ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Hurricane Ian makes landfall around the same area as Hurricane Charley did in 2004.

Not around the same area...in the EXACT same spot - Cayo Costa. Pretty eerie.

I’ve said it all along..all storms coming close to the Peace River will get drawn up into it. And it did

[LandoWill]

We've been in 40-60mph supposedly here in land o lakes. Hasn't been as much rain as I thought it would be, but that could also be perspective since the wind is blowing so hard. Trampoline so far is holding up, but i'd never leave it up again with the net on. Spent the entire day watching it like a hawk and adding more bags of pool salt and softener salt lol . Hopefully can get these next 3 hours,

The last time we had one come through I ended up roping the entire trampoline up and securing it to concrete posts. Glad my 2 oldest have outgrown wanting it. Got rid of it this summer finally.

Well I have a 6 year old, so we have a ways to go.. It's one of those expensive spring free types too. I probably should have taken the net down, but its a PITA to put together. I think we'll be fine. THe next big thing has been not losing power... some flickers every few hours or so. But, so far so good.. If you lose power, it's out for at least 48 hours i'd have to think at this point. Luckily duke isn't in ft Myers area AFAIK. But St Pete has 183k outages

[Drewsey]

The situation in Fort Meyers is tragic. My stepfather's family last called at 4:55 PM from Royal Woods, saying that the walls were cracking, water was in the house and rising up to their necks, and that the entire neighborhood was underwater. Since then the water has risen another few feet and we haven't heard from them, my family is driving down to Florida tomorrow to try to find them. Considering only two of them can swim and one just had back surgery (along with living in a one story house) I fear the worst

Are there any resources that could help them find what roads are passable? I really appreciate it, thank you everyone

You need to reach out to emergency management services. Attempting to drive there tomorrow is not a good idea, nevermind that Ft. Myers is under curfew. Get professional help for them.

My best wishes that they are healthy and just very wet.

This 100%. If things play out in any way like Ida, even Lafourche parish folks with proof of residence were not allowed back in the area for about a week. Emergency and power distribution crews had to go in first and ensure there were no major hazards first. I would plan for and expect checkpoints allowing only people with certain credentials through.

[Nimbus]

The situation in Fort Meyers is tragic. My stepfather's family last called at 4:55 PM from Royal Woods, saying that the walls were cracking, water was in the house and rising up to their necks, and that the entire neighborhood was underwater. Since then the water has risen another few feet and we haven't heard from them, my family is driving down to Florida tomorrow to try to find them. Considering only two of them can swim and one just had back surgery (along with living in a one story house) I fear the worst

Are there any resources that could help them find what roads are passable? I really appreciate it, thank you everyone

I only have the non-emergency number for Charlotte County. Check the website for the County Emergency Services Department. They are likely to have a Non-911 urgent phone number for info.
Perhaps cross post this on the Thread for local observations/help/check in.
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=3001569#p3000783

The emergency services have been having a little trouble themselves.
Further south in Naples

https://twitter.com/i/status/1575206199733424128

That fire station was probably located at 2 meters elevation Royal Woods is 1 or 2 meters.

I was up on my roof Monday to glue down shingles and scope out a place to camp if necessary.
Wooden ladder was much lighter than that damn Harbor Freight thing but I'm resting my back now.

It will dry out and they will likely survive.
There will be emergency ATV expeditions that won't have trouble with the washed out roads.
And they already know where the people sitting on their roofs are.

But yes this really is miserable

[FLLurker32]

We've been in 40-60mph supposedly here in land o lakes. Hasn't been as much rain as I thought it would be, but that could also be perspective since the wind is blowing so hard. Trampoline so far is holding up, but i'd never leave it up again with the net on. Spent the entire day watching it like a hawk and adding more bags of pool salt and softener salt lol . Hopefully can get these next 3 hours,

The last time we had one come through I ended up roping the entire trampoline up and securing it to concrete posts. Glad my 2 oldest have outgrown wanting it. Got rid of it this summer finally.

Well I have a 6 year old, so we have a ways to go.. It's one of those expensive spring free types too. I probably should have taken the net down, but its a PITA to put together. I think we'll be fine. THe next big thing has been not losing power... some flickers every few hours or so. But, so far so good.. If you lose power, it's out for at least 48 hours i'd have to think at this point. Luckily duke isn't in ft Myers area AFAIK. But St Pete has 183k outages

I had Duke during Irma. Took 2 weeks to get power restored. My cousin is one of the many linemen who are standing by to help. He was one of the guys standing behind DeSantis during his Lake City speech this morning. Grateful for what they do and their willingness to be displaced until the job is done.

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

[hipshot]

https://twitter.com/DanielleBreezy/status/1575247909431480338

That would have been friggin SCARY!!!!!

[jonj2040]

Here in south brevard (near sebastian inlet), last night's rain crested our canals, however we have not seen a drop of rain since about 230pm earlier today. The wind has however picked up considerably in the last hour. If it does begin to rain again it wouldn't take much for some minor low level flooding but I'm not sure how likely that is since most of the precipitable moisture seems to be going around to the north side of the circulation.

Will Ian's approach to the Atlantic affect where the rain is dumped as it is more able to tap into the gulf stream?

[AtlanticWind]

Not around the same area...in the EXACT same spot - Cayo Costa. Pretty eerie.

I’ve said it all along..all storms coming close to the Peace River will get drawn up into it. And it did

Powerful hurricanes are steered by the upper level atmosphere, no disrespect but that is just pseudoscience.

[FLLurker32]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

It looks to me like it’s starting to get pulled north a bit.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Curious if this means Ian will leave Florida sooner than expected and be over the waters of the Atlantic longer than expected before hitting the Carolinas.

[Aric Dunn]

I am posting this video from this morning during a drive through of the highest prone surge area along the bay at fort Meyers. We were all genuinely very concerned and talked to the front desk management to get the people staying in the 1st floor rooms to move higher. We do not know the outcome. But from the videos now coming out of the area if those people did not move or the homes and condos around it... Then I fear the worst as the water rose very rapidly.


https://fb.watch/fQHi3YFrJw/

This is the best western in north fort Meyers

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1575295758370308103

[CronkPSU]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

i think the way the eye has collapsed and all rain in the SE is gone is creating an optical illusion...appears to be right on track to me from IR

[bonitabeachbum]

So I bugged out. Live in Bonita Springs, bugged out to Miami on Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be blunt. I don't think the models did a good job at all on this one. GFS especially.

The only reason I bugged out is that I was watching every run (I have been tracking canes for work for 15 years) and talking to my professional met friend. I picked up on the trend to the east and also the repeated incorrect initialization of the storm as too far west. Once the 12z GFS came out on Tuesday I knew we had to go, but as of that morning NHC still had a Tampa track! The UKM was probably the only one that warned me all along, and man I hated that little bugger but it was right.

Anyway, kids are fine & house is fine, but someone smarter than me needs to figure out wtf the GFS was thinking and why models kept initializing so far east. It probably cost billions of dollars and maybe people's lives as well.

[jhpigott]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Ian looks like it will be back over the Atlantic by daybreak well further south than projected (exiting Vero Beach area) if it keeps on this heading/speed. At least to my amateur eye

[StormingB81]

https://twitter.com/FOCUSGradebook/status/1575255541261164544

This is fake, comments pointed out that it was from Michael.

And WFTV just played this video on air….

[Nuno]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Ian has consistently been moving east of the track. The NHC has been insisting that it is going to move due north any hour now by the cone and yet it continues drifting more NE than NNE.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is probably one of the scariest hurricanes I've ever tracked, and I am dead serious about this. I think the combination of Ian being the ludicrously 6th CONUS Cat 4+ landfalling hurricane in as many years, the storm hitting a region that has escaped severe Cat 4 landfalls for nearly 2 decades, and the storm hitting a relatively populated region make it a unique demon that will be remembered for many years.

[GTStorm]

Looking for a site where I can see radar with NHC track superimposed…any links? Thanks in advance!