersized (landfall location, strength and pressure). I think there’s a strong chance we see a post season upgrade in the vein of Michael since recon, radar and satellite data all supported a C5 peak of 140 kt around 12-13z this morning. It’s weakened since then but still.

Also if it does happen it’ll be extremely cursed for the strongest storm this season since Fiona was 932 mb but only was 115 kt. 130/932 vs 160/937 would be beyond cursed lol. Unless the Caribbean spits out something even stronger then both of them in October which is not impossible (particularly the second have of the month where conditions look better)

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1575205544293388288

[Teban54]

[zal0phus]

Now that Ian has made landfall the impacts are going to be catastrophic since this is literally Charley supersized (landfall location, strength and pressure). I think there’s a strong chance we see a post season upgrade in the vein of Michael since recon, radar and satellite data all supported a C5 peak of 140 kt around 12-13z this morning. It’s weakened since then but still.

Also if it does happen it’ll be extremely cursed for the strongest storm this season since Fiona was 932 mb but only was 115 kt. 130/932 vs 160/937 would be beyond cursed lol. Unless the Caribbean spits out something even stronger then both of them in October which is not impossible (particularly the second have of the month where conditions look better)

Somehow I have a feeling this will happen. It doesn't seem terribly unlikely that even Ian will be surpassed this year if the predictions of a very backloaded season do pan out

[rwfromkansas]

OMG!!! Just got the most disturbing news....

One of our neighbors' husband just passed away. She is all alone at their home - WITH HIM. EMS WILL NOT COME as the winds are over 45 mph......

This storm is so terrible already.....

From the storm? That's terrible. My prayers are with her, as I can't imagine going through that with this weather tragedy as well.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1575203103334449164




This is about where the Charley comparison ends though. Much bigger size, slower, worse storm surge...

Oh, and one more similarity: Both were expected to hit Tampa until essentially just before landfall.

It's ridiculous how lucky Tampa is with major hits with the last one being in 1921.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[Sanibel]

Relative reports wind-driven rain entering Winkler condo with damage...Big tree down...Much worse violent winds at Airport...Worst yet...Too strong to open car door...Blasting gusts...

[tolakram]

[Iceresistance]

Punta Gorda's station is somehow still working, 61 sustained with 92 mph gusts.

Fort Myers - Southwest FL Intl is reporting winds at 58 mph and gusts to 83 mph.

[Meteorcane]

Poor Englewood... looked like they would at least get the eye for a bit, but the jog east will keep them in the north eyewall for an extended period of time. I would guess you would see the worst wind damage of the storm in that area.

[FireRat]

Now that Ian has made landfall the impacts are going to be catastrophic since this is literally Charley supersized (landfall location, strength and pressure). I think there’s a strong chance we see a post season upgrade in the vein of Michael since recon, radar and satellite data all supported a C5 peak of 140 kt around 12-13z this morning. It’s weakened since then but still.

Also if it does happen it’ll be extremely cursed for the strongest storm this season since Fiona was 932 mb but only was 115 kt. 130/932 vs 160/937 would be beyond cursed lol. Unless the Caribbean spits out something even stronger then both of them in October which is not impossible (particularly the second have of the month where conditions look better)

Somehow I have a feeling this will happen. It doesn't seem terribly unlikely that even Ian will be surpassed this year if the predictions of a very backloaded season do pan out

Wholeheartedly agree with you guys!
October and even November could give us a Cat 5 in a year like this. Ian by himself however has already made 2022 infamous!

[Texas Snowman]

Something to watch…

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1575207427405774849

[MetsIslesNoles]

I have relatives that stayed on Marco Island. Tried to get a text out to them. All I got back was "Water is rising. Nervous." And Marco Island PD reports all roads and bridges impassable.

[Meteorcane]

Punta Gorda's station is somehow still working, 61 sustained with 92 mph gusts.

Fort Myers - Southwest FL Intl is reporting winds at 58 mph and gusts to 83 mph.

Currently gusting to 124 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KPGD&hours=72

[Maryellen46]

I have relatives that stayed on Marco Island. Tried to get a text out to them. All I got back was "Water is rising. Nervous." And Marco Island PD reports all roads and bridges impassable.

I have relatives on Marco that stayed too. My mom talked to her and told me they were nervous about the water too. They live on a canal.

[kassi]

 https://twitter.com/wxkaitlin/status/1575188234010705920

[Iceresistance]

Punta Gorda's station is somehow still working, 61 sustained with 92 mph gusts.

Fort Myers - Southwest FL Intl is reporting winds at 58 mph and gusts to 83 mph.

Currently gusting to 124 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KPGD&hours=72

Gusting to 124 again.

Fort Myers - Southwest FL Intl is gusting to 98