ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beachside]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Ian looks like it will be back over the Atlantic by daybreak well further south than projected (exiting Vero Beach area) if it keeps on this heading/speed. At least to my amateur eye

The 9:00 NHC update had movement at 030, which looks like it would bring it out just north of Titusville. Interested to see the 11:00 update. Watching it closely here on the Space Coast, and hoping it passes North of me... I didn't put up my shutters on the North side of the house figuring I wouldn't get any North winds!!!

[Coolcruiseman]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Been watching WFTV. Tom Terry & his team were discussing that Ian may exit through Brevard county.

Also interesting explanations of the dry air being pulled in from the west (ie no rain here much of the day) as well as the cold air impact in terms of rain and winds in Daytona Beach. Reported Jacksonville is at 62 degrees.

[wx98]

I’ve said it all along..all storms coming close to the Peace River will get drawn up into it. And it did

Powerful hurricanes are steered by the upper level atmosphere, no disrespect but that is just pseudoscience.

Small geographic features can affect weather systems that happen upon their proximity. I wouldn't say that it is a complete coincidence that Ian tracked into exactly the same place as Charley. Charley did enter a little more from the south and exit more to the north (Ian has been tracking more NE to ENE as opposed to Charley's NNE). While atmospheric variables are the main drivers here, local geography can affect things in the short term.

[jhpigott]

Looking for a site where I can see radar with NHC track superimposed…any links? Thanks in advance!

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[CronkPSU]

Looking for a site where I can see radar with NHC track superimposed…any links? Thanks in advance!

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Geno]

Very cold in Tallahassee. 60 this morning, blowing all day. We probably won't even see any rain from it.

[skillz305]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Ian looks like it will be back over the Atlantic by daybreak well further south than projected (exiting Vero Beach area) if it keeps on this heading/speed. At least to my amateur eye

The 9:00 NHC update had movement at 030, which looks like it would bring it out just north of Titusville. Interested to see the 11:00 update. Watching it closely here on the Space Coast, and hoping it passes North of me... I didn't put up my shutters on the North side of the house figuring I wouldn't get any North winds!!!

The gusts in vero are picking up. It’s pretty wicked

[AdamFirst]

Gusting to near hurricane force in Okeechobee. There is a band setting up over the town; Ian is trying to draw energy from the lake.

 https://twitter.com/iembot_mlb/status/1575299849586495494

[CrazyC83]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Curious if this means Ian will leave Florida sooner than expected and be over the waters of the Atlantic longer than expected before hitting the Carolinas.

That is likely. Conditions are marginal, but could allow for it to get back to hurricane intensity or gain some intensity over the Atlantic.

[wx98]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Been watching WFTV. Tom Terry & his team were discussing that Ian may exit through Brevard county.

Also interesting explanations of the dry air being pulled in from the west (ie no rain here much of the day) as well as the cold air impact in terms of rain and winds in Daytona Beach. Reported Jacksonville is at 62 degrees.

On radar it appears the center is currently near/just south of Sebring. If it continues on the same trajectory it has been on since Punta Gorda, it will exit around Melbourne or Cape Canaveral.

[Coolcruiseman]

The gusts in vero are picking up. It’s pretty wicked

Gusting to 49 here in Melbourne now

[Coolcruiseman]

On radar it appears the center is currently near/just south of Sebring. If it continues on the same trajectory it has been on since Punta Gorda, it will exit around Melbourne or Cape Canaveral.

Which if that occurs would line up with one of the model runs from a couple days ago. (UKMET?)

[dukeblue219]

So I bugged out. Live in Bonita Springs, bugged out to Miami on Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be blunt. I don't think the models did a good job at all on this one. GFS especially.

The only reason I bugged out is that I was watching every run (I have been tracking canes for work for 15 years) and talking to my professional met friend. I picked up on the trend to the east and also the repeated incorrect initialization of the storm as too far west. Once the 12z GFS came out on Tuesday I knew we had to go, but as of that morning NHC still had a Tampa track! The UKM was probably the only one that warned me all along, and man I hated that little bugger but it was right.

Anyway, kids are fine & house is fine, but someone smarter than me needs to figure out wtf the GFS was thinking and why models kept initializing so far east. It probably cost billions of dollars and maybe people's lives as well.

Compare where we are today with twenty years ago when it was all GFDL and NOGAPS and whatever else. Models would swing storms like this from Texas to Louisiana to Florida and back 48 hours out.

The NHC made it clear that the middle of the west coast of Florida was at risk. I don't know what else they can do if people (speaking generally) see a track from the south pointed at Tampa and decide that means Ft Myers is safe. The actual point of landfall was targeted by multiple models a week out and within the NHC cone for days.

[FLLurker32]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Been watching WFTV. Tom Terry & his team were discussing that Ian may exit through Brevard county.

Also interesting explanations of the dry air being pulled in from the west (ie no rain here much of the day) as well as the cold air impact in terms of rain and winds in Daytona Beach. Reported Jacksonville is at 62 degrees.

On radar it appears the center is currently near/just south of Sebring. If it continues on the same trajectory it has been on since Punta Gorda, it will exit around Melbourne or Cape Canaveral.

That’s within the NHC cone. The cone is so small when this close that one wobble can put you on the other side of it.

[FLLurker32]

So I bugged out. Live in Bonita Springs, bugged out to Miami on Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be blunt. I don't think the models did a good job at all on this one. GFS especially.

The only reason I bugged out is that I was watching every run (I have been tracking canes for work for 15 years) and talking to my professional met friend. I picked up on the trend to the east and also the repeated incorrect initialization of the storm as too far west. Once the 12z GFS came out on Tuesday I knew we had to go, but as of that morning NHC still had a Tampa track! The UKM was probably the only one that warned me all along, and man I hated that little bugger but it was right.

Anyway, kids are fine & house is fine, but someone smarter than me needs to figure out wtf the GFS was thinking and why models kept initializing so far east. It probably cost billions of dollars and maybe people's lives as well.

Compare where we are today with twenty years ago when it was all GFDL and NOGAPS and whatever else. Models would swing storms like this from Texas to Louisiana to Florida and back 48 hours out.

The NHC made it clear that the middle of the west coast of Florida was at risk. I don't know what else they can do if people (speaking generally) see a track from the south pointed at Tampa and decide that means Ft Myers is safe. The actual point of landfall was targeted by multiple models a week out and within the NHC cone for days.

Some just don’t believe it or leave no matter what. When it was projected for Tampa I had to beg my cousin to leave St.Pete and she was in a mandatory evacuation zone with a 1 year old. She just didn’t understand what storm surge is.

[Sciencerocks]

[dukeblue219]

To add a bit, the NHC forecast track was dead on top of Sanibel for 8am Wednesday strike at 11am LAST FRIDAY when this thing was a depression. They nailed landfall location, time within 4 hours, and showed it as a major hurricane 120 hours ahead when it was a depression. The actual point of landfall NEVER left the forecast cone since then. That's phenomenal work.

[wx98]

One thought I had, and not trying to make light of the situation, but from start to finish, assuming it tracks into SC and eastern NC, Ian has been almost a mirror of Charley. Ian was just south of Charley in the Caribbean and just west while crossing Cuba and tracking toward Florida. Due to impact angle, it is now southeast of Charley's path across the peninsula.

It is, essentially, Charley 2.0: This Time, He's Bigger.

[jasons2k]

To be fair, Naples/Marco Island weren't even inside the cone in last night's 8PM CDT update, and they got some of the worst surge from this.

Something that will certainly be retrospected-on after the cleanup is finished.

[Beachside]

So I bugged out. Live in Bonita Springs, bugged out to Miami on Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be blunt. I don't think the models did a good job at all on this one. GFS especially.

The only reason I bugged out is that I was watching every run (I have been tracking canes for work for 15 years) and talking to my professional met friend. I picked up on the trend to the east and also the repeated incorrect initialization of the storm as too far west. Once the 12z GFS came out on Tuesday I knew we had to go, but as of that morning NHC still had a Tampa track! The UKM was probably the only one that warned me all along, and man I hated that little bugger but it was right.

Anyway, kids are fine & house is fine, but someone smarter than me needs to figure out wtf the GFS was thinking and why models kept initializing so far east. It probably cost billions of dollars and maybe people's lives as well.

Compare where we are today with twenty years ago when it was all GFDL and NOGAPS and whatever else. Models would swing storms like this from Texas to Louisiana to Florida and back 48 hours out.

The NHC made it clear that the middle of the west coast of Florida was at risk. I don't know what else they can do if people (speaking generally) see a track from the south pointed at Tampa and decide that means Ft Myers is safe. The actual point of landfall was targeted by multiple models a week out and within the NHC cone for days.

Some just don’t believe it or leave no matter what. When it was projected for Tampa I had to beg my cousin to leave St.Pete and she was in a mandatory evacuation zone with a 1 year old. She just didn’t understand what storm surge is.

My inlaws live in a low lying area of St. Pete. We begged them to leave for two days, and they resisted, but finally came to stay with us yesterday. So, of course, today, we heard about 73 times how they never should have left.

Next time, I can almost guarantee they won't leave. No matter the forecast.