ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

12Z models

[Blown Away]

12Z models
https://i.imgur.com/YDdLAcq.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xp0FcWG.gif

https://i.imgur.com/0rOBnxJ.gif

Geez, GFS says 2 days to cross over FL Peninsula.

[jdray]

12Z models
https://i.imgur.com/YDdLAcq.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xp0FcWG.gif

https://i.imgur.com/0rOBnxJ.gif

Geez, GFS says 2 days to cross over FL Peninsula.

Considering I'm NW of the path of Ian, I'll take the model with the fewest days to my south and southwest please. That path and timing of movement would produce a lot of rain

[underthwx]

Do the models show anything to get Ian moving along faster, and making a quicker passage through Florida, and other areas in the forecast path?(my niece lives in Jacksonville, I'm concerned about her safety as well as everyone)

[Kazmit]

The fact that models have this restrengthening before the second landfall in South Carolina...

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/usawx/status/1575236196619255808

[ConvergenceZone]

The fact that models have this restrengthening before the second landfall in South Carolina...

Thank goodness that forecast just has it as a tropical storm landfalling there. I think the saving grace is the short and quick trip across the water.....

[Hurricane Mike]

Video update with images of some of the impacts thus far
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3odV6pEXABY

[Hurrilurker]

So...season cancel?

Wondering how much rain this will bring off the coast up north. Models have it heading up through Appalachia, a lot of hilly country there, could be devastating flash flooding over a huge area, especially if it makes a detour into the Atlantic first and picks up more moisture.

[dspguy]

The fact that models have this restrengthening before the second landfall in South Carolina...

Thank goodness that forecast just has it as a tropical storm landfalling there. I think the saving grace is the short and quick trip across the water.....

What the public is aware of in SC is "a lot of rain and some wind" (actual governor statement). What NHC is saying right now is expect a strong TS or a weak Cat1. I guess we'll see what happens. I'm not a meteorologist by any extent. I suppose I'm surprised it could intensify with a short trip with about half of the storm over land. I figured the eyewall would break apart with one side of the storm experiencing friction from land and the other side over water.

[Tyler Penland]

Wondering how much rain this will bring off the coast up north. Models have it heading up through Appalachia, a lot of hilly country there, could be devastating flash flooding over a huge area, especially if it makes a detour into the Atlantic first and picks up more moisture.

I live in WNC and the flooding threat is definitely concerning. GSP has been pretty bullish on totals. Fortunately its been dry lately so we can stand a bit of rain but this time of year the trees aren't taking in as much so the ground will saturate a little quicker.

One thing working in our favor (in the NC mountains at least) is the CAD currently in place. The NE wind could keep a fresh supply of lower dewpoints to keep rain rates down.

Gonna be an interesting few days. GFS is a worst case scenario with this setup, widespread 8-10" along the escarpment.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[MrJames]

00z

[tolakram]

18Z GFS


ICON

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

[Teban54]

18Z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/uPU9Ajz.gif

Seeing this kind of pressure on the normally conservative Euro is really ominous. I have a feeling SC will get a stronger storm than they expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[birddogsc]

18Z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/uPU9Ajz.gif

Seeing this kind of pressure on the normally conservative Euro is really ominous. I have a feeling SC will get a stronger storm than they expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I also love the models that spin the remnants around in western VA and send it back.

[GTStorm]

00z

https://i.imgur.com/IIO6GFh.png

The east-east-east trend continues…I'm guessing landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, maybe even Outer Banks at this rate. Who would've thunk it yesterday...

[SouthernBreeze]

00z

https://i.imgur.com/IIO6GFh.png

The east-east-east trend continues…I'm guessing landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, maybe even Outer Banks at this rate. Who would've thunk it yesterday...

Wondering what model leads you to think this? I know ICON at least is heading that way

[GTStorm]

00z

https://i.imgur.com/IIO6GFh.png

The east-east-east trend continues…I'm guessing landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, maybe even Outer Banks at this rate. Who would've thunk it yesterday...

Wondering what model leads you to think this? I know ICON at least is heading that way

NHC east coast landfall has been been shifting gradually eastward for the last few updates. Was a little concerned for SAV but becoming less and less so. 00z "early track" summary guidance seems to indicate continued shift east. Maybe Outer Banks is a stretch…but the NC / SC border definitely seems to be in play.

Don't pay any attention to me, I'm just an amateur...

[SouthernBreeze]

I'm really looking forward to first few model runs after Ian clears FL. When & where it clears & how much is left of it should help models narrow this down for us